A Severance Tax Revenue Forecast Model for Louisiana

Most states levy severance taxes on the value of natural resources when they are severed or extracted from the ground or subsurface. In Louisiana, severance tax on oil and gas production contributes to the majority of mineral revenue in the state, and over the last decade, has ranged between $400 million and $1.1 billion, or between 5 and 9% of annual state revenue. The purpose of this article is to develop a forecast model for severance tax revenue to better understand the severance tax regime and to assist in state budgeting and planning purposes. We couple an oil and gas production model with empirical relationships describing historical severance tax receipts to perform the forecast. We demonstrate that oil production correlations are robust, but that in recent years, unconventional gas production from the Haynesville shale has led to a significant departure from historic trends. We estimate that cumulative oil and gas severance tax revenues during 2011–2015 will range from $1.0 to $2.1 billion for oil and $1.3–$1.9 billion for gas. Louisiana is transforming into a gas-producing state, and more attention needs to be paid to tax design and the impact of exemptions on future severance revenue receipts.     

Holocene aeolian dynamics in the European sand‐belt as indicated by geochronological data

Aeolian sands are widespread in the European sand‐belt. While there is a consensus about the timing of increased aeolian activity and, in contrast, of surface stabilization during the Lateglacial, knowledge about Holocene aeolian dynamics is still very sparse. It is generally assumed that aeolian processes have been closely connected to human activities since at least the Neolithic period. A compilation of 189 luminescence dates from aeolian sands of Holocene age and 301 ¹⁴C‐dates from palaeo‐surfaces, comprising palaeosols, buried peats and archaeological features from the whole sand‐belt, is plotted as histograms and kernel density plots and divided into sub‐phases by cluster analysis. This is also done separately for the dates from the areas west and east of the river Elbe. Our results show that aeolian activity did not cease with the end of the Younger Dryas but continued in the whole European sand‐belt until the Mid‐Atlantic (c. 6500 a BP), presenting evidence of vegetation‐free areas at least at the local scale. During the subsequent time period evidence of aeolian sedimentation is sparse, and surface stabilization is indicated by a cluster of palaeo‐surfaces ascribed to the early Subboreal (c. 5000 cal. a BP). The agglomeration of luminescence ages around 4000 years is probably connected with intensified land use during the Late Neolithic. Younger phases of aeolian sedimentation are indicated by clusters of luminescence ages around 1800 years, a group of luminescence ages from the Netherlands and NW Germany around 900 years, and a group of ages around 680 years in Germany. Among the dates from palaeo‐surfaces, clusters were identified around 2700, 1300 and 900 cal. a BP as well as around 690 cal. a BP in the western part and 610 cal. a BP in the eastern part of the sand‐belt. The clusters within the luminescence ages and the ¹⁴C‐dates coincide with phases where increased human impact can be deduced from archaeological and historical sources as well as from environmental history.     

Modelling of a medium-term dynamics in a shallow tidal sea, based on combined physical and neural network methods

The paper presents an approach towards a medium-term (decades) modelling of water levels and currents in a shallow tidal sea by means of combined hydrodynamic and neural network models. The two-dimensional version of the hydrodynamic model Delft3D, forced with realistic water level and wind fields, is used to produce a two-year-database of water levels and currents in the study area. The linear principal component analysis (PCA) of the results is performed to reveal dominating spatial patterns in the analyzed dataset and to significantly reduce the dimensionality of the data. It is shown that only a few principal components (PCs) are necessary to reconstruct the data with high accuracy (over 95% of the original variance). Feed-forward neural networks are set up and trained to effectively simulate the leading PCs based on water level and wind speed and direction time series in a single, arbitrarily chosen point in the study area. Assuming that the spatial modes resulting from the PCA are ‘universally’ applicable to the data from time periods not modelled with Delft3D, the trained neural networks can be used to very effectively and reliably simulate temporal and spatial variability of water levels and currents in the study area. The approach is shown to be able to accurately reproduce statistical distribution of water levels and currents in various locations inside the study area and thus can be viewed as a reliable complementary tool e.g., for computationally expensive hydrodynamic modelling. Finally, a detailed analysis of the leading PCs is performed to estimate the role of tidal forcing and wind (including its seasonal and annual variability) in shaping the water level and current climate in the study area.     

