Changes in Climate Extremes Over the Australian Region and New Zealand During the Twentieth Century

Analyses of high quality data show that there have been some interesting recent changes in the incidence of some climate extremes in the Australian region and New Zealand.     

Electron spin resonance dating of the fossil deposits in the Naracoorte Caves,South Australia

The caves near Naracoorte, South Australia, contain one of the richest and most diverse fossil faunal assemblages on the Australian continent. Three sites were selected for electron spin resonance (ESR) dating because clastic, fossiliferous sediments were sandwiched between speleothem layers. This allows independent age control by highly precise thermal ionization mass‐spectrometry (TIMS) U‐series dating. We find that all ESR results agree within the constraints given by the U‐series dates, and allow further refinement of the age of the fauna analysed, indicating that most of the fauna in the large Victoria Cave Fossil Chamber is twice as old as reported previously. Our dating results, spanning from 280 to 500 ka for the Fossil Chamber, Victoria Cave, to about 125 ka for the Grant Hall, Victoria Cave, and 170 to 280 ka for the Fossil Chamber, Cathedral Cave, indicate little change, if any, in the megafaunal assemblage from the early Middle to the early Late Pleistocene. This changed dramatically after the last interglacial, when a large proportion of the megafauna suddenly disappeared. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A finite element model for seismic response analysis of deformable rocking frames

A new finite element model to analyze the seismic response of deformable rocking bodies and rocking structures is presented. The model comprises a set of beam elements to represent the rocking body and zero‐length fiber cross‐section elements at the ends of the rocking body to represent the rocking surfaces. The energy dissipation during rocking motion is modeled using a Hilber–Hughes–Taylor numerically dissipative time step integration scheme. The model is verified through correct prediction of the horizontal and vertical displacements of a rigid rocking block and validated against the analytical Housner model solution for the rocking response of rigid bodies subjected to ground motion excitation. The proposed model is augmented by a dissipative model of the ground under the rocking surface to facilitate modeling of the rocking response of deformable bodies and structures. The augmented model is used to compute the overturning and uplift rocking response spectra for a deformable rocking frame structure to symmetric and anti‐symmetric Ricker pulse ground motion excitation. It is found that the deformability of the columns of a rocking frame does not jeopardize its stability under Ricker pulse ground motion excitation. In fact, there are cases where a deformable rocking frame is more stable than its rigid counterpart. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary forest harvesting

Stream temperature is a key physical water‐quality parameter, controlling many biological, chemical, and physical processes in aquatic ecosystems. Maintenance of cool stream temperatures during summer is critical for high‐quality aquatic habitat. As such, transmission of warm water from small, nonfish‐bearing headwater streams after forