Development of updateable model output statistics (UMOS) system for air temperature over South Korea

In this study, a Updateable Model Output Statistics (UMOS) system has been developed for the forecast of 3-h temperature over South Korea using two significantly different models’ (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) and Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (KWRF)) outputs based on the Canadian UMOS system (Wilson and Vallee, 2002; 2003). The UMOS system is designed to consider the local climatology and the model’s forecasting skills. The 20 most frequently selected potential predictors for each season, station, and forecast projection time from the 67 potential predictors of the Model Output Statistics (MOS) system, were used as potential predictors of the UMOS system. The UMOS equations are developed by a weighted blending of the new and old model data, with weights chosen to emphasize the new model data while including enough old model data in the development to ensure stable equations and a smooth transition to dependency on the new model. The UMOS equations were updated regularly at a predefined time interval to consider the changes of covariance structure between the new model output and observations as the new model data increase. The validation results showed that seasonal mean bias, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients for the total forecast projection times are ?0.379～0.055°C, 1.951～2.078°C, and 0.741～0.965, respectively. Although, the forecasting skills of UMOS system are very consistent without regard to the season and geographic location, the performance is slightly better in autumn and winter than in spring and summer, and better in coastal regions than in inland region. When we take into account the significant differences of the RDAPS and KWRF, the UMOS system can be used as a supplementary forecasting tool of the MOS system for 3-h temperature over South Korea. However, the UMOS system is very sensitive to the selected number and/or types of predictors. Therefore, more work is needed to enable the use of the UMOS system in operation, including tuning of the number and types of potential predictors and automation of the updating processes of the UMOS equations.     

A projection of extreme climate events in the 21st century over east Asia using the community climate system model 3

A series of coupled atmosphere-ocean-land global climate model (GCM) simulations using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3) has been performed for the period 1870–2099 at a T85 horizontal resolution following the GCM experimental design suggested in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). First, a hindcast was performed using the atmospheric concentrations of three greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O) specified annually and globally on the basis of observations for the period 1870–1999. The hindcast results were compared with observations to evaluate the GCM’s reliability in future climate simulations. Second, climate projections for a 100-year period (2000–2099) were made using six scenarios of the atmospheric concentrations of the three greenhouse gases according to the A1FI, A1T, A1B, A2, B1, and B2 emission profiles of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The present CCSM simulations are found to be consistent with IPCC’s AR4 results in the temporal and spatial distributions for both the present-day and future periods. The GCM results were used to examine the changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia and Korea. The extreme temperatures were categorized into warm and cold events: the former includes tropical nights, warm days, and heat waves during summer (June–July–August) and the latter includes frost days, cold days, and cold surges during winter (December–January–February). Focusing on Korea, the results predict more frequent heat waves in response to future emissions: the projected percentage changes between the present day and the late 2090s range from 294% to 583% depending on the emission scenario. The projected global warming is predicted to decrease the frequency of cold extreme events; however, the projected changes in cold surge frequency are not statistically significant. Whereas the number of cold surges in the A1FI emission profile decreases from the present-day value by up to 24%, the decrease in the B1 scenario is less than 1%. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events year-round were examined. Both the frequency and the intensity of these events are predicted to increase in the region around Korea. The present results will be helpful for establishing an adaptation strategy for possible climate change nationwide, especially extreme climate events, associated with global warming.     

Biomarker responses in pelagic and benthic fish over 1 year following the Hebei Spirit oil spill (Taean, Korea)

After the Hebei Spirit oil spill incident (7th December, 2007) in the west coast of Korea, contamination of biliary PAH metabolite and hepatic biomarkers in a pelagic and a benthic fish was monitored for 1 year. Concentrations of 16 PAHs and alkylated PAHs in fish muscle were highest (22.0 ng/g d.w. for 16 PAHs and 284 ng/g d.w. for alkylated PAHs) at 5 days after the spill and then decreased rapidly to background levels at 11 months after the spill. Fish from the oiled site had elevated biliary PAH metabolite concentrations immediately after the spill; these declined steadily in both species, but were still above reference site concentrations 2 months after the spill. Oiled-site fish showed hepatic CYP 1A induction whose trend closely followed those of biliary PAH metabolite concentrations, implying continuous exposure to PAHs. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was not related to oil exposure.     

