Optically stimulated luminescence age controls on late Pleistocene and Holocene coastal lithosomes, North Carolina, USA

Luminescence ages from a variety of coastal features on the North Carolina Coastal Plain provide age control for shoreline formation and relative sea-level position during the late Pleistocene. A series of paleoshoreline ridges, dating to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a and MIS 3 have been defined. The Kitty Hawk beach ridges, on the modern Outer Banks, yield ages of 3 to 2 ka. Oxygen-isotope data are used to place these deposits in the context of global climate and sea-level change. The occurrence of MIS 5a and MIS 3 shorelines suggests that glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) of the study area is large (ca. 22 to 26 m), as suggested and modeled by other workers, and/or MIS 3 sea level was briefly higher than suggested by some coral reef studies. Correcting the shoreline elevations for GIA brings their elevation in line with other sea-level indicators. The age of the Kitty Hawk beach ridges places the Holocene shoreline well west of its present location at ca. 3 to 2 ka. The age of shoreline progradation is consistent with the ages of other beach ridge complexes in the southeast USA, suggesting some regionally contemporaneous forcing mechanism.     

Stabilization and reactivation of cratonic lithosphere from the lower crustal record in the western Canadian shield

New U–Pb geochronology for an extensive exposure of high-pressure granulites in the East Lake Athabasca region of the western Canadian shield is consistent with a history characterized by 2.55 Ga stabilization of cratonic lithosphere, 650 million years of lower crustal residence and cratonic stability, and 1.9 Ga reactivation of the craton during lithospheric attenuation and asthenospheric upwelling. High precision single-grain and fragment zircon data define distinctive discordia arrays between 2.55 and 1.9 Ga. U–Pb ion microprobe spot analyses yield a similar range of U–Pb dates with no obvious correlation between date and cathodoluminescence zonation. We attribute the complex U–Pb zircon systematics to growth of the primary populations during a 2.55 Ga high-pressure granulite facies event (~1.3 GPa, 850°C) recorded by the dominant mineral assemblage of the mafic granulite gneisses, with subsequent zircon recrystallization and minor secondary zircon growth during a second high-pressure granulite facies event (1.0 GPa, ~800°C) at 1.9 Ga. The occurrence of two discrete granulite facies metamorphic events in the lower crust, separated by an interval of 650 million years that included isobaric cooling for at least some of this time, suggests that the rocks resided at lower crustal depths until 1.9 Ga. We infer that this phase of lower crustal residence and little tectonic activity is coincident with an extended period of cratonic stability. Detailed structural and thermochronological datasets indicate that multistage unroofing of the lower crustal rocks occurred in the following 200 million years. Extended lower crustal residence would logically be the history inferred for lower crust in most cratonic regions, but the unusual aspect of the history in the East Lake Athabasca region is the subsequent lithospheric reactivation that initiated transport of the lower crust to the surface. We suggest that a weakened strength profile related to the 1.9 Ga heating left the lithosphere susceptible to far-field tectonic stresses from bounding orogens that drove the lower crustal exhumation. An ultimate return to cratonic stability is responsible for the preservation of this extensive lower crustal exposure since 1.7 Ga.     

Manufactured home building regulations and the February 2, 2007 Florida tornadoes

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the state of Florida implemented new wind load and tie-down regulations for manufactured homes following Hurricane Andrew. This article examines the effect of the new regulations on the likelihood that occupants of mobile homes would survive a tornado. On February 2, 2007, three tornadoes struck central Florida, resulting in 21 deaths in Lake County, all in manufactured homes. The deaths occurred almost exclusively in homes rated as leveled by the county tax appraiser. Manufactured homes built to the new regulations, however, were significantly less likely to be leveled. Regression analysis finds that manufactured homes built to the post-Andrew requirements were 79% less likely to be leveled than homes built prior to the HUD Code in 1976, and 68% less likely to be leveled than homes built after 1976 but before the 1994 wind load regulations. Construction of all manufactured homes in the tornado paths to the wind load and tie-down requirements could have reduced fatalities by 70%.

Examining the Variability of Crossing Times for Canadian Trucks at the Three Major Canada–U.S. Border Crossings

Land borders connecting Canada and the United States are vital transportation facilities for the two countries. Truck crossing times at these facilities can have a significant impact on the performance of the economy. To date, knowledge about border crossing times has been limited due to lack of detailed data on the Canadian border. This article explores and models the patterns of crossing times at the three major land crossings connecting Canada to the United States: Ambassador Bridge, Blue Water Bridge, and Peace Bridge. The analysis is based on 387,775 border crossing truck trips that were generated between Canada and the United States over a course of twelve months. Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models are estimated to evaluate the seasonal and hourly crossing times of Canada- and U.S.-bound trips on each border crossing, controlling for traffic intensity in the models. The SUR modeling approach is chosen to control for potential cross-model correlations. The results suggest that crossing times at the border vary by season and hour of the day. Crossing times also vary by direction of traffic and by type of day (i.e., weekday vs. weekend). Traffic intensity has a significant influence on crossing times at two of the crossings but not the Blue Water Bridge. Finally, crossing times are more variable during the summer season and tend to be higher during the late evening hours and past midnight.     

