Computational and rapid expected annual loss estimation methodologies for structures

Expected annual loss (EAL), which can be expressed in dollars, is an effective way of communicating the seismic vulnerability of constructed facilities to owners and insurers. A simplified method for estimating EAL without conducting time‐consuming non‐linear dynamic analyses is presented. Relationships between intensity measures and engineering demand parameters resulting from a pushover analysis and a modified capacity‐spectrum method are combined with epistemic and aleatory uncertainties to arrive at a probabilistic demand model. Damage measures are established to determine thresholds for damage states from which loss ratios can be defined. Financial implications due to damage can then be quantified in the form of EAL by integrating total losses for all likely earthquake scenarios. This rapid loss estimation method is verified through the computationally intensive incremental dynamic analysis, with the results processed using a distribution‐free methodology. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, the seismic vulnerability of two highway bridge piers is compared; one bridge is traditionally designed for ductility while the other is based on an emerging damage avoidance design (DAD) philosophy. The DAD pier is found to have a clear advantage over the conventional pier; the EAL of the DAD pier is less than 20% of its ductile counterpart. This is shown to be primarily due to its inherent damage‐free behaviour for small to medium earthquake intensities, whose contribution to EAL is significantly more than that of very rare events. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

有多个出口的北极地区微潮咸水湖的天气导致的次潮流

Estuarine processes in the arctic lagoons are among the least studied but important subjects, especially considering the rapid warming of arctic water which may change the length of ice-free period in the summer. In this paper, wind-driven exchange flows in the micro-tidal Elson Lagoon of northern Alaska with multiple inlets of contrasting widths and depths are studied with in situ observations, statistical analysis, numerical experiments, a regression model on the basis of dynamics, and remote sensing data. Water velocity profiles were obtained from a bottom deployed acoustic Doppler current profiler(ADCP) in the northwestern Eluitkak Pass connecting the Beaufort Sea to the Elson Lagoon during a 4.9 day ice-free period in the summer of 2013. The subtidal flow is found correlated with wind(R~2 value ～96%). Frequently occurring east, northeast and north winds from the arctic atmospheric high-and low-pressure systems push water from the Beaufort Sea into the lagoon through the wide inlets on the eastern side of the lagoon, resulting in an outward flow against the wind at the narrow northwestern inlet. The counter-wind flow is a result of an uneven wind forcing acting through the asymmetric inlets and depth,an effect of "torque" or vorticity. Under northwest wind, the exchange flow at the northwestern inlet reverses its direction, with inward flows through the upwind northwestern inlet and outward flows through the downwind eastern inlets. A regression model is established based on the momentum equations and Taylor series expansions. The model is used to predict flows in July and August of 2015 and July of 2017, supported by available Landsat satellite images. About 73%–80% of the time the flows at Eluitkak Pass are out of Elson Lagoon for the summer of 2015 and 2017. Numerical experiments are conducted to corroborate the findings and illustrate the effects under various wind conditions. A quasi-steady state balance between wind force and surface pressure gradient is confirmed.     

Geographic Polarization,Partisan Voting,And The Battle Over Same‐Sex Marriage Within The Culture War

Geographic polarization arises when partisan, or like‐minded, voters live in enclaves separate from voters of differing partisan behavior. Research studies at multiple scales of analysis suggest that geographic polarization most typically occurs regarding partisan voting behavior; however, few studies have analyzed polarization with a focus on policy preferences. This research examines same‐sex marriage policy through two statewide issues that shared the presidential election ballot in 2004. The results of that presidential election and these two ballot initiatives are examined in Cincinnati, Ohio, and counties in its surrounding Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in both Ohio and Kentucky. A geographically polarized relationship was found between partisan results and same‐sex marriage results. In addition, the findings suggest that despite a close link between partisan voting and issue voting on same‐sex marriage, spatial clustering (geographic polarization) was identified of those who voted differently from their fellow partisans.     