Effects of the Changjiang river discharge on sea surface warming in the Yellow and East China Seas in summer

This study explores the effects of the Changjiang (also called the Yangtze River) river discharge (CRD) on the density stratifications and associated sea surface temperature (SST) changes using a global ocean general circulation model with regional focus on the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS). It is found that CRD increases the SST in summer through a barrier layer (BL) formation that tends to enhance stratification at the mixed layer base, and thus reduces both vertical mixing and entrainment. This process is effective, particularly in August, after the CRD reaches its maximum in July. The SST difference between the composites of flood and drought years confirms that the surface warming is related to surface freshening by the CRD. This result suggests that the BL induced by the CRD is an important contributor to the surface heat budget in the YECS.     

Assessing the uncertainties of hydrologic model selection in climate change impact studies

The uncertainties associated with atmosphere‐ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs) and hydrologic models are assessed by means of multi‐modelling and using the statistically downscaled outputs from eight GCM simulations and two emission scenarios. The statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing is used to drive four hydrologic models, three lumped and one distributed, of differing complexity: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC‐SMA) model, Conceptual HYdrologic MODel (HYMOD), Thornthwaite‐Mather model (TM) and the Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS). The models are calibrated based on three objective functions to create more plausible models for the study. The hydrologic model simulations are then combined using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method according to the performance of each models in the observed period, and the total variance of the models. The study is conducted over the rainfall‐dominated Tualatin River Basin (TRB) in Oregon, USA. This study shows that the hydrologic model uncertainty is considerably smaller than GCM uncertainty, except during the dry season, suggesting that the hydrologic model selection‐combination is critical when assessing the hydrologic climate change impact. The implementation of the BMA in analysing the ensemble results is found to be useful in integrating the projected runoff estimations from different models, while enabling to assess the model structural uncertainty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficiency of the modal shift and environmental policy on the Korean railroad

The Kyoto Protocol calls for industrialized nations to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 5% from 1990 levels by 2008–2012, so developed countries are presenting various policies to reduce greenhouse gas that is produced in transport fields. One of those polices is a modal shift that changes from road freight to sea, inland waterways and railroad transportation that is eco-friendly. The increase of road freight brings road congestion, accidents, logistic costs, air pollution and greenhouse gases. Railroads are superior to the other modes of transportation in mass transportability, high speed, timeliness, safety and environmental-friendliness, but the railway industry has been pushed behind in competition. Korean railroads were used by passengers and for freight transport popularly until the middle of the 20th century. However, because of the sudden change of logistics environments, having time efficiency being most important, railroads lost logistic competitive power against the transportation by truck. This paper intends to examine the modal shift to railroad transportation, which enjoys high interest as environmentally-friendly logistics, i.e., the modal shift strategy. Efficiency analysis is conducted using DEA and exploratory factors are identified for the modal shift of the companies. This paper also proposes an alternative plan for green logistics and environmentally-friendly logistics, by analyzing the characteristics of the railroad cargo transportation system and the conditions of local railroad cargo transportation.     

