Space–time multiple regression model for grid-based population estimation in urban areas

We can collect, store, and analyze a huge amount of information about human mobility and social interaction activities due to the emergence of information and communication technologies and location-enabled mobile devices under cyber physical system frameworks. The high spatial resolution of population data on a multi-temporal scale is required by transport planners, human geographers, social scientists, and emergency management teams. In this study, we build a space-time multiple regression model to estimate grid-based (500 m × 500 m) spatial resolution at multi-temporal scale (30-min intervals) population data based on the space-time relationship among geospatially enabled person trip (PT) survey data and incorporate both mobile call (MC) and geotagged Twitter (GT) data. Since using geospatially enabled PT survey data as dependent variables enables us to acquire actual population amounts, which strongly depend on MCs and social interaction activities. Although many grids have a strong correlation between PT and MC/GT, some show fewer correlation results, especially where the grids have factories, schools, and workshops in which fewer MCs are found but a large population is presented. Although GT data are sparser than MCs, people from amusement and tourist areas can be detected by GT data. The space-time multiple regression model can also estimate the different amounts of populations based on human travel behavior that changes over space and time. According to accuracy assessments, the night-time estimated results, especially between 00:00 and 06:30, strongly correlate with national census data except in places where the grids have railway and subway stations.     

Timing of remanent magnetization acquisition in red beds: A case study from a syn-folding sedimentary basin

We propose to explain the origin of the double trend in seismicity of the Macas swarm in the Subandean Cordillera of Cutucú (Ecuador) and characterize the corresponding active deformation of that region. For that purpose, seismological and geological data have been used, with the deployment of a temporary seismological array, with geological field observations and image processing. We found that some earthquakes are aligned on a well known NNE–SSW trend corresponding to the orientation of the nodal planes of the reverse focal mechanism of the M_w=7.0 1995 Macas earthquake as for its aftershocks. Nevertheless, many smaller events are aligned on an unexpected NNW–SSE trend inside the Cutucú Cordillera. We interpret these two orientations of the Macas swarm as linked to Subandean basement thrusts inherited from the inversion tectonics of a NNE–SSW trending Triassic–Jurassic rift, which has been uplifted and partly extruded in the Cutucú Cordillera. The present partitioning of this part of the Subandean deformation is controlled by pre-existing NNE–SSW to NNW–SSE Triassic–Jurassic normal faults that have been subsequently compressed–transpressed and reactivated into reverse faults. Major boundary faults of the rift were NNE–SSW oriented and correspond now to some main Subandean thrusts as confirms the focal mechanism of the 1995 main shock located on the eastern border (Morona frontal thrust) and the orientation of its aftershocks. In the Cutucú Cordillera, the double orientation of present swarm can be interpreted as the result of accommodation of deformation along NNW–SSE pre-existing faults inside the inverted rift system, linked to the motion of the Morona frontal NNE–SSW thrust.     

Accelerated continental-scale snowmelt and ecohydrological impacts in the four largest Siberian river basins in response to spring warming

River runoff from the four largest Siberian river basins (the Ob, Yenisei, Lena, and Kolyma) considerably contributes to freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean from the Eurasian continent. However, the effects of variation in snow cover fraction on the ecohydrological variations in these basins are not well understood. In this study, we analysed the spatiotemporal variability of the maximum snow cover fraction (SCF_max) in the four Siberian river basins. We compared the SCF_max from 2000 to 2016 with data in terms of monthly temperature and precipitation, night-time surface temperatures, the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA), the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), and river runoff. Our results exhibit a decreasing trend in the April SCF_max values since 2000, largely in response to warming air temperatures in April. We identified snowmelt water as the dominant control on the observed increase in the runoff contribution in May across all four Siberian river basins. In addition, we detected that the interannual river runoff was predominantly controlled by interannual variations in the TWSA. The NDVI in June was strongly controlled by the timing of the snowmelt along with the surface air temperature and TWSA in June. The rate of increase in the freshwater flux from the four Siberian rivers decreased from 2000 to 2016, exhibiting large interannual variations corresponding to interannual variations in the TWSA. However, we identified a clear increase trend in the freshwater flux of ~4 km³/year when analysing the long-term 39-year historical record (1978–2016). Our results suggest that continued global warming will accelerate the transition towards the earlier timing of snowmelt and spring freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean. Our findings also highlight the effects of earlier snowmelt on ecohydrological changes in the Northern Hemisphere.     

Rapid Identification of Water-Conducting Fractures Using a Trace Methane Gas Measurement

Identification of water-conducting fractures is important for the safety assessment of underground projects in crystalline rocks at geological disposal sites. We applied a portable methane gas analyzer by wavelength-scanned cavity ring-down spectroscopy to detect the water-conducting fractures in the underground tunnel of the Mizunami Underground Research Laboratory, central Japan. The tunnel is excavated in granite with CH₄-rich groundwater. Two approaches were taken to obtain the profile of CH₄ concentration along the gallery walls: (1) “Scan by walking” at the speed of 0.5 m/s and (2) monitoring for 30 s at 0.5 or 1 m intervals. In the Scan by walking approach, the peaks of the CH₄ concentration corresponded well with the occurrence of high water flow rate fractures. Thus, this method is useful for rapid identification of major water-conducting fractures. Monitoring at constant intervals takes more time than the Scan by walking approach; however, this method can largely detect occurrences of fractures with low fluid fluxes.     

