Computational and rapid expected annual loss estimation methodologies for structures

Expected annual loss (EAL), which can be expressed in dollars, is an effective way of communicating the seismic vulnerability of constructed facilities to owners and insurers. A simplified method for estimating EAL without conducting time‐consuming non‐linear dynamic analyses is presented. Relationships between intensity measures and engineering demand parameters resulting from a pushover analysis and a modified capacity‐spectrum method are combined with epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to arrive at a probabilistic demand model. Damage measures are established to determine thresholds for damage states from which loss ratios can be defined. Financial implications due to damage can then be quantified in the form of EAL by integrating total losses for all likely earthquake scenarios. This rapid loss estimation method is verified through the computationally intensive incremental dynamic analysis, with the results processed using a distribution‐free methodology. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the seismic vulnerability of two highway bridge piers is compared; one bridge is traditionally designed for ductility while the other is based on an emerging damage avoidance design (DAD) philosophy. The DAD pier is found to have a clear advantage over the conventional pier; the EAL of the DAD pier is less than 20% of its ductile counterpart. This is shown to be primarily due to its inherent damage‐free behaviour for small to medium earthquake intensities, whose contribution to EAL is significantly more than that of very rare events. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Synergistic toxic effects of zinc pyrithione and copper to three marine species: Implications on setting appropriate water quality criteria

Zinc pyrithione (ZnPT) is widely applied in conjunction with copper (Cu) in antifouling paints as a substitute for tributyltin. The combined effects of ZnPT and Cu on marine organisms, however, have not been fully investigated. This study examined the toxicities of ZnPT alone and in combination with Cu to the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, polychaete larvae Hydroides elegans and amphipod Elasmopus rapax. Importantly, ZnPT and Cu resulted in a strong synergistic effect with isobologram interaction parameter lambda>1 for all test species. The combined toxicity of ZnPT and Cu was successfully modelled using the non-parametric response surface and its contour. Such synergistic effects may be partly due to the formation of copper pyrithione. It is, therefore, inadequate to assess the ecological risk of ZnPT to marine organisms solely based on the toxicity data generated from the biocide alone. To better protect precious marine resources, it is advocated to develop appropriate water quality criteria for ZnPT with the consideration of its compelling synergistic effects with Cu at environmentally realistic concentrations.     

Use of N stable isotope and microbial analyses to define wastewater influence in Mobile Bay, AL

We assessed short-term ecological and potential human health effects of wastewater treatment plant (WTP) effluent by measuring δ¹⁵N‰ and microbial concentrations in oysters and suspended particulate matter (SPM). We also tested male-specific bacteriophage (MSB) as an alternative to fecal coliforms, to assess potential influence of wastewater contamination on shellfish. WTP effluent did not affect oyster growth or survival, but SPM and oysters acquired wastewater-specific δ¹⁵N‰. δ¹⁵N values were depleted near the WTP, typical of low-level processed wastewater. Fecal coliform and MSB concentrations were higher in samples taken closest to the WTP, and MSB values were significantly correlated with δ¹⁵N‰ in oyster tissues. Overall, oysters demonstrated relatively rapid integration and accumulation of wastewater-specific δ¹⁵N‰ and indicator microorganisms compared to water samples. These data suggest oysters were superior sentinels compared to water, and MSB was a more reliable indicator of wastewater influence on shellfish than fecal coliforms.     

Making sense of Australian earthquakes: the Ambraseys legacy

Through his students, Professor Nick Ambraseys has had a strong impact on the introduction of earthquake engineering practices in Australia, including historical earthquake studies, strong motion instrumentation and analysis, foundation studies including liquefaction, and building code formulation. In Australia the process of upgrading the third and current edition of the earthquake code and hazard map has begun. There are now about 150 digital strong motion recorders installed in cities, on major structures and at Australian National Seismograph Network sites. Three volumes of an isoseismal atlas have been published totalling more than 300 maps, mainly historical earthquakes. Significant progress has been made in paleoseismological studies across the continent, adding to the complexity of the intraplate seismicity model. With time and more installed accelerographs, the peak ground acceleration recorded in Australia has increased from .25 g in 1984 to .5 g in 1988 and 1 g in 1994, all from earthquakes smaller than magnitude 5, supporting Ambraseys contention that PGA alone is not a suitable parameter for a design ground motion.     

Gradual Fault Weakening with Seismic Slip: Inferences from the Seismic Sequences of L’Aquila, 2009, and Northridge, 1994

