Long-term Trends in Vegetation Dynamics and Forest Fires in Brandenburg (Germany) Under a Changing Climate

The human influence on environmental processes has been described for many types of land use. One of the oldest tools to modify people’s environment is fire, which has dominated fire regimes in many regions over long time scales. This paper focuses on a German case study region, where 80–90% of the fires are human-caused. The objectives of this study are the application of the Regional Fire Model (Reg-FIRM), a process-based fire model that is incorporated into the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, to temperate forests under historic climate conditions and to explore ranges of potential impacts of future climate change on fire and vegetation dynamics. Simulation experiments are designed to simulate historic fire pattern and to explore influences of vegetation on fire. Simulated fire pattern reproduced the observed average fire conditions reasonably well although with a smaller amplitude. This leads to underestimation of extreme fire years as well as an overestimation of low fire years. Vegetation composition influenced fire spread conditions in the temperate forest and had little impact on fire ignition potentials, except when only broad-leaved deciduous forests were assumed. Fire is likely to change under climate change conditions. Simulated experiments were conducted to explore the effects of climate change and rising CO₂ concentration given the potential natural vegetation as the best-case for Brandenburg. Three GCM scenarios predicting different future climatic changes were applied, and resulted in quantitatively different future fire patterns. Depending on future precipitation pattern and the influence of the CO₂ effect on canopy conductance and thus litter moisture, fire was predicted to either decrease or slightly increase in Brandenburg forests, but the burnt area would not exceed current, extreme fire years. Generally, fire changes had no implication for vegetation composition in Brandenburg, but reduced vegetation carbon gain after 2050. In the HadCM3 application, simulated increase in grass cover due to a large burnt area after 2075 accelerated fire spread conditions, thus still increasing the burnt area, while climatic fire danger and number of fires already began to decline. These interactions underline the importance to consider the full range of fire processes and interactions with vegetation dynamics in a simulation model.     

Twentieth Century Climate in the New York Hudson Highlands and the Potential Impacts on Eco-Hydrological Processes

During the 20th century the northeastern U.S.A. has undergone an annual temperature increase of 1 °C, the combined effect of winter warming and an increase in daily summer minimum temperatures. A significant cooling of spring through autumn in maximum air temperatures is also evident since 1950. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to document these climate trends and variability over the last century. A secondary objective is to provide a preliminary analysis of how these changes may have impacted hydrologic and ecosystem processes. Specifically, with respect to ecosystem processes, we examine how the cooling of daytime maximum temperatures may have impacted plant respiration and biomass accumulation. The study site is the Black Rock Forest, an experimental forest located in Hudson Highlands of New York that has been maintained as a conservation area over the last 100 years. For the region centered about the forest, there exists a climate/weather record and an extensively maintained biomass record that extends continuously from the early part of the 20th century through present. With such an extensive physical and biological record to draw from, this forest provides a microcosm for studying how changes in 20th century local and regional climate may have impacted ecosystem processes such as species adaptation, biomass growth, and 20th century carbon sequestration. In a subsequent paper we will more extensively explore the relationship between this record of changing climate and eco-hydrological processes.     

Particulate matter fluxes in the southern and central Kara Sea compared to sediments: Bulk fluxes, amino acids, stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, sterols and fatty acids

The Kara Sea is one of the arctic marginal seas strongly influenced by fresh water and river suspension. The highly seasonal discharge by the two major rivers Yenisei and Ob induces seasonal changes in hydrography, sea surface temperature, ice cover, primary production and sedimentation. In order to obtain a seasonal pattern of sedimentation in the Kara Sea, sediment traps were deployed near the river mouth of the Yenisei (Yen) as well as in the central Kara Sea (Kara) within the framework of the German–Russian project “Siberian River run-off; SIRRO”. Two and a half years of time-series flux data were obtained between September 2000 and April 2003 and were analyzed for bulk components, amino acids, stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes as well as sterols and fatty acids.Sediment trap data show that much of the annual deposition occurred under ice cover, possibly enhanced by zooplanktonic activity and sediment resuspension. An early bloom of ice-associated algae in April/May occurred in the polynya area and may have been very important to sustain the life cycles of higher organisms after the light limitation of the winter months due to no/low insolation and ice cover. The strong river input dominated the months June–August in the southern part of the Kara Sea. The central Kara Sea had a much shorter productive period starting in August and was less affected by the river plumes. Despite different time-scales of sampling and trapping biases, total annual fluxes from traps were in the same order of magnitude as accumulation rates in surface sediments. Terrestrial organic carbon accumulation decreased from 10.7 to 0.3 g C m⁻² a⁻¹ from the riverine source to the central Kara Sea. Parallel to this, preservation of marine organic matter decreased from 10% to 2% of primary productivity which was probably related to decreasing rates of sedimentation.     

