Comparison of a Manual and an Automated Tracking Method for Tibetan Plateau Vortices

Tibetan Plateau vortices(TPVs) are mesoscale cyclones originating over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) during the extended summer season(April–September).Most TPVs stay on the TP,but a small number can move off the TP to the east.TPVs are known to be one of the main precipitation-bearing systems on the TP and moving-off TPVs have been associated with heavy precipitation and flooding downstream of the TP(e.g.,in Sichuan province or over the Yangtze River Valley).Identifying and tracking TPVs is difficult because of their comparatively small horizontal extent(400–800 km) and the limited availability of soundings over the TP,which in turn constitutes a challenge for short-term predictions of TPV-related impacts and for the climatological study of TPVs.In this study,(i) manual tracking(MT) results using radiosonde data from a network over and downstream of the TP are compared with(ii) results obtained by an automated tracking(AT) algorithm applied to ERA-Interim data.Ten MT-TPV cases are selected based on method(i) and matched to and compared with the corresponding AT-TPVs identified with method(ii).Conversely,ten AT-TPVs are selected and compared with the corresponding MT-TPVs.In general,the comparison shows good results in cases where the underlying data are in good agreement,but considerable differences are also seen in some cases and explained in terms of differences in the tracking methods,data availability/coverage and disagreement between sounding and ERA-Interim data.Recommendations are given for future efforts in TPV detection and tracking,including in an operational weather forecasting context.     

Changes in Climate Extremes Over the Australian Region and New Zealand During the Twentieth Century

Analyses of high quality data show that there have been some interesting recent changes in the incidence of some climate extremes in the Australian region and New Zealand.     

Electron spin resonance dating of the fossil deposits in the Naracoorte Caves,South Australia

The caves near Naracoorte, South Australia, contain one of the richest and most diverse fossil faunal assemblages on the Australian continent. Three sites were selected for electron spin resonance (ESR) dating because clastic, fossiliferous sediments were sandwiched between speleothem layers. This allows independent age control by highly precise thermal ionization mass‐spectrometry (TIMS) U‐series dating. We find that all ESR results agree within the constraints given by the U‐series dates, and allow further refinement of the age of the fauna analysed, indicating that most of the fauna in the large Victoria Cave Fossil Chamber is twice as old as reported previously. Our dating results, spanning from 280 to 500 ka for the Fossil Chamber, Victoria Cave, to about 125 ka for the Grant Hall, Victoria Cave, and 170 to 280 ka for the Fossil Chamber, Cathedral Cave, indicate little change, if any, in the megafaunal assemblage from the early Middle to the early Late Pleistocene. This changed dramatically after the last interglacial, when a large proportion of the megafauna suddenly disappeared. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A finite element model for seismic response analysis of deformable rocking frames

A new finite element model to analyze the seismic response of deformable rocking bodies and rocking structures is presented. The model comprises a set of beam elements to represent the rocking body and zero‐length fiber cross‐section elements at the ends of the rocking body to represent the rocking surfaces. The energy dissipation during rocking motion is modeled using a Hilber–Hughes–Taylor numerically dissipative time step integration scheme. The model is verified through correct prediction of the horizontal and vertical displacements of a rigid rocking block and validated against the analytical Housner model solution for the rocking response of rigid bodies subjected to ground motion excitation. The proposed model is augmented by a dissipative model of the ground under the rocking surface to facilitate modeling of the rocking response of deformable bodies and structures. The augmented model is used to compute the overturning and uplift rocking response spectra for a deformable rocking frame structure to symmetric and anti‐symmetric Ricker pulse ground motion excitation. It is found that the deformability of the columns of a rocking frame does not jeopardize its stability under Ricker pulse ground motion excitation. In fact, there are cases where a deformable rocking frame is more stable than its rigid counterpart. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary forest harvesting

Stream temperature is a key physical water‐quality parameter, controlling many biological, chemical, and physical processes in aquatic ecosystems. Maintenance of cool stream temperatures during summer is critical for high‐quality aquatic habitat. As such, transmission of warm water from small, nonfish‐bearing headwater streams after forest harvesting could cause warming in downstream fish‐bearing stream reaches with negative consequences. In this study, we evaluate (a) the effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature in small, headwater streams, (b) the transmission of thermal signals from headwater reaches after harvesting to downstream fish‐bearing reaches, and (c) the relative role of lithology and forest management practices in influencing differential thermal responses in both the headwater and downstream reaches. We measured summer stream temperatures both preharvest and postharvest at 29 sites—12 upstream sites (4 reference, 8 harvested) and 17 downstream sites (5 reference, 12 harvested)—across 3 paired watershed studies in western Oregon. The 7‐day moving average of daily maximum stream temperature (T_7DAYMAX) was greater during the postharvest period relative to the preharvest period at 7 of the 8 harvested upstream sites. Although the T_7DAYMAX was generally warmer in the downstream direction at most of the stream reaches during both the preharvest and postharvest period, there was no evidence for additional downstream warming related to the harvesting activity. Rather, the T_7DAYMAX cooled rapidly as stream water flowed into forested reaches ~370–1,420 m downstream of harvested areas. Finally, the magnitude of effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature increased with the proportion of catchment underlain by more resistant lithology at both the headwater and downstream sites, reducing the potential for the cooling influence of groundwater.     

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily,Italy

Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.     

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.     

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.     

Lagged rejuvenation of groundwater indicates internal flow structures and hydrological connectivity

Large proportions of rainwater and snowmelt infiltrate into the subsurface before contributing to stream flow and stream water quality. Subsurface flow dynamics steer the transport and transformation of contaminants, carbon, weathering products and other biogeochemistry. The distribution of groundwater ages with depth is a key feature of these flow dynamics. Predicting these ages are a strong test of hypotheses about subsurface structures and time-varying processes. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-based groundwater ages revealed an unexpected groundwater age stratification in a 0.47 km² forested catchment called Svartberget in northern Sweden. An overall groundwater age stratification, representative for the Svartberget site, was derived by measuring CFCs from nine different wells with depths of 2–18 m close to the stream network. Immediately below the water table, CFC-based groundwater ages of already 30 years that increased with depth were found. Using complementary groundwater flow models, we could reproduce the observed groundwater age stratification and show that the 30 year lag in rejuvenation comes from return flow of groundwater at a subsurface discharge zone that evolves along the interface between two soil types. By comparing the observed groundwater age stratification with a simple analytical approximation, we show that the observed lag in rejuvenation can be a powerful indicator of the extent and structure of the subsurface discharge zone, while the vertical gradient of the age-depth-relationship can still be used as a proxy of the overall aquifer recharge even when sampled in the discharge zone. The single age stratification profile measured in the discharge zone, close to the aquifer outlet, can reveal the main structure of the groundwater flow pattern from recharge to discharge. This groundwater flow pattern provides information on the participation of groundwater in the hydrological cycle and indicates the lower boundary of hydrological connectivity.