We estimate seismological fracture energies from two subsets of events selected from the seismic sequences of L’Aquila (2009), and Northridge (1994): 57 and 16 selected events, respectively, including the main shocks. Following Abercrombie and Rice (Geophys J Int 162: 406–424, 2005), we postulate that fracture energy (G) represents the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve, which is described by the evolution of shear traction as a function of slip. Following a direct-wave approach, we compute mainshock-/aftershock-source spectral ratios, and analyze them using the approach proposed by Malagnini et al. (Pure Appl. Geophys., this issue, 2014) to infer corner frequencies and seismic moment. Our estimates of source parameters (including fracture energies) are based on best-fit grid-searches performed over empirical source spectral ratios. We quantify the source scaling of spectra from small and large earthquakes by using the MDAC formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised Magnitude and Distance Amplitude Correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001). The source parameters presented in this paper must be considered as point-source estimates representing averages calculated over specific ruptured portions of the fault area. In order to constrain the scaling of fracture energy with coseismic slip, we investigate two different slip-weakening functions to model the shear traction as a function of slip: (i) a power law, as suggested by Abercrombie and Rice (Geophys J Int 162: 406–424, 2005), and (ii) an exponential decay. Our results show that the exponential decay of stress on the fault allows a good fit between measured and predicted fracture energies, both for the main events and for their aftershocks, regardless of the significant differences in the energy budgets between the large (main) and small earthquakes (aftershocks). Using the power-law slip-weakening function would lead us to a very different situation: in our two investigated sequences, if the aftershock scaling is extrapolated to events with large slips, a power law (a la Abercrombie and Rice) would predict unrealistically large stress drops for large, main earthquakes. We conclude that the exponential stress evolution law has the advantage of avoiding unrealistic stress drops and unbounded fracture energies at large slip values, while still describing the abrupt shear-stress degradation observed in high-velocity laboratory experiments (e.g., Di Toro et al., Fault lubrication during earthquakes, Nature 2011).     

How to Invert Multi-Band,Regional Phase Amplitudes for 2-D Attenuation and Source Parameters: Tests Using the USArray

We inverted for laterally varying attenuation, absolute site terms, moments and apparent stress using over 460,000 Lg amplitudes recorded by the USArray for frequencies between 0.5 and 16 Hz. Corner frequencies of Wells, Nevada, aftershocks, obtained by independent analysis of coda spectral ratios, controlled the tradeoff between attenuation and stress, while independently determined moments from St. Louis University and the University of California constrained absolute levels. The quality factor, Q, was low for coastal regions and interior volcanic and tectonic areas, and high for stable regions such as the Great Plains, and Colorado and Columbia Plateaus. Q increased with frequency, and the rate of increase correlated inversely with 1-Hz Q, with highest rates in low-Q tectonic regions, and lowest rates in high-Q stable areas. Moments matched independently determined moments with a scatter of 0.2 NM. Apparent stress ranged from below 0.01 to above 1 MPa, with means of 0.1 MPa for smaller events, and 0.3 MPa for larger events. Stress was observed to be spatially coherent in some areas; for example, stress was lower along the San Andreas fault through central and northern California, and higher in the Walker Lane, and for isolated sequences such as Wells. Variance reduction relative to 1-D models ranged from 50 to 90 % depending on band and inversion method. Parameterizing frequency dependent Q as a power law produced little misfit relative to a collection of independent, multi-band Q models, and performed better than the omega-square source parameterization in that sense. Amplitude residuals showed modest, but regionally coherent patterns that varied from event to event, even between those with similar source mechanisms, indicating a combination of focal mechanism, and near source propagation effects played a role. An exception was the Wells mainshock, which produced dramatic amplitude patterns due to its directivity, and was thus excluded from the inversions. The 2-D Q plus absolute site models can be used for high accuracy, broad area source spectra, magnitude and yield estimation, and, in combination with models for all regional phases, can be used to improve discrimination, in particular for intermediate bands that allow coverage to be extended beyond that available for high frequency P-to-S discriminants.     

Unravelling the morphogenesis of coastal terraces at Cape Laundi (Sumba Island,Indonesia): Insights from numerical models

The morphology of coastal sequences provides fundamental observations to unravel past sea level (SL) variations. For that purpose, converting morphometric observations into a SL datum requires understanding their morphogenesis. The long-lasting sequence of coral reef terraces (CRTs) at Cape Laundi (Sumba Island, Indonesia) could serve as a benchmark. Yet, it epitomizes a pitfall that challenges the ultimate goal: the overall chronology of its development remains poorly constrained. The polycyclic nature of the terraces, involving marine erosion and reoccupation of old coral colonies by more recent ones hinders any clear assignment of Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) to specific terraces, in particular the reference datum corresponding to the last Interglacial maximum (i.e., MIS 5e). Thus, to overcome these obstacles, we numerically model the genesis of the sequence, testing a range of eustatic SL (ESL) reconstructions and uplift rates, as well as exploring the parameter space to address reef growth, erosion and sedimentation. A total of 625 model runs allowed us to improve the morpho-chronological constraints of the coastal sequence and, more particularly, to explain the morphogenesis of the several CRTs associated with MIS 5e. Our results suggest that the lowermost main terrace was first constructed during the marine transgression of MIS 5e and was later reshaped during the marine regression of MIS 5e, as well as during the MIS 5c and MIS 5a highstands. Finally, we discuss the general morphology of the sequence and the implications it may have on SL reconstructions. At Cape Laundi, as elsewhere, we emphasize the necessity of addressing the development of CRT sequences with a dynamic approach, that is, considering that a CRT is a landform built continuously throughout the history of SL oscillations, and not simply during a singular SL maximum.