Hazard rate estimation of a mixture model with censored lifetimes

This paper is intended to compare the hazard rate from the Bayesian approach with the hazard rate from the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) method. The MLE of a parameter is appropriate as long as there are sufficient data. For various reasons, however, sufficient data may not be available, which may make the result of the MLE method unreliable. In order to resolve the problem, it is necessary to rely on judgment about unknown parameters. This is done by adopting the Bayesian approach. The hazard rate of a mixture model can be inferred from a method called Bayesian estimation. For eliciting a prior distribution which can be used in deriving a Bayesian estimate, a computerized-simulation method is introduced. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the potential benefits of the Bayesian approach.     

Korean East Coast wave predictions by means of ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation

To respond to the need for preventing offshore and coastal accidents, damage and flooding, a state-of-the-art coastal wave forecast system for the East Coast of Korea waters is being developed. Given that the quality of the input wind has been identified as the main factor influencing the quality of the wave results, the effectiveness of adjusting the wind fields by means of data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter technique has been explored. In this article the model setup, the data assimilation parameters and the validation of the predictions during stormy periods is described. The validation shows that the model is able to provide predictions of coastal waves fulfilling available benchmarks; especially, the data assimilation analysis and forecast predictions are judged to be of high quality.     

A study on the treatment of antifouling paint waste from shipyard

A study on the treatment of antifouling paint waste from shipyards, including sandblast waste and ship hull washing wastewater, was performed. The sandblast waste could be effectively detoxified by heat treatment, and the efficiency was affected by the temperature of the heating vessel and treatment time. The removal efficiency of total organotin compounds from the sandblast waste was over 99% at 1000 °C and treatment for 1 h. For the treatment of ship hull washing wastewater by the solvent extraction, ship diesel was a good solvent for the tributyltin (TBT) extraction, and the proper amount of solvent was about 10 mL for TBT extraction from 1 L of wastewater. The extraction efficiency of TBT was significantly affected by the agitation intensity. The TBT in the wash wastewater was rapidly extracted within 1 h. The level of the TBT residual in the wastewater extracted for 1 h was 2.8 μg L⁻¹, and this was further decreased to 0.8 after 5 h extraction.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from rural household biomass burning in a typical Chinese village

Biomass energy sources are still popular in the rural areas of developing countries for cooking and space heating. Since the incomplete combustion of agricultural residues in home-made ranges might lead to both outdoor and indoor air pollution and cause potential health threat to the rural population, we monitored the ambient levels of 16 US EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) at a typical rural site. Ambient particulate PAH samples (PM2.5 and PM10) were taken during both cooking and non-cooking periods. Source emission monitoring was also conducted for both improved and tra- ditional cooking stoves used in the area. Ambient PAHs had a significant increase during the cooking periods and varied from 72.1 to 554.4 ng/m3. The highest total PAH levels were found during the supper cooking time, in which five- and six-ring species accounted for a large proportion. The observed PAH levels during cooking periods at this rural site were even higher than those in urban areas. A good correlation was found between the benzo[a]pyrene level and the total PAH concentration (r=0.98), making benzo[a]pyrene a potential molecular marker for PAH pollution in the rural areas, where bio- mass burning is typical. The profiles of the particulate PAHs in both ambient air and source emissions showed a high proportion of high molecular-mass PAHs. In addition, emission factors of 16 PAHs from an improved household stove were found to be significantly lower than those from traditional stoves used in China and in other Asian countries.     

Sulfur hexafluoride as a complementary method for measuring the extent of point-source thermal effluents

The transport and dilution dynamics of power-plant thermal effluent were measured for 10 consecutive days, between 25 June and 4 July 2006, by concurrently mapping the daily distributions of seawater temperature and concentrations of deliberately released sulfur hexafluoride (SF(6)) within the tidal Kwangyang Bay on the southern coast of Korea. Estimates of the daily extent of the thermal plume based on temperature and SF(6) data showed distinct differences. These differences were particularly pronounced on sunny days during which solar radiation significantly heated river or bay waters moving across the tidal flats; in these cases, the estimates based on seawater temperature data were consistently greater than those based on SF(6) data, indicating considerable overestimates of the extent of the thermal plume when temperature data were used. The present results indicate that the concurrent use of seawater temperature and SF(6) data is a powerful method in determining the extent of thermal plumes, particularly for shallow areas in which the effects of solar heating lead to large uncertainties in temperature-based estimates.     