What if negative emission technologies fail at scale? Implications of the Paris Agreement for big emitting nations

A cumulative emissions approach is increasingly used to inform mitigation policy. However, there are different interpretations of what ‘2°C’ implies. Here it is argued that cost-optimization models, commonly used to inform policy, typically underplay the urgency of 2°C mitigation. The alignment within many scenarios of optimistic assumptions on negative emissions technologies (NETs), with implausibly early peak emission dates and incremental short-term mitigation, delivers outcomes commensurate with 2°C commitments. In contrast, considering equity and socio-technical barriers to change, suggests a more challenging short-term agenda. To understand these different interpretations, short-term CO₂ trends of the largest CO₂ emitters, are assessed in relation to a constrained CO₂ budget, coupled with a ‘what if’ assumption that negative emissions technologies fail at scale. The outcomes raise profound questions around high-level framings of mitigation policy. The article concludes that applying even weak equity criteria, challenges the feasibility of maintaining a 50% chance of avoiding 2°C without urgent mitigation efforts in the short-term. This highlights a need for greater engagement with: (1) the equity dimension of the Paris Agreement, (2) the sensitivity of constrained carbon budgets to short-term trends and (3) the climate risks for society posed by an almost ubiquitous inclusion of NETs within 2°C scenarios.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Since the Paris meeting, there is increased awareness that most policy ‘solutions’ commensurate with 2°C include widespread deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). Yet much less is understood about that option’s feasibility, compared with near-term efforts to curb energy demand. Moreover, the many different ways in which key information is synthesized for policy makers, clouds the ability of policy makers to make informed decisions. This article presents an alternative approach to consider what the Paris Agreement implies, if NETs are unable to deliver more carbon sinks than sources. It illustrates the scale of the climate challenge for policy makers, particularly if the Agreement’s aim to address ‘equity’ is accounted for. Here it is argued that much more attention needs to be paid to what CO₂ reductions can be achieved in the short-term, rather than taking a risk that could render the Paris Agreement’s policy goals unachievable.     

Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining in Senegal: Livelihoods,Customary Authority,and Formalization

In Sub-Saharan Africa, efforts to formalize the artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) sector under legal frameworks and to improve its environmental and health practices have largely failed as a result of top-down policy measures that make change complicated and burdensome for low-resource miners. Using evidence from a case study of the ASGM sector within areas of Senegal, this article demonstrates that ASGM has become an important source of income for many traditionally agricultural rural populations. The findings point toward the embedded nature of ASGM within customary management structures in Senegal, and demonstrate that customary authority is an important component of ASGM operations and development, and should be recognized and integrated into innovative formalization policies and better practices initiatives.     

Atmospheric circulation climate changes

The role of the atmospheric circulation in climate change is examined. A review is given of the information available in the past record on the atmosheric circulation and its role in climate change, firstly at the surface via sea level pressure in both the northern and southern hemispheres and secondly for the free atmosphere. As with most climate information, the climate record is compromised by non-physical inhomogeneities arising from changes in observing and analyzing techniques and changes in data coverage. Problems with and threats to the rawinsonde network are discussed. Global analyses produced by the operational centers, U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), for weather forecasting purposes contain many discontinuous changes in the analyses arising from improvements in the system used to produce them. A discussion is given of the prospects for and motivation behind an activity known as reanalysis in which the historical data are reanalyzed using a state-of-the-art system that is held constant for the entire record. The only sources of spurious change then are the changes in the observing system, such as the introduction of space-based observations. Recommendations are made on needed actions for better understanding and monitoring climate change.The role of the atmospheric circulation and the strong links to other variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind are established and illustrated with a survey of decadal variability, the evidence for it, and the way in which the observed atmospheric circulation is involved in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors. The importance of teleconnections is stressed, especially in the winter half year, for understanding local climate change. The likelihood that changes will be manifested in the frequency and intensity of preferred modes of behavior in the atmosphere, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific-North American teleconnection patterns, rather than in changes in the modes is also emphasized. The recently observed climate changes and the tendency for an unprecedented prolonged El Niño are interpreted in this framework. The key coupled atmosphere-ocean character of decadal variability is noted with the atmosphere providing the spatial scales, the ocean the memory, but also with the need for collaborative, as opposed to destructive, interactions through the atmospheric circulation.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.