Groundwater-level Anomalies Associated with a Hypothetical Preslip Prior to the Anticipated Tokai Earthquake: Detectability Using the Groundwater Observation Network of the Geological Survey of Japan,AIST

We infer the groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated M 8 Tokai earthquake, and evaluate the detectability of the anomalies using data from seven groundwater wells. We evaluate the detectability of the anomalies under the following assumptions: (1) an Mw 5.5–6.5 aseismic preslip event occurs at the plate boundary in and around the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake; (2) the total amount of the strain step at each observation associated with the preslip can be calculated by tensile and shear faulting based on the dislocation model; (3) a normalized strain history associated with the preslip is defined from the results of numerical simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws; and (4) the groundwater-level anomaly prior to the earthquake is proportional to the estimated history of the strain change associated with the preslip. We investigate the detection time of the anomaly at seven wells given an Mw 5.5, 6.0, or 6.5 aseismic preslip at one of the 272 grid points in and around the area of the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake. As a result, over the time interval between 1 and 48 hours prior to the hypothetical Tokai earthquake, we are able to detect at each of the seven wells a hypothetical Mw 6.5 preslip at 10–86 of the 272 grid points, an Mw 6 preslip at 0–19 grid points, and an Mw 5.5 preslip at 0–5 grid points.     

Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Network

Information included in this summary is based on more detailed reports published in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, vol. 31, no. 4, April 2006 (on the Internet at ). Edited by scientists at the Smithsonian, this bulletin includes reports provided by a worldwide network of correspondents. The reports contain the names and contact information for all sources. Please note that these reports are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. The Global Volcanism Program welcomes further reports of current volcanism, seismic unrest, monitoring data, and field observations.     

PLL Tracking Performance in the Presence of Oscillator Phase Noise

The tracking performance of a Phase Lock Loop (PLL) is affected by the influence of several error sources. In addition to thermal noise and dynamic stress error, oscillator phase noise can cause significant phase jitter which degrades the tracking performance. Oscillator phase noise is usually caused by two different effects: Allan deviation phase noise is caused by frequency instabilities of the receiver's reference oscillator and the satellite's frequency standard. It can be termed as system-inherent phase noise and is relevant for both static and dynamic applications. “External” phase noise, however, is caused by vibration and is a major problem for dynamic applications. In the context of this paper, both types of phase noise will be modeled and the resulting integrals will be evaluated for PLLs up to the third order. Besides, phase jitter induced by thermal noise and signal dynamics will also be discussed, thus providing all necessary formulas for analyzing the performance of a phase lock loop in case of different forms of stress. Since the main focus is centered on the effects of oscillator phase noise, the overall PLL performance is graphically illustrated with and without consideration of oscillator phase noise. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Spatial Characteristics of a Line and Their Application to Line Simplification

This paper discusses the spatial knowledge related to a line,and the characteristic points of lines is detected.According to the requirements of line generalization,new algorithms for identifying characteristic line points are presented.These characteristic points are used to improve the algorithms of line generalization.An algorithm for identifying bends is shown.In this paper,improved algorithms based on those by Douglas-Peucker,Visvalingam and Whyatt are shown.In this test,the progressive process of line generalization is emphasized.     

X-Ray Interferometry

For the astronomer, X-ray interferometry is the theory and practice of building dilute aperture telescopes for studying celestial X-ray sources. The short wavelengths and high surface brightness of X-ray sources will make the eventual scientific payoff very high, with direct imaging of the event horizons of black holes as the centerpiece. In this article, we review the history of X-ray interferometry and discuss the recent technical developments toward astronomical applications. We present several mission concepts and show they are achievable with todays technology.     

Infinite uncertainty,forgotten feedbacks,and cost-benefit analysis of climate policy

Tol (2003) questioned the applicability of expected cost-benefit analysis to global mitigation policy when he found evidence that the uncertainty surrounding estimates of the marginal damage of climate change could be infinite even if total damages were finite. Yohe (2003) suggested that this problem could be alleviated if international development aid were directed at eliminating the source of the problem – climate induced negative growth rates in a few regions along a handful of troublesome scenarios. The hypothesis about adding a second policy lever to the climate policy calculus is shown to hold, though perhaps not as robustly as originally thought. A portfolio of international policies with at least two independent tools can avoid infinite uncertainty on the margins and the associated implications for global mitigation policy at a reasonable price even in the relatively unlikely event that climate change causes negative economic growth in a region or two. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Recent Progress in the Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on Climate in China

