Applying Bayesian belief networks to health risk assessment

The health risk of noncarcinogenic substances is usually represented by the hazard quotient (HQ) or target organ-specific hazard index (TOSHI). However, three problems arise from these indicators. Firstly, the HQ overestimates the health risk of noncarcinogenic substances for non-critical organs. Secondly, the TOSHI makes inappropriately the additive assumption for multiple hazardous substances affecting the same organ. Thirdly, uncertainty of the TOSHI undermines the accuracy of risk characterization. To address these issues, this article proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) for health risk assessment (HRA) and the procedure involved is developed using the example of road constructions. According to epidemiological studies and using actual hospital attendance records, the BBN-HRA can specifically identify the probabilistic relationship between an air pollutant and each of its induced disease, which can overcome the overestimation of the HQ for non-critical organs. A fusion technique of conditional probabilities in the BBN-HRA is devised to avoid the unrealistic additive assumption. The use of the BBN-HRA is easy even for those without HRA knowledge. The input of pollution concentrations into the model will bring more concrete information on the morbidity and mortality rates of all the related diseases rather than a single score, which can reduce the uncertainty of the TOSHI.     

Fishers' perceptions as indicators of the performance of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)

How users perceive the performance of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) is fundamental for the social acceptance of these zones. Moreover, their perceptions may be relevant for monitoring the effects of MPAs on extractive activities. This study analyzes artisanal fishers' perceptions of the performance of a north-western Mediterranean coastal MPA, which encompasses two no-take zones (NTZs). Three viewpoints have been considered: the effect on the personal activity of fishers, the effect on the local fishery and the effect on the ecosystem. In order to test the hypothesis that biomass export (spillover) - which had previously been evidenced from the two NTZs - may influence fishers' perceptions of NTZ effects, fishers' perceptions were compared with both declared and observed fishing activity over an one-year period.The results show that negative perceptions of NTZs are either nil or are negligible. Most fishers are aware of the beneficial effects of NTZs on ecosystems and fisheries. However, they remain to be convinced of the beneficial effects of the NTZs on their own activity. For instance, the proximity of a NTZ appears never to be involved in the choice of a fishing spot. This partial lack of correspondence between scientific expectation and fishers' perceptions is discussed in the light of fishing habits in the zone adjacent to NTZs, and takes into account fishing grounds, targeted species and seniority (defined as the number of years the fisher has been fishing within the MPA). All three factors appear to influence fishers' perceptions. For example, having a positive perception about a NTZ and spending more time fishing in the adjacent zone are habits that can be associated with fishers with less seniority. Fishers' perceptions obviously indicate the social acceptance of the MPA and are an essential monitoring tool for MPA managers. However, perceptions cannot be seen as a substitute for scientific monitoring, as both approaches are clearly complementary.     

Nonlinear wave resistance of a two-dimensional pressure patch moving on a free surface

A model problem of the flow under an air-cushion vessel is studied. Two different numerical techniques are used to determine the solution of the free-surface elevation and the wave resistance for a range of Froude number, Reynolds number, value of the pressure applied in the cushion, and depth of the water. The first numerical technique uses a velocity potential that satisfies linearized free-surface boundary conditions, whereas the second employs a finite-volume method to find a solution that satisfies the fully nonlinear free-surface boundary conditions. The results clearly show that for high Froude number and practical values of the cushion pressure, the linear-theory solution is in excellent agreement with the more exact nonlinear prediction. For lower Froude number the solution becomes unsteady, and the disagreement between the two methods is larger.     

Variability of suspended particulate matter in the Bohai Sea from the geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI)

This study assesses the performance of the Geostationary Ocean Imager (GOCI) for mapping of suspended particulate matter in the Bohai Sea, a turbid water region. GOCI imagery for remote sensing reflectance and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) is analysed in detail for two days in June 2011 (8 images per day). Both instantaneous and daily composite maps are considered and a comparison is made with corresponding reflectance and TSS products from MODIS-AQUA. Results show TSS distributions corresponding to previous studies of the region. The advantage of the higher acquisition frequency (8 images/day instead of 1) offered by GOCI is clearly demonstrated in the daily composite which is more complete during this period of scattered but moving clouds. Consideration of temporal variation over the day indicates low natural variability but some artificial variability from processing errors ?? this analysis provides a first indication of how the higher frequency of data from geostationary ocean colour could lead to improved data quality control via temporal coherency outlier detection. While there is room for improvement on the GOCI calibration, atmospheric correction and retrieval algorithms, the current study suggests that the GOCI data can already be used now to study qualitatively sediment dynamics except in the extremely turbid waters which are masked out of the current dataset. In a wider context, it is considered that the technical challenges of geostationary ocean colour have been met by the GOCI concept, and, notwithstanding potential improvements on the concept and data processing methods, it is recommended that this mission serve as a model for future geostationary ocean colour sensors over Europe/Africa and the Americas.     