The Role of Naturally Occurring River Biofilms on the Degradation Kinetics of Diazinon

River biofilms are dominant riverine biota with diverse microorganisms. They have been found to contribute greatly to river self‐purification for removal of nutrients and organic matter. This study intended to investigate the ability of naturally occurring river biofilms with changing seasons for the removal of the organophosphorus pesticide diazinon. Natural river biofilms from spring showed higher ability to remove diazinon (99.9% removal) than those from winter (77%) with light exposure. In contrast to control sets without biofilms under irradiation, 27% of diazinon removal in spring and 22% in winter may result from microbial activity within biofilms. Removal of diazinon by river biofilms could be attributed mostly to degradation due to low sorption capacity of biofilms. Spring biofilms had higher dissipation rates (0.265 and 0.486 d^?1 for biofilms with different growth periods) than winter ones (0.099 and 0.119 d^?1) according to first order model. Higher ability of diazinon removal by spring biofilms may be explained by their higher bacterial and algal biomass comparing to winter biofilms. Naturally occurring river biofilms played a significant role in degradation of diazinon, particularly for those grown in spring. Their potential for use in the treatment of diazinon‐contaminated water has been demonstrated.     

Expression of superoxide dismutase (SOD) genes from the copper-exposed polychaete, Neanthes succinea

To evaluate the superoxide dismutase (SOD) genes as a potential indicator of environmental stress, we cloned and sequenced the full-length cDNA of a Cu/Zn-SOD and Mn-SOD genes from the marine polychaete, Neanthes succinea. Ns-Cu/Zn- and Mn-SOD expression was measured using quantitative real-time RT-PCR in response to the oxidative stress induced by copper in the form of CuCl2. Ns-Cu/Zn-SOD expression increased in a dose dependent manner but the increase of Mn-SOD expression was evident only at a high concentration of copper. Particularly, Ns-Mn-SOD dramatically increased in the 72 μg/L CuCl2-exposed groups, indicating that both Ns-SOD genes were induced by copper exposure. These results suggest that Ns-Cu/Zn- and Ns-Mn-SOD would play important roles in the detoxification of cellular oxidative stresses in the polychaete, N. succinea. Furthermore, as part of field work, the marine polychaete, N. succineaCu/Zn-SOD mRNA collected from the polluted area was accordingly upregulated in expression but not for NS-Mn-SOD.     

A comparative study of toxicity identification using Daphnia magna and Tigriopus japonicus: implications of establishing effluent discharge limits in Korea

In Korea, the new permission criteria for industrial effluents based on Daphnia magna acute toxicity tests will be gradually implemented starting from 2011. Thus, in this study, toxicity assessment and identification using a marine species (Tigriopus japonicus) and the freshwater species (D. magna) was comparatively investigated. Effluent from an acid mine drainage treatment plant showed acute toxicity toward both organisms due to low pH, which was removed by neutralization of the effluent. Additionally, evaluation of the effluent of an electronics company revealed that Cu was attributable to the observed toxicity, and the effluent was more toxic toward T. japonicus than D. magna. Moreover, effluents from a metal plating factory were acutely toxic toward D. magna (6.50 TU), while they were not toxic against T. japonicus. Toxicity identification revealed that the high level of Cl- (12,841 mg L(-1)) was the cause of toxicity. Thus, the effluents had no effect on the marine species, T. japonicus. These findings suggest that a marine species rather than a freshwater species is more desirable for toxicity assessment of industrial effluent discharged into the saltwater, and thus should be considered in the legislation of toxicity-based discharge limits in Korea.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in a benthic ecosystem in Gwangyang Bay, South Korea

Benthic ecosystem in Gwangyang Bay, a fast developing industrial area with steel production, port container handling, petroleum and other chemical processing in South Korea was studied. The average levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (ΣPCB) in the benthic components were: seawater 2.99 ± 0.13 (ng/L); sediment 294 ± 118 (ng/g TOC); [biota=ng/g lipid] starfish 92; prawn 131 ± 2; mussels 127 ± 22; crab 182 ± 114; clam 187; polychaeta 215; sea cucumber 497 ± 90; squill 603 ± 38; fish 396 ± 159. Levels in the inner bay samples were higher than the outer bay samples suggesting land based pollution. Good correlation (r(2)=0.79; p<0.05) existed between PCB concentration and lipid content indicating partitioning processes in action. PCB signature in the abiotic and biotic components shows enrichment of lower chlorinated congeners emitted by a unique source nearby, viz. steel manufacturing plant.