Paleogeography of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) and the Swiss Molasse Basin (SMB) from Eocene to Pliocene

Twenty paleogeographic maps are presented for Middle Eocene (Lutetian) to Late Pliocene times according to the stratigraphical data given in the companion paper by Berger et al. this volume. Following a first lacustrine-continental sedimentation during the Middle Eocene, two and locally three Rupelian transgressive events were identified with the first corresponding with the Early Rupelian Middle Pechelbronn beds and the second and third with the Late Rupelian Serie Grise (Fischschiefer and equivalents). During the Early Rupelian (Middle Pechelbronn beds), a connection between North Sea and URG is clearly demonstrated, but a general connection between North Sea, URG and Paratethys, via the Alpine sea, is proposed, but not proved, during the late Rupelian. Whereas in the southern URG, a major hiatus spans Early Aquitanian to Pliocene times, Early and Middle Miocene marine, brackish and freshwater facies occur in the northern URG and in the Molasse Basin (OMM, OSM); however, no marine connections between these basins could be demonstrated during this time. After the deposition of the molasse series, a very complex drainage pattern developed during the Late Miocene and Pliocene, with a clear connection to the Bresse Graben during the Piacenzian (Sundgau gravels). During the Late Miocene, Pliocene and Quaternary sedimentation persisted in the northern URG with hardly any interruptions. The present drainage pattern of the Rhine river (from Alpine area to the lower Rhine Embayment) was not established before the Early Pleistocene.     

Cosmic-ray muon-induced 129I in tellurium ores

1.7 × 10⁷yr-lived ¹²⁹I has been positively detected in two natural tellurium ores by activation analysis with the help of low-level sum-coincidence gamma-ray spectrometry. The observed ¹²⁹I concentrations can be explained as induced by muon reactions on ¹³⁰Te. The detection of ¹²⁹I provides for the first time conclusive evidence for the occurrence of natural long-lived muon-induced nuclides. Most of the ¹²⁹Xe and ¹³¹Xe anomalies observed in natural tellurides are best interpreted in terms of reactions induced by muons and their secondary neutrons.     

The Xe-Xe spectrum technique,a new dating method

A new method to date uranium-bearing minerals exclusively by means of a mass spectrometric determination of Xe and/or Kr isotopic ratios has been developed and experimentally tested. It is based on the compositional differences between Xe produced by spontaneous fission of²³⁸U in nature and Xe from²³⁵U fission induced by thermal neutrons in a nuclear reactor. Xe is extracted in 5–10 release fractions at successively higher temperatures. This relates the radiogenic Xe contained in various structural elements of different retention characteristics to the respective U concentrations and allows to account for natural Xe losses, which are quite common. A monazite monitor mineral of known age is included in each irradiation and its Xe isotopes are measured in the same way.The samples analyzed include uranium oxides, REE phosphates, tantalum niobates, zircon and others.The results and comparisons with reported ages obtained by other means demonstrate the applicability of the new dating method for minerals with U contents up to a few percent. In age spectra the low-temperature release fractions of some samples indicate radiogenic Xe losses, while at high temperatures age plateaux can be obtained.     

The Val Gabbro Plutonic Suite: A Sub-volcanic Intrusion Emplaced at the End of Flood Basalt Volcanism on the Kerguelen Archipelago