Chemical and physical properties of Žďár nad Sázavou L chondrite and porosity differentiation using computed tomography

A very bright and long bolide was observed over the eastern part of the Czech Republic during late local evening on December 9, 2014. This bolide was recorded by professional instruments in the Czech part of the European Fireball Network. Three meteorites weighing in total 87 g were found in the predicted area and were named ??ár nad Sázavou. The complete material composition of the meteorite was obtained from one cut‐off piece using petrography, mineralogy, and scanning electron microscopy (together with X‐ray energy dispersive spectroscopy and wavelength dispersive spectroscopy). X‐ray computed tomography (CT) was applied on all pieces for the determination of their grain and bulk density, digitization of shape, and examination of the structural homogeneity. CT has proved its important role for nondestructive exploration of brecciated meteorites formed by distinct lithologies or petrological types. In this article, we discuss its limits in terms of structural and material resolution based on the correlation of state‐of‐the‐art CT data and SEM images. Furthermore, we introduce a new way of air cavity quantification, which distinguishes the natural porosity of meteorite and cracks related to erosion processes. This helps to discuss the presence of weathering products based on comparison of the meteorite pieces found at different times after impact.     

The role of shallow convection in the water and energy cycles of the atmosphere

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM4) is used to study the role of shallow convection in the hydrologic and energy cycles of the atmosphere. Sensitivity tests with AGCM4 show a marked effect of the parameterization of shallow convection in the model. In particular, including the parameterization of shallow convection produces considerably enhanced vertical mixing and decreased stratiform cloud amounts in the lower subtropical atmosphere over the oceans. The differences in simulated stratiform cloud amounts are associated with a change in the globally averaged outgoing shortwave radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere of about 11 W m⁻². Additionally, precipitation rates are considerably reduced for stratiform clouds and enhanced for convective clouds in the subtropics, if the parameterization of shallow convection is included in the model. Additional tests show that the simulated responses in cloud amounts and precipitation to the treatment of shallow convection are robust. Additional simulations with modified closures for deep convection and other changes to the treatment of convection in the model still lead to similar responses of the model results.     

The variation of cosmogenic Kr and Xe in a core from Estherville mesosiderite: direct evidence that the lunar131Xe anomaly is a depth effect

Kr and Xe were measured by a stepwise heating technique in three samples of a drill core in the “Minnesota” fragment of the Estherville mesosiderite. The cosmogenic⁷⁸Kr/⁸³Kr decreased from the “top” sample to the “bottom” sample(“top” = 0.163 ± 0.005, “bottom” = 0.151 ± 0.005) while the cosmogenic¹³¹Xe/¹²⁶Xe ratio increased(“top” = 5.58 ± 0.35, “bottom” = 6.92 ± 0.17). Cosmic-ray track studies have shown that the “top” sample was indeed closer to the preatmospheric surface than the “bottom” sample by ～ 10 cm. This is the first direct evidence, in a sample of known geometry, that the cosmogenic¹³¹Xe/¹²⁶Xe ratio increases as a function of depth, and as such, confirms the hypothesis that the lunar¹³¹Xe anomaly is a bona fide depth effect due to resonance neutron capture in¹³⁰Ba.     

Dynamic properties of planar,coupled shear walls

The paper is a study of the natural frequencies and mode shapes of planar, coupled shear walls, a common lateral resistive element in building construction. The equations of motion are derived for the general case, and the eigenvalue problem associated with free vibrations of equal, constant shear walls is solved, both with and without the inclusion of the inertia of vertical motion. Explicit solutions are presented for the characteristic equation and the mode shapes and the results are illustrated with figures, including an example calculation based on the shear walls of the Mt. McKinley Building, damaged by the Alaskan earthquake of 1964. The results affirm the necessity of including vertical displacement of the shear walls in the analysis of such systems, and suggest that the inertia of vertical motion also must be considered in the analysis for certain ranges of the parameters.     