The Proterozoic evolution of northern Siberian Craton margin: a comparison of U–Pb–Hf signatures from sedimentary units of the Taimyr orogenic belt and the Siberian platform

Identifying the cratonic affinity of Neoproterozoic crust that surrounds the northern margin of the Siberian Craton (SC) is critical for determining its tectonic evolution and placing the Craton in Neoproterozoic supercontinental reconstructions. Integration of new U–Pb–Hf detrital zircon data with regional geological constraints indicates that distinct Neoproterozoic arc-related magmatic belts can be identified within the Taimyr orogen. Sedimentary rocks derived from 970 to 800 Ma arc-related suites reveal abundant Archean and Paleoproterozoic detritus, characteristic of the SC. The 720–600 Ma arc-related zircon population from the younger Cambrian sedimentary rocks is also complemented by an exotic juvenile Mesoproterozoic zircon population and erosional products of older arc-related suites. Nonetheless, numerous evidences imply that both arcs broadly reworked Siberian basement components. We suggest that the early Neoproterozoic (ca. 970–800 Ma) arc system of the Taimyr orogen evolved on the active margin of the SC and probably extended along the periphery of Rodinia into Valhalla orogen of NE Laurentia. We also suggest the late Neoproterozoic (750–550 Ma) arc system could have been part of the Timanian orogen, which linked Siberia and Baltica at the Precambrian/Phanerozoic transition.     

MTBE, TBA, and TAME Attenuation in Diverse Hyporheic Zones

Groundwater contamination by fuel-related compounds such as the fuel oxygenates methyl tert -butyl ether (MTBE), tert -butyl alcohol (TBA), and tert -amyl methyl ether (TAME) presents a significant issue to managers and consumers of groundwater and surface water that receives groundwater discharge. Four sites were investigated on Long Island, New York, characterized by groundwater contaminated with gasoline and fuel oxygenates that ultimately discharge to fresh, brackish, or saline surface water. For each site, contaminated groundwater discharge zones were delineated using pore water geochemistry data from 15 feet (4.5 m) beneath the bottom of the surface water body in the hyporheic zone and seepage-meter tests were conducted to measure discharge rates. These data when combined indicate that MTBE, TBA, and TAME concentrations in groundwater discharge in a 5-foot (1.5-m) thick section of the hyporheic zone were attenuated between 34% and 95%, in contrast to immeasurable attenuation in the shallow aquifer during contaminant transport between 0.1 and 1.5 miles (0.1 to 2.4 km). The attenuation observed in the hyporheic zone occurred primarily by physical processes such as mixing of groundwater and surface water. Biodegradation also occurred as confirmed in laboratory microcosms by the mineralization of U- ¹⁴C-MTBE and U-¹⁴C-TBA to ¹⁴CO₂ and the novel biodegradation of U- ¹⁴C-TAME to ¹⁴CO₂ under oxic and anoxic conditions. The implication of fuel oxygenate attenuation observed in diverse hyporheic zones suggests an assessment of the hyporheic zone attenuation potential (HZAP) merits inclusion as part of site assessment strategies associated with monitored or engineered attenuation.     

The toxicological interaction between ocean acidity and metals in coastal meiobenthic copepods

Increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are causing greater dissolution of CO₂ into seawater, and are ultimately responsible for today’s ongoing ocean acidification. We manipulated seawater acidity by addition of HCl and by increasing CO₂ concentration and observed that two coastal harpacticoid copepods, Amphiascoides atopus and Schizopera knabeni were both more sensitive to increased acidity when generated by CO₂. The present study indicates that copepods living in environments more prone to hypercapnia, such as mudflats where S. knabeni lives, may be less sensitive to future acidification. Ocean acidification is also expected to alter the toxicity of waterborne metals by influencing their speciation in seawater. CO₂ enrichment did not affect the free-ion concentration of Cd but did increase the free-ion concentration of Cu. Antagonistic toxicities were observed between CO₂ with Cd, Cu and Cu free-ion in A. atopus. This interaction could be due to a competition for H⁺ and metals for binding sites.     

快速演变的三板块边界上的一次大地震破裂

2007年4月1日,一次大海啸地震(MW8.1)使得所罗门群岛俯冲带在一个三联点处破裂。在这个三联点上,澳大利亚板块、所罗门海-伍德拉克盆地板块在不同滑动方向上同时向太平洋板块俯冲。大地震过程中,相关的滑动方向突变使得太平洋板块上部收敛滞弹性变形,这就产生了Simbo俯冲断层之上弧前的局部隆起,潜在地放大了局地海啸振幅。地震周期过程中的弹性形变似乎主要通过上冲的太平洋弧前来调节。这次地震显示了极其年轻的俯冲大洋岩石圈的孕震潜力和横贯坚实地质边界的破裂能力,也显示了引起隆起和海啸的复杂同震滑动的后果。     

Improved 2-D attenuation analysis for Northern Italy using a merged dataset from selected regional seismic networks

A merged, high-quality waveform dataset from different seismic networks has been used to improve our understanding of lateral seismic attenuation for Northern Italy. In a previous study on the same region, Morasca et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:1936–1946, 2008) were able to resolve only a small area due to limited data coverage. For this reason, the interpretation of the attenuation anomalies was difficult given the complexity of the region and the poor resolution of the available data. In order to better understand the lateral changes in the crustal structure and thickness of this region, we selected 770 earthquakes recorded by 54 stations for a total of almost 16,000 waveforms derived from seismic networks operating totally or partially in Northern Italy. Direct S-wave and coda attenuation images were obtained using an amplitude ratio technique that eliminates source terms from the formulation. Both direct and early-coda amplitudes are used as input for the inversions, and the results are compared. Results were obtained for various frequency bands ranging between 0.3 and 25.0 Hz and in all cases show significant improvement with respect to the previous study since the resolved area has been extended and more crossing paths have been used to image smaller scale anomalies. Quality-factor estimates are consistent with the regional tectonic structure exhibiting a general trend of low attenuation under the Po Plain basin and higher values for the Western Alps and Northern Apennines. The interpretation of the results for the Eastern Alps is not simple, possibly because our resolution for this area is still not adequate to resolve small-scale structures.