Simulated asteroid materials based on carbonaceous chondrite mineralogies

A set of high‐fidelity simulated asteroid materials, or simulants, was developed based on the mineralogy of carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. Three varieties of simulant were developed based on CI1 chondrites (typified by Orgueil), CM2 chondrites (typified by Murchison), and CR2/3 chondrites (multiple samples). The simulants were designed to replicate the mineralogy and physical properties of the corresponding meteorites and anticipated asteroid surface materials as closely as is reasonably possible for bulk amounts. The simulants can be made in different physical forms ranging from larger cobbles to fine‐grained regolith. We analyzed simulant prototypes using scanning electron microscopy, X‐ray fluorescence, reflectance spectroscopy at ambient conditions and in vacuum, thermal emission spectroscopy in a simulated asteroid environment chamber, and combined thermogravimetry and evolved gas analysis. Most measured properties compare favorably to the reference meteorites and therefore to predicted volatile‐rich asteroid surface materials, including boulders, cobbles, and fine‐grained soils. However, there were also discrepancies, and mistakes were made in the original mineral formulations that will be updated in the future. The asteroid simulants are available to the community from the nonprofit Exolith Lab at UCF, and the mineral recipes are freely published for other groups to reproduce and modify as they see fit.     

Source Parameters for 1999 North Anatolian Fault Zone Aftershocks

We develop a data set of aftershock recordings of the 1999, M = 7.4 Izmit and M = 7.2 Duzce (Turkey) earthquakes to study their source parameters. We combined seismograms from 44 stations maintained by several sources (organizations) to obtain a unified data set of events (2.1 ≤ M_w ≤ 5.5). We calculate source parameters of these small earthquakes by two methods that use different techniques to address the difficulty in obtaining source spectra for small earthquakes subject to interference from site response. One method (program NetMoment (NM), Hutchings, 2004) uses spectra of direct S waves in a simultaneous inversion of local high-frequency network data to estimate seismic moment, source corner frequency (f_c), site attenuation (k) and whole-path Q. This approach takes advantage of the source commonality in all recordings for a particular earthquake by fitting a common Brune source spectrum to the data with a and individual k. The second approach (Mayeda et al., 2003) uses the coda method (CM) to obtain “nonmodel-based” source spectra and moment estimates from selected broadband recording sites. We found that both methods do well for events that allow the comparison with seismic moment estimates derived from waveform modeling. Also, source spectra obtained from the two methods are very closely matched for most of the events they have in common. We use an F test to examine the trade-off between k and f_c picks identified by the direct S-wave method. About half of the events could be constrained to have less than a 50% average uncertainty in f_c and k. We used these source spectra solutions to calculate energy and apparent stress and compare these to estimates from the selected “good quality” source spectra from CM. Both studies have values mutually consistent and show a similar increase in apparent stress with increasing moment. This result has added merit due to the independent approaches to calculate apparent stress. We conclude that both methods are at least partially validated by our study, and they both have usefulness for different circumstances of recording local small earthquakes. CM would work well in studies for which there is a broad magnitude range of events and NM works well for local events recorded by band-limited recorders.     

Structures and facies associated with the flow of subaerial basaltic lava into a deep freshwater lake: The Sulphur Creek lava flow, North Cascades, Washington

The ca. 8800 ¹⁴C yrs BP Sulphur Creek lava flowed eastward 12 km from the Schriebers Meadow cinder cone into the Baker River valley, on the southeast flank of Mount Baker volcano. The compositionally-zoned basaltic to basaltic andesite lava entered, crossed and partially filled the 2-km-wide and > 100-m-deep early Holocene remnant of Glacial Lake Baker. The valley is now submerged beneath a reservoir, but seasonal drawdown permits study of the distal entrant lava. As a lava volume that may have been as much as 180 × 10⁶ m³ entered the lake, the flow invaded the lacustrine sequence and extended to the opposite (east) side of the drowned Baker River valley. The volume and mobility of the lava can be attributed to a high flux rate, a prolonged eruption, or both. Basalt exposed below the former level of the remnant glacial lake is glassy or microcrystalline and sparsely vesicular, with pervasive hackly or blocky fractures. Together with pseudopillow fractures, these features reflect fracturing normal to penetrative thermal fronts and quenching by water. A fine-grained hyaloclastite facies was probably formed during quench fragmentation or isolated magma-water explosions. Although the structures closely resemble those developed in lava-ice contact environments, establishing the depositional environment for lava exhibiting similar intense fracturing should be confirmed by geologic evidence rather than by internal structure alone. The lava also invaded the lacustrine sequence, forming varieties of peperite, including sills that are conformable within the invaded strata and resemble volcaniclastic breccias. The peperite is generally fragmental and clast- or matrix-supported; fine-grained and rounded fluidal margins occur locally. The lava formed a thickened subaqueous plug that, as the lake drained in the mid-Holocene, was exposed to erosion. The Baker River then cut a 52-m-deep gorge through the shattered, highly erodible basalt.     