Studies of the impacts of the Tibetan Plateau （TP） on climate in China in the last four years are reviewed. It is reported that temperature and precipitation over the TP have increased during recent decades. From satellite data analysis, it is demonstrated that most of the precipitation over the TP is from deep convection clouds. Moreover, the huge TP mechanical forcing and extraordinary elevated thermal forcing impose remarkable impacts upon local circulation and global climate. In winter and spring, stream flow is deflected by a large obstacle and appears as an asymmetric dipole, making East Asia much colder than mid Asia in winter and forming persistent rainfall in late winter and early spring over South China. In late spring, TP heating contributes to the establishment and intensification of the South Asian high and the abrupt seasonal transition of the surrounding circulations. In summer, TP heating in conjunction with the TP air pump cause the deviating stream field to resemble a cyclonic spiral, converging towards and rising over the TP. Therefore, the prominent Asian monsoon climate over East Asia and the dry climate over mid Asia in summer are forced by both TP local forcing and Eurasian continental forcing.
Due to the longer memory of snow and soil moisture, the TP thermal status both in summer and in late winter and spring can influence the variation of Eastern Asian summer rainfall. A combined index using both snow cover over the TP and the ENSO index in winter shows a better seasonal forecast.
On the other hand, strong sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau in spring contributes significantly to anchor the earliest Asian monsoon being over the eastern Bay of Bengal （BOB） and the western Indochina peninsula. Qualitative prediction of the BOB monsoon onset was attempted by using the sign of meridional temperature gradient in March in the upper troposphere, or at 400 hPa over the TP. It is also demonstrated by a numerical experiment and theoretical study that the heating over the TP lea     

The effect of mountainous topography on moisture exchange between the “surface” and the free atmosphere

Typical numerical weather and climate prediction models apply parameterizations to describe the subgrid-scale exchange of moisture, heat and momentum between the surface and the free atmosphere. To a large degree, the underlying assumptions are based on empirical knowledge obtained from measurements in the atmospheric boundary layer over flat and homogeneous topography. It is, however, still unclear what happens if the topography is complex and steep. Not only is the applicability of classical turbulence schemes questionable in principle over such terrain, but mountains additionally induce vertical fluxes on the meso-γ scale. Examples are thermally or mechanically driven valley winds, which are neither resolved nor parameterized by climate models but nevertheless contribute to vertical exchange. Attempts to quantify these processes and to evaluate their impact on climate simulations have so far been scarce. Here, results from a case study in the Riviera Valley in southern Switzerland are presented. In previous work, measurements from the MAP-Riviera field campaign have been used to evaluate and configure a high-resolution large-eddy simulation code (ARPS). This model is here applied with a horizontal grid spacing of 350 m to detect and quantify the relevant exchange processes between the valley atmosphere (i.e. the ground “surface” in a coarse model) and the free atmosphere aloft. As an example, vertical export of moisture is evaluated for three fair-weather summer days. The simulations show that moisture exchange with the free atmosphere is indeed no longer governed by turbulent motions alone. Other mechanisms become important, such as mass export due to topographic narrowing or the interaction of thermally driven cross-valley circulations. Under certain atmospheric conditions, these topographical-related mechanisms exceed the “classical” turbulent contributions a coarse model would see by several times. The study shows that conventional subgrid-scale parameterizations can indeed be far off from reality if applied over complex topography, and that large-eddy simulations could provide a helpful tool for their improvement.     

An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections

Ten regional climate models (RCM) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre boundary conditions. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means can be viewed as an expected value about which various uncertainties exist. Uncertainties are measured here by variance in eight sub-European boxes. Four sources of uncertainty can be evaluated with the material provided by the PRUDENCE project. Sampling uncertainty is due to the fact that the model climate is estimated as an average over a finite number of years (30). Model uncertainty is due to the fact that the models use different techniques to discretize the equations and to represent sub-grid effects. Radiative uncertainty is due to the fact that IPCC-SRES A2 is merely one hypothesis. Some RCMs have been run with another scenario of greenhouse gas concentration (IPCC-SRES B2). Boundary uncertainty is due to the fact that the regional models have been run under the constraint of the same global model. Some RCMs have been run with other boundary forcings. The contribution of the different sources varies according to the field, the region and the season, but the role of boundary forcing is generally greater than the role of the RCM, in particular for temperature. Maps of minimum expected 2m temperature and precipitation responses for the IPCC-A2 scenario show that, despite the above mentioned uncertainties, the signal from the PRUDENCE ensemble is significant.