Analysis of a giant lightning storm on Saturn

On January 23, 2006, the Cassini/RPWS (Radio and Plasma Wave Science) instrument detected a massive outbreak of SEDs (Saturn Electrostatic Discharges). The following SED storm lasted for about one month and consisted of 71 consecutive episodes. It exceeded all other previous SED observations by Cassini as well as by the Voyagers with regard to number and rate of detected events. At the same time astronomers at the Earth as well as Cassini/ISS (Imaging Science Subsystem) detected a distinctive bright atmospheric cloud feature at a latitude of 35° South, strongly confirming the current interpretation of SEDs being the radio signatures of lightning flashes in Saturn's atmosphere. In this paper we will analyze the main physical properties of this SED storm and of a single small SED storm from 2005. The giant SED storm of 2006 had maximum burst rates of 1 SED every 2 s, its episodes lasted for 5.5 h on average, and the episode's periodicity of about 10.66 h exactly matched the period of the ISS observed cloud feature. Using the low frequency cutoff of SED episodes we determined an ionospheric electron density around ¹⁰⁴ cm⁻³ for the dawn side of Saturn.     

Processing and preliminary interpretation of noisy high-resolution seismic reflection/refraction data across the active Ostler Fault zone,South Island,New Zealand

In an attempt to understand the structure of active faults as they emerge from bedrock into shallow semi-consolidated and unconsolidated sediments, we have recorded a comprehensive high-resolution seismic reflection/refraction data set across the Ostler Fault zone on the central South Island of New Zealand. This fault zone, which absorbs 1–2 mm/yr of compression associated with oblique convergence of the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates, consists of a series of surface-rupturing N–S trending, west-dipping reverse faults that offset a thick sequence of Quaternary glacial outwash and late Neogene fluvio-lacustrine sediments of the Mackenzie Basin. Our study focuses on a region of the basin where two non-overlapping fault segments are separated by a transfer zone. Deformation in this area is accommodated by offsets on multiple small faults and by folding in their hanging walls. The seismic data with source and receiver spacing of 6 and 3 m and nominal CMP fold of 60 was acquired along twelve 1.2 km long lines orthogonal to fault strike and an additional 1.6 km long tie-line parallel to fault strike. The combination of active deformation and shallow glacial outwash sediments results in particularly complicated seismic data, such that application of relatively standard processing schemes yields only poor quality images. We have designed a pre- and post-stack reflection/refraction processing scheme that focuses on minimising random and source-generated noise, determining appropriate static corrections and resolving contrasting reflection dips. Application of this processing scheme to the Ostler Fault data provides critical information on fault geometry and offset and on sedimentary structures from the surface to ～ 800 m depth. Our preliminary interpretation of one of the lines includes complex deformation structures with folding and multiple subsidiary fault splays on either side of a ～ 50° west-dipping primary fault plane.     

Quartz Cement in Middle Jurassic Reservoir Sandstones in North Sea. A Review. Part Ⅰ: Occurrence and Character

Quartz cementation is a very important diagenetic event and main porosity-occluding factor in the reservoir sandstones in middle Jurassic i n North Sea. Petrological studies indicate the quartz cementation is limited in shallower burial depth and increases significantly at depth around 3.5 - 4 km. T he amount of quartz cement increases with burial depth from an average of approx imately 4%-5 vol% at 2.5 km to 17%-20 vol% at 4 km. Highest abundances of quartz cement exceeds 28% which has been found in the Ness Formation. Variations in qu artz cementation between different sandstone facies is minimal for any one forma tion, with exception of the generally lower quantities present in the heterolith ic sandstone. Homogenisation temperatures of fluid inclusion in quartz overgrowt h from the North Sea reservoirs indicate that few quartz cement occur below the temperature 70 ℃～80 ℃, the onset of large volume quartz cement starts at the temperatures higher than 90 ℃ which suggests the quartz cementation is temperat ure - dependent during progressing diagenesis of sandstones.