Lithology and hydrocarbon mapping from multicomponent seismic data

Elastic rock properties can be estimated from prestack seismic data using amplitude variation with offset analysis. P‐wave, S‐wave and density ‘reflectivities’, or contrasts, can be inverted from angle‐band stacks. The ‘reflectivities’ are then inverted to absolute acoustic impedance, shear impedance and density. These rock properties can be used to map reservoir parameters through all stages of field development and production. When P‐wave contrast is small, or gas clouds obscure reservoir zones, multicomponent ocean‐bottom recording of converted‐waves (P to S or Ps) data provides reliable mapping of reservoir boundaries. Angle‐band stacks of multicomponent P‐wave (Pz) and Ps data can also be inverted jointly. In this paper Aki‐Richards equations are used without simplifications to invert angle‐band stacks to ‘reflectivities’. This enables the use of reflection seismic data beyond 30° of incident angles compared to the conventional amplitude variation with offset analysis. It, in turn, provides better shear impedance and density estimates. An important input to amplitude variation with offset analysis is the V_s/V_p ratio. Conventional methods use a constant or a time‐varying V_s/V_p model. Here, a time‐ and space‐varying model is used during the computation of the ‘reflectivities’. The V_s/V_p model is generated using well log data and picked horizons. For multicomponent data applications, the latter model can also be generated from processing V_s/V_p models and available well data. Reservoir rock properties such as λρ, μρ, Poisson's ratio and bulk modulus can be computed from acoustic impedance, shear impedance and density for pore fill and lithology identification. λ and μ are the Lamé constants and ρ is density. These estimations can also be used for a more efficient log property mapping. V_p/V_s ratio or Poisson's ratio, λρ and weighted stacks, such as the one computed from λρ and λ/μ, are good gas/oil and oil/water contact indicators, i.e., pore fill indicators, while μρ mainly indicates lithology. μρ is also affected by pressure changes. Results from a multicomponent data set are used to illustrate mapping of gas, oil and water saturation and lithology in a Tertiary sand/shale setting. Whilst initial log crossplot analysis suggested that pore fill discrimination may be possible, the inversion was not successful in revealing fluid effects. However, rock properties computed from acoustic impedance, shear impedance and density estimates provided good lithology indicators; pore fill identification was less successful. Neural network analysis using computed rock properties provided good indication of sand/shale distribution away from the existing wells and complemented the results depicted from individual rock property inversions.     

Satellite remote sensing for mapping vegetation in New Zealand freshwater environments: A review

Freshwater environments in New Zealand provide a range of ecosystem services and contain important biodiversity. Managing these environments effectively requires a comprehensive inventory of the resource and cost-effective tools for regular monitoring. The complex and extensive margins of natural water bodies make them difficult to sample comprehensively. Problems thus occur with extrapolating point-specific sampling to accurately represent the diversity of vegetation in large freshwater bodies. Mapping freshwater vegetation using satellite remote sensing can overcome problems associated with access, scale and distribution, but it requires high-resolution images that have appropriate spectral characteristics. This paper provides an overview of the optical satellite data characteristics required for mapping riparian, submerged and emergent vegetation associated with freshwater environments in New Zealand.     

Hydrothermal sediments associated with a relict back-arc spreading center in the Shikoku Basin, recovered from the Nankai accretionary prism, Japan

The hemipelagic mudrocks of the Nankai accretionary prism, Japan, contain hydrothermal deposits associated with a relict spreading center in the Shikoku Basin. Initial work on core samples from Ocean Drilling Program site 808 found several samples with elevated concentrations of calcium, magnesium, iron and manganese, at depths of between 1060 and 1111 m below sea floor. However, the origin of these sediments was uncertain, due to a lack of data. There was no recorded evidence of whether these elevated concentrations were present throughout this interval of core, or if they were present as discrete layers with the background hemipelagic mudrocks in between. In the present study the core was resampled, and the sediments with anomalous chemical compositions were found to be present in discrete layers. This fact, along with a detailed interpretation of their geochemistry, has allowed them to be identified as hydrothermal sediments, associated with the relict spreading center in the Shikoku Basin. The lower (older) two layers display a chemical composition typical of umbers, while the upper (younger) two layers are metalliferous mudrocks typical of deposits found further from the spreading center.