Seabirds in the North Sea Demobilized and Killed by Polyisobutylene (C4H8)n (PIB)

This paper reports on a mass stranding of seabirds in the North Sea in December 1998. Hundreds of birds were washed ashore alive in Zeeland (SW Netherlands), covered in a whitish, sticky substance, and were transported to a rehabilitation centre. About 10 days later, more (dead) casualties washed ashore further to the north on Texel and along the mainland coast, again covered in a glue-like substance. Common guillemots Uria aalge, northern fulmars Fulmarus glacialis and common scoters Melanitta nigra were the most numerous birds affected in this incident. Both strandings were temporarily (10 days) and geographically separated (ca. 120 km apart), but were apparently caused by a single source of pollution. The meteorology at the time was consistent with the course of a single incident. At least 1100 seabirds were affected by this substance, soon identified as polyisobutylene (C₄H₈)_n. PIB is known as a non-toxic, non-aggressive substance. Volunteers cleaning the birds in the rehabilitation centre reported serious discomfort and dizziness and the soft parts of the PIB-affected birds found dead (bill, eye, throat, feet, webs) appeared to dissolve in a few days time. Both effects cannot be attributed to PIB, and are therefore unexplained. Although the dumping of PIB in the marine environment is not explicitly prohibited under MARPOL, the effects on wildlife observed are enough to plead for counter-measures.     

The value of updating ensemble streamflow prediction in reservoir operations

This study proposes a new monthly ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting system that can update the ESP in the middle of a month to reflect the meteorological and hydrological variations during that month. The reservoir operating policies derived from a sampling stochastic dynamic programming model using ESP scenarios updated three times a month were applied to the Geum River basin to measure the value of updated ESP for 21 years with 100 initial storage combinations. The results clearly demonstrate that updating the ESP scenario improves the accuracy of the forecasts and consequently their operational benefit. This study also proves that the accuracy of the ESP scenario, particularly when high flows occur, has a considerable effect on the reservoir operations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-resolution summer rainfall prediction in the JHWC real-time WRF system

The WRF-based real-time forecast system (http://jhwc.snu.ac.kr/weather) of the Joint Center for High-impact Weather and Climate Research (JHWC) has been in operation since November 2006; this system has three nested model domains using GFS (Global Forecast System) data for its initial and boundary conditions. In this study, we evaluate the improvement in daily and hourly weather prediction, particularly the prediction of summer rainfall over the Korean Peninsula, in the JHWC WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model system by 3DVAR (three-Dimensional Variational) data assimilation using the data obtained from KEOP (Korea Enhanced Observation Program). KEOP was conducted during the period June 15 to July 15, 2007, and the data obtained included GTS (Global Telecommunication System) upper-air sounding, AWS (Automatic Weather System), wind profiler, and radar observation data. Rainfall prediction and its characteristics should be verified by using the precipitation observation and the difference field of each experiment. High-resolution (3 km in domain 3) summer rainfall prediction over the Korean peninsula is substantially influenced by improved synoptic-scale prediction in domains 1 (27 km) and 2 (9 km), in particular by data assimilation using the sounding and wind profiler data. The rainfall prediction in domain 3 was further improved by radar and AWS data assimilation in domain 3. The equitable threat score and bias score of the rainfall predicted in domain 3 indicated improvement for the threshold values of 0.1, 1, and 2.5 mm with data assimilation. For cases of occurrence of heavy rainfall (7 days), the equitable threat score and bias score improved considerably at all threshold values as compared to the entire period of KEOP. Radar and AWS data assimilation improved the temporal and spatial distributions of diurnal rainfall over southern Korea, and AWS data assimilation increased the predicted rainfall amount by approximately 0.3 mm 3hr^?1.