Preferred orientation of the trace fossil Entradichnus meniscus in eolian dune strata (Djadokhta Formation) at Tugrikiin Shiree,southern Mongolia and its paleoecological implications

Eolian sand dune deposits of the Upper Cretaceous Djadokhta Formation at Tugrikiin Shiree, southern Mongolia, yield not only dinosaur skeletal remains but also numerous trace fossils produced by invertebrates. This paper describes the trace fossil Entradichnus meniscus, a long unlined and unbranched trail that is filled with meniscate laminae and occurs characteristically in positive epirelief. The trail is straight to gently meandering, parallel to the foreset laminae of the eolian dunes, and exhibits a significant preferred orientation parallel to the depositional dip of the cross‐stratification laminae. In addition, almost all the crescentic internal laminae of the trail show concave down‐dips. These features indicate that the trails were produced beneath the slipface of eolian dunes by the downward burrowing of the trace‐makers. This occurrence mode of E. meniscus of the Mongolian Cretaceous is very similar to that described from the Jurassic eolian dune deposits in North America. Hence, the downward burrowing of the E. meniscus animal might be a common feature in arid eolian dune deposits at least during the Jurassic and Cretaceous, and possibly reflecting a behavioral response to the morphology of large sand dunes under an arid climate.     

Stress-induced crack path in Aji granite under tensile stress

The double-torsion test using Aji granite was carried out to investigate the interaction between stress-induced crack path and mineral grains. Crack velocities were controlled at range 10^–7 m/s to 10^–1 m/s. After the stressed specimens were dyed, we checked the crack path by thin section analysis, using an optical microscope. The stress-induced crack path was divided into two types, transgranular and intergranular cracks, and each path was subdivided with respect to mineral grains. In spite of the extensive range of crack velocities, the ratios between the transgranular and intergranular crack lengths did not change. The crack paths were all jagged, and often showed detour around the grain boundary when faced with obstacles like hard grains or preexisting cracks. That is to say, quartz grain played an important role as an obstacle. Feldspar grain could change the crack path because of its cleavage plane. Biolite grain had a serious effect on the path even if its constitution ratio is very small. Fractal dimensions of the crack paths were calculated by three methods, as indicators of surface roughness. The fractal dimensions were shown in a slight trend with the change of crack velocity. This trend can be explained from the point of limited cracking rate in stress corrosion.     

Frequency–Magnitude Distribution of −3.7 ≤ M W ≤ 1 Mining-Induced Earthquakes Around a Mining Front and b Value Invariance with Post-Blast Time

We investigated frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) of acoustic emissions (AE) occurring near an active mining front in a South African gold mine, using a catalog developed from an AE network, which is capable of detecting AEs down to M _W  ?5. When records of blasts were removed, FMDs of AEs obeyed a Gutenberg?Richter law with similar b values, not depending on post-blasting time from the initial 1-min interval through more than 30 h. This result denies a suggestion in a previous study (Richardson and Jordan Bull Seismol Soc Am, 92:1766–1782, 2002) that new fractures generated by blasting disturb the size distribution of background events, which they interpreted as slip events on existing weak planes. Our AE catalog showed that the GR law with b ～ 1.2 was valid between M _W  ?3.7 and 0 for AEs around the mining front. Further, using the mine’s seismic catalog, which covers a longer time period of the same area, we could extend the validity range of the GR law with the same b value up to M _W 1.     

Characteristic of the vertical seismic waves associated with the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu (Kobe), Japan earthquake estimated from the failure of the Daikai Underground Station

The dynamic behaviour of underground structures built by cut‐and‐cover methods is discussed. A simple model analysis shows that a column supporting the overburden at midspan (central column) can resonate upon incidence of an elastic wave of a specific frequency. The analytical results indicate that not only the size and material properties of the column, but also the static load acting on the column (overburden) is a decisive factor that influences the resonant frequency. Based on the results obtained by the analysis, the mechanism of the failure at the Daikai Underground Station in Kobe caused by the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake is investigated. It is shown that the wave‐induced damage to underground structures can concentrate on the sections with specific overburden, and from the induced damage, it is possible to estimate the frequency characteristics of the associated seismic waves. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A trial for monitoring temporal variation of seismic velocity using an ACROSS system

Abstract The temporal variation of seismic velocity near the Nojima Fault, which ruptured during the 1995 Kobe earthquake (Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake), was detected using an accurately controlled routine-operated seismic source (ACROSS). The source generates elastic waves by a centrifugal force of an eccentric mass rotating around an axis. The mass is driven with an AC servomotor whose angular position is accurately controlled with reference to a very accurate global positioning system (GPS) clock. The error of the mass' position is less than 0.002 radian and does not accumulate. As a result, the source generates sinusoidal waves of very narrow spectral peaks enabling their detection with an excellent signal-to-noise ratio. Although the stability of the rotation is quite excellent, a large daily variation was found, which seems to be caused by changes in atmospheric temperature. The daily variation was 10% in amplitude and 0.1 radian in phase of the signal observed at the 800 m borehole seismometer. A significant variation was found to be due to that of coupling between the rotational source and the foundation made of reinforced concrete in which the source was situated. In order to make a correction on the signal of the 800 m borehole seismometer, the vibration of the foundation was measured and modeled assuming a rigid body movement. The correction successfully reduced the daily variation by approximately 90%, resulting in a variation of 1% in amplitude and 0.01 radian in phase. The phase variation of 0.01 radian corresponds to 100 μs and less than 0.1% in velocity over 1000 m between the source and the receiver.