Great expectations: can international emissions trading deliver an equitable climate regime?

Climate change equity debates tend to focus on achieving a fair and global ‘allocation’ of emission rights among countries. Allocation proposals typically envision, if implicitly, two purposes for international emissions trading. First, trading is expected to serve as a cost-effective means of promoting compliance with emissions targets. Second, trading is posited as a means to generate financial transfers, typically from industrialized to transitioning and developing countries.This article investigates the common assumption that international emissions trading will effectively serve both of these purposes. We conclude that the two purposes might not be mutually supportive, and that efforts to use international emissions trading as a financial transfer mechanism may potentially undermine cost-effectiveness goals. International emissions trading on a global scale would create new risks in terms of both cost-effectiveness and environmental performance, some of which will be challenging to manage. In particular, uncertainties over market prices and trading eligibility, coupled with the costs of participation, may together be the Achilles heel of some allocation proposals that entail large financial transfers from industrialized to developing countries. Any proposal for an ‘equitable’ allocation of emission allowances, we conclude, must be cognizant of the risks and costs implied by a reliance on international emissions trading. We offer some suggestions to this end.     

Cathodoluminescence petrography and isotope geochemistry of KT impact ejecta deposited 360 km from the Chicxulub crater, at Albion Island, Belize

The depositional and diagenetic history of Cretaceous–Tertiary (KT) impact ejecta deposited 360 km from the Chicxulub crater, at Albion Island, Belize, has been investigated using integrated cathodoluminescence and isotopic analyses. A quarry exposes 26 m of Upper Cretaceous Barton Creek Formation dolomitized marine limestone overlain by 16 m of dolomitized Albion Formation impact ejecta. The Albion Formation consists of a lower fine‐grained ≈1‐m‐thick spheroid bed and an upper 15‐m‐thick coarse conglomeratic diamictite bed. A 14‐event paragenetic sequence has been documented and used as a temporal framework to interpret chemostratigraphic trends in bulk rock δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr. The uppermost surface of the Barton Creek Formation was subaerially exposed before the KT impact, as indicated by a brecciated palaeosol that caps upsection decreases in δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O. Small 1‐cm‐diameter spheroids in the spheroid bed exhibit vermicular crystalline textures but lack the concentric zonations common to accretionary lapilli. These spheroids are hypothesized originally to have been impact glass or reactive Ca and Mg oxide dusts that adhered to water vapour particles condensing from the cooling impact vapour cloud. The spheroids were dolomitized soon after deposition. The earliest dolomitization in the matrix sediments of the Albion Formation was also post‐depositional, replacing clays formed by devitrification of impact glass. Dolomite and clay ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr exhibit a distinct symmetrical distribution in the spheroid bed ranging from 0·707745 to 0·707872. Although unproven, this may represent primary changes in the chemical composition of the impact glass. The limestone clasts in the diamictite bed were dolomitized before the KT impact and exhibit upsection decreases in bulk rock ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr. This suggests that the clasts were excavated from strata equivalent in age or older than the Barton Creek Formation at locations closer to, or in, the Chicxulub crater.     

Field-scale Variations in Plant and Grasshopper Communities: A GIS-based Assessment

GIS technology allowed us to examine species-specific occurrence and abundance patterns of important grassland herbivore species through the use of appropriate statistical methods and the superior spatial representation commonly available in existing GIS packages. The study was conducted on a 254 ha grassland area located 10 km south of Three Forks, Gallatin County, Montana, in the Agropyron spicatum province of the western steppe region of the U.S.A. From an ecological perspective, grasshopper species distribution and abundance patterns observed on a local, non-uniform landscape (2.6 km 2) were consistent with results found in other studies at the valley (≈1,400 km 2) and state-level (≈237,000 km 2) scales. Our observations at the local scale further demonstrate the importance of vegetation type and specific local stand physiognomies in structuring grasshopper populations. The application of results from studies conducted at various scales to the development of decision support tools for resource managers is also discussed.     