The age, petrology, major and trace element geochemistry, andSr–Nd–Hf–Pb isotopic geochemistry of basicand felsic rocks from the Val gabbro plutonic suite on the KerguelenArchipelago, Southern Indian Ocean, are used to constrain thetemporal and compositional relationships between sub-volcanicintrusions and flood basalt volcanism during the formation ofa major oceanic island. The 4 km² Val gabbro plutonic suitewas emplaced at 24·25 ± 0·15 Ma (U–Pbzircon) into 25 Ma volcanic rocks of the Southeast Province,locally producing a large zone of overlying basaltic breccia.Cumulate basic–ultrabasic rocks are the dominant lithologyin the intrusion, with horizontally layered peridotites at thebase of the exposed part of the intrusion, overlain by verticallylayered, coarse-grained plagioclase-bearing peridotites, melagabbrosand equigranular gabbros. The intrusion was formed by repeatedinjections of relatively crystal-rich and crystal-poor magmasinto an open-system magma reservoir. Strong geochemical andisotopic similarities between the fine-grained marginal microgabbrosand cross-cutting felsic rocks and the hosting mildly alkalicbasalts and trachytes of the Southeast Province indicate thatthey were derived from similar alkalic basaltic parental magmas,which were dominated by the enriched component of the Kerguelenmantle plume source. At 25 Ma, the change from tholeiitic–transitionalto mildly alkalic basalts marks the terminal stage of floodbasalt volcanism on the Kerguelen Archipelago. This compositionalchange was associated with deeper melting within the Kerguelenplume source, lower extents of melting, a decrease in magmasupply, and the emplacement of high-level intrusions such asthe Val gabbro plutonic suite. KEY WORDS: Kerguelen Archipelago; Val gabbro plutonic suite; oceanic island; gabbros; sub-volcanic intrusion; alkalinity; Sr–Nd–Hf–Pb isotopes     

Decomposing the cascade of uncertainty in risk assessments for urban flooding reflecting critical decision-making issues

We analyze the response of Kenyan maize yields to near-term climate change and explore potential mitigation options. We model county level yields as a function of rainfall and temperature during a period of increased regional warming and drying (1989–2008). We then do a counter factual analysis by comparing existing maize yields from 2000 to 2008 to what yields might have been if observed warming and drying trends had not occurred. We also examine maize yields based on projected 2026–2040 climate trends. Without the observed warming and drying trends, Eastern Kenya would have had an 8% increase in maize yields, which in turn would have led to a net production increase of 500,000 metric tons. In Western Kenya, the magnitude of change is higher but the relative changes in predicted values are smaller. If warming and drying trends continue, we expect future maize yields to decline by 11% in Eastern Kenya (vs. 7% in Western Kenya). We also examine whether these future losses might be offset through agricultural development. For that analysis, we use a household panel dataset (2000, 2005) with measurements of individual farm plot yields, inputs, and outputs. We find that under a scenario of aggressive adoption of hybrid seeds and fertilizer usage coupled with warming and drying trends, yields in Western Kenya might increase by 6% while those in Eastern Kenya could increase by 14%. This increase in yields might be larger if there is a corresponding increase in usage of drought-tolerant hybrids. However, wide prediction intervals across models highlight the uncertainty in these outcomes and scenarios.     

Conservation Opportunity and Risk Mapping for Carnivores Using Landowner Survey Data from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Large landscape planning for wildlife corridors often requires inclusion of private lands and willing landowners to establish successful pathways to and from protected core habitats. Using mail survey data, we spatially assessed carnivore occurrences, perceptions of carnivores, and landowner preferences toward conservation planning tools from three communities to quantify conservation opportunity and risk related to carnivore movement on the landscape. The mapping of social data illustrates the importance of understanding individuals for conservation planning. The approach has the potential to identify areas that pose risks or present opportunities for the implementation of on-the-ground conservation actions to facilitate long-term wildlife movement across private lands.     

A hillslope hydrology approach for catchment‐scale slope stability analysis

Regional analysis of slope stability is often constrained by availability of data. Model requirements for input data cannot be met at the desired spatial resolution because data are either site‐speci?c or non‐existent. Faced with these dif?culties it has often been the practice to assume that certain parameters are uniform throughout the area of interest. An alternative approach proposed here allows a more detailed discrimination of slope stability conditions. Based on the principles of hillslope hydrology, hydrologic information can be generated at suf?cient resolution to allow higher resolution slope stability analysis. Measurements from an instrumented network in a small area have been used to establish index‐based models for topographic and climate‐related controls of piezometric response. The ability to relate groundwater levels to rainfall and topographic parameters provides a means of up‐scaling to larger catchments and ultimately the opportunity to generate a catchment‐wide prediction of the distribution, magnitude and frequency of rainstorm‐generated groundwater levels. The example provided in this study uses the topography index of TOPMODEL in GIS to predict the spatial patterns of groundwater elevation for seasonal soil moisture conditions and given rainfall inputs. This allows modelling of catchment‐wide response of soil water to rainstorms with different return periods (representing different magnitudes), and is an essential prerequisite for a probabilistic regional slope stability analysis. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.