The hard solar X-ray burst of 18 September 1963

A hard solar X-ray burst was observed by J-P. Legrand on 18 September 1963, 13:56 UT, at balloon altitude. It lasted a few minutes; a steep increase was followed by an exponential decay. During its declining phase a weak radio burst was observed on 3 and 10 cm, not on longer wavelengths.Maximum radio intensity occurred two minutes after that of the X-ray burst. The X-ray and radio bursts ended almost simultaneously. Optically a small shortlived (some minutes) flare point occurred simultaneously with the X-ray burst in a magnetically interesting part of the active region of September 1963. The X-burst photons seem to have had an energy of about 0.5 MeV. The burst was therefore of a fairly rare type, since very few other bursts with similar photon energies have been detected up to now.It is suggested that a mass of gas, magnetically confined to a volume of about 5·10²⁵ cm³ in the low corona, containing about 3·10³⁵ electrons was accelerated to energies of about 0.5 MeV. The gas gradually expanded, partly also to higher levels. The gyro-synchrotron radiation, emitted by the plasma became observable after about two minutes. At the lower radio frequencies the radiation was absorbed by overlying undisturbed coronal matter. Quantitative computations justify this model. A detailed summary of the events, and some numerical data are given in the concluding Section 8 and in Table V.     

Invariant manifolds, phase correlations of chaotic orbits and the spiral structure of galaxies

In the presence of a strong   m = 2  component in a rotating galaxy, the phase-space structure near corotation is shaped to a large extent by the invariant manifolds of the short-period family of unstable periodic orbits terminating at L ₁ or L ₂. The main effect of these manifolds is to create robust phase correlations among a number of chaotic orbits large enough to support a spiral density wave outside corotation. The phenomenon is described theoretically by soliton-like solutions of a Sine–Gordon equation. Numerical examples are given in an N -body simulation of a barred spiral galaxy. In these examples, we demonstrate how the projection of unstable manifolds in configuration space reproduces essentially the entire observed bar–spiral pattern.     

Geochronology of anthropogenic pollutants in riparian wetland sediments of the Lippe River (Germany)

Anthropogenic pollutants were determined in a dated sediment core, collected from a riparian wetland of the Lippe River (Ruhr district, Germany). The historical trend in heavy metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, organochlorines, polychlorinated biphenyls and linear alkylbenzenes as well as more recent contaminants such as industrial additives, organotins, synthetic musks, methyltriclosan and some other compounds were determined for the time period between 1930 and 1986. Emission sources, information on technical production and usage, as well as on the individual pollution pathways, with appropriate environmental stability, were considered in the interpretation of the sediment contamination over the past 50 years.Contaminants were analysed and interpreted according to two different criteria: (a) the origin of the main contaminants as related to mining and industrial activities as well as municipal sewage and agricultural effluents and (b) the pollution history. Due to a significant appearance of formerly missing contaminants in sediments deposited since 1970, we suggest classifying contaminants as either common (predating 1970) or modern (postdating 1970).In summary, the study provided a comprehensive reconstruction of the pollution history of the Lippe River system.     

The problem of rock assimilation by Somma-Vesuvius magma

Mineralogical and chemical compositions of ejected carbonate inclusions of Vesuvian gaseous phase are compared with those of carbonate sediments of the Somma-Vesuvius area. The basement of Vesuvius mainly consists of Mesozoic limestones. Most of these are characterized by extremely low insoluble residues. In this area thick dolomite beds occur in the Triassic system only. A calcareous layer of approximately 100 to 150 meters thickness characterized by high Sr contents (0.19% Sr in the average) is to be found within the Triassic dolostones. Several carbonate ejecta also show high Sr contents (0.1% Sr) but chemical composition of some of these ejecta differs somewhat from that of the Triassic layer high in Sr. Contact with the volcanic volatile phase and melt has produced some alterations in the composition of many ejecta. Magnesian calcites are abundant and periclase, brucite, tremolite, phlogopite and magnesite were found in the ejecta examined. Silicon, manganese, iron, zinc and, to a smaller extent, potassium and copper have been most probably transported from the volcanic gas phase into ejected carbonate inclusions. Owing to metasomatic actions of the volcanic volatile components, rearrangement and alteration of Ca and Mg contents occurred in the carbonate minerals of several ejecta. Under the influence of volcanic pressure and temperature, magnesium content originally in dolomite might be transformed into the calcite structure. \(\frac{{{\text{MgO}}}}{{{\text{CaO + MgO}}}}\) molar ratios of several carbonate ejecta do not correspond with those found in sedimentary limestones and dolostones. It cannot be proved whether the Mg of the mixed calcite-dolomite ejecta has been partially introduced from the volatiles or lost from the carbonate phases.     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Monthly prediction of rainfall over India and its homogeneous zones during monsoon season: a supervised principal component regression approach on general circulation model products

A supervised principal component regression (SPCR) technique has been employed on general circulation model (GCM) products for developing a monthly scale deterministic forecast of summer monsoon rainfall (June–July–August–September) for different homogeneous zones and India as a whole. The time series of the monthly observed rainfall as the predictand variable has been used from India Meteorological Department gridded (1°?×?1°) rainfall data. Lead 0 (forecast initialized in the same month) monthly products from GCMs are used as predictors. The sources of these GCMs are International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, National Center for Environmental Prediction, and Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology. The performance of SPCR technique is judged against simple ensemble mean of GCMs (EM) and it is found that over almost all the zones the SPCR model gives better skill than EM in June, August, and September months of monsoon. The SPCR technique is able to capture the year to year observed rainfall variability in terms of sign as well as the magnitude. The independent forecasts of 2007 and 2008 are also analyzed for different monsoon months (Jun–Sep) in homogeneous zones and country. Here, 1982–2006 have been considered as development year or training period. Results of the study suggest that the SPCR model is able to catch the observational rainfall over India as a whole in June, August, and September in 2007 and June, July, and August in 2008.     

Rockfall Hazard Analysis From Discrete Fracture Network Modelling with Finite Persistence Discontinuities

Developing an accurate representation of the rock mass fabric is a key element in rock fall hazard analysis. The orientation, persistence and density of fractures control the volume and shape of unstable blocks or compartments. In this study, the discrete fracture modelling technique and digital photogrammetry were used to accurately depict the fabric. A volume distribution of unstable blocks was derived combining polyhedral modelling and kinematic analyses. For each block size, probabilities of failure and probabilities of propagation were calculated. A complete energy distribution was obtained by considering, for each block size, its occurrence in the rock mass, its probability of falling, its probability to reach a given location, and the resulting distribution of energies at each location. This distribution was then used with an energy–frequency diagram to assess the hazard.