Combining dissolved, suspended and bed load stream geochemistry to explore for volcanic massive sulfide deposits: Big Salmon Complex, northern British Columbia

Exploration successes for volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposits, such as Kudz Ze Kayah, Wolverine and Fyre Lake in the Yukon–Tanana Terrane and Slide Mountain Terrane (southern Yukon Territory) have spurred interest in the correlative rocks in the Big Salmon Complex in northern British Columbia. In an effort to further the utility of multi-media stream geochemistry in exploration frontiers that are forested, heavily drift covered, or buried, the primary streams of 19 watersheds from the East Teslin Lake (National Topographic System (NTS): 104N/9, 16) and Teh Creek areas (NTS: 104O/11, 12, 13, 14) of the Big Salmon Complex were analyzed for Cu, Pb, and Zn and other parameters in the dissolved load, suspended load and bed load. Traditionally, exploration based on stream geochemistry has employed the bed load and more recently the dissolved load chemistry, but almost never the suspended load despite strong differences in the geochemical signatures of the three media. Here, we document that copper, lead, and zinc partition into the dissolved, suspended, and bed loads differently and that the magnitude of anomalies is different for each media. The adsorbing capacity of the suspended load may make it a more sensitive indicator of mineral deposits on a regional basis than either the trace-element-poor dissolved load or the bulk-rock-diluted bed load which are likely better indicators of local mineralization. It is clear that each phase contributes unique information about the distribution of elements in the watershed that could be considered in exploration models.We also show that summing standardized element concentrations and summing the sums across media appears to be an effective method to reduce the data without loss of important information. We likewise investigated the utility of calculating major element normalized enrichments for exploration and find that it is a promising approach.     

Evaluation of the SNOWPACK model’s metamorphism and microstructure in Canada: a case study

The snow thermodynamic multi-layer model SNOWPACK was developed to address the risk of avalanches by simulating the vertical properties of snow. Risk and stability assessments are based on the simulation of the vertical variability of snow microstructure, as well as on snow cohesion parameters. Previous research has shown systematic error in grain size simulations (equivalent optical grain size) over several areas in northern Canada. To quantify the simulated errors in snow grain size and uncertainties in stability, the snow specific surface area (SSA) was measured with a laser-based instrument. Optical grain size was retrieved to validate the optical equivalent grain radius from SNOWPACK. The two study plots are located in Glacier National Park, BC, and Jasper National Park, AB, Canada. Profiles for density and stratigraphic analysis were obtained as well as grain size profiles, combined with snow micropenetrometer (SMP) measurements. Density analysis showed good agreement with the simulated values (R² = 0.76). Optical grain size analysis showed systematic overestimation of the modeled values, in agreement with the current literature. The error in SSA evolution for a rounding environment was mostly constant, whereas error for conditions driven by a temperature gradient was linked to the size of the facetted grains.     

Dating prehistoric bog-fires in northern England to calendar years by long-distance cross-matching of pine chronologies

The ages of prehistoric fires can be approximated by radiocarbon dating of charcoal or associated material, but such dating is often inaccurate and at best imprecise. Pine trunks preserved in British and Irish peats occasionally show firescars, which might be dated through dendrochronology to yield calendar-year dates. However, unlike oak, there is no master pine chronology to provide absolute dates, so dating is dependent on interspecies cross-matching; for sites in the British Isles with no dated oaks, calendar-year dating of prehistoric pines has hitherto proved impossible. We present a first success in dating, accurately and precisely, prehistoric fire events recorded in subfossil bog-pine trunks, using long-distance cross-matching of pine chronologies between White Moss, Cheshire, and the Humberhead Levels, England. Results demonstrate a bog-fire in Cheshire in spring 2800 BC, and again in 2710 BC, between spring and summer. Further successful long-distance cross-matching of pine would permit international climatological comparisons. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating sand concentrations using ADCP-based acoustic inversion in a large fluvial system characterized by bi-modal suspended-sediment distributions

Quantifying sediment flux within rivers is a challenge for many disciplines due, mainly, to difficulties inherent to traditional sediment sampling methods. These methods are operationally complex, high cost, and high risk. Additionally, the resulting data provide a low spatial and temporal resolution estimate of the total sediment flux, which has impeded advances in the understanding of the hydro-geomorphic characteristics of rivers. Acoustic technologies have been recognized as a leading tool for increasing the resolution of sediment data by relating their echo intensity level measurements to suspended sediment. Further effort is required to robustly test and develop these techniques across a wide range of conditions found in natural river systems. This article aims to evaluate the application of acoustic inversion techniques using commercially available, down-looking acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) in quantifying suspended sediment in a large sand bed river with varying bi-modal particle size distributions, wash load and suspended-sand ratios, and water stages. To achieve this objective, suspended sediment was physically sampled along the Paraná River, Argentina, under various hydro-sedimentological regimes. Two ADCPs emitting different sound frequencies were used to simultaneously profile echo intensity level within the water column. Using the sonar equation, calibrations were determined between suspended-sand concentrations and acoustic backscatter to solve the inverse problem. The study also analyzed the roles played by each term of the sonar equation, such as ADCP frequency, power supply, instrument constants, and particle size distributions typically found in sand bed rivers, on sediment attenuation and backscatter. Calibrations were successfully developed between corrected backscatter and suspended-sand concentrations for all sites and ADCP frequencies, resulting in mean suspended-sand concentration estimates within about 40% of the mean sampled concentrations. Noise values, calculated using the sonar equation and sediment sample characteristics, were fairly constant across evaluations, suggesting that they could be applied to other sand bed rivers. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tracing the temporal evolution of soil redistribution rates in an agricultural landscape using 239+240Pu and 10Be

Two principal groups of processes shape mass fluxes from and into a soil: vertical profile development and lateral soil redistribution. Periods having predominantly progressive soil forming processes (soil profile development) alternate with periods having predominantly regressive processes (erosion). As a result, short-term soil redistribution – years to decades – can differ substantially from long-term soil redistribution; i.e. centuries to millennia. However, the quantification of these processes is difficult and consequently their rates are poorly understood. To assess the competing roles of erosion and deposition we determined short- and long-term soil redistribution rates in a formerly glaciated area of the Uckermark, northeast Germany. We compared short-term erosion or accumulation rates using plutonium-239 and -240 (^239+240Pu) and long-term rates using both in situ and meteoric cosmogenic beryllium-10 (¹⁰Be). Three characteristic process domains have been analysed in detail: a flat landscape position having no erosion/deposition, an erosion-dominated mid-slope, and a deposition-dominated lower-slope site. We show that the short-term mass erosion and accumulation rates are about one order of magnitude higher than long-term redistribution rates. Both, in situ and meteoric ¹⁰Be provide comparable results. Depth functions, and therefore not only an average value of the topsoil, give the most meaningful rates. The long-term soil redistribution rates were in the range of −2.1 t ha^-1 yr^-1 (erosion) and +0.26 t ha^-1 yr^-1 (accumulation) whereas the short-term erosion rates indicated strong erosion of up to 25 t ha^-1 yr^-1 and accumulation of 7.6 t ha^-1 yr^-1. Our multi-isotope method identifies periods of erosion and deposition, confirming the ‘time-split approach’ of distinct different phases (progressive/regressive) in soil evolution. With such an approach, temporally-changing processes can be disentangled, which allows the identification of both the dimensions of and the increase in soil erosion due to human influence. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate and relief-induced controls on the temporal variability of denudation rates in a granitic upland

How soil erosion rates evolved over the last about 100 ka and how they relate to environmental and climate variability is largely unknown. This is due to a lack of suitable archives that help to trace this evolution. We determined in situ cosmogenic beryllium-10 (¹⁰Be) along vertical landforms (tors, boulders and scarps) on the Sila Massif to unravel their local exhumation patterns to develop a surface denudation model over millennia. Due to the physical resistance of tors, their rate of exhumation may be used to derive surface and, thus, soil denudation rates over time. We derived soil denudation rates that varied in the range 0–0.40 mm yr^-1. The investigated boulders, however, appear to have experienced repositioning processes about ~20–25 ka bp and were therefore a less reliable archive. The scarps of the Sila upland showed a rapid bedrock exposure within the last 8–15 ka. Overall, the denudation rates increased steadily after 75 ka bp but remained low until about 17 ka bp . The exhumation rates indicate a denudation pulse that occurred about 17–5 ka bp . Since then the rates have continuously decreased. We identify three key factors for these developments – climate, topography and vegetation. Between 75 and 17 ka bp , climate was colder and drier than today. The rapid changes towards warmer and humid conditions at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition apparently increased denudation rates. A denser vegetation cover with time counteracted denudation. Topography also determined the extent of denudation rates in the upland regime. On slopes, denudation rates were generally higher than on planar surfaces. By determining the exhumation rates of tors and scarps, soil erosion rates could be determined over long timescales and be related to topography and particularly to climate. This is key for understanding geomorphic dynamics under current environmental settings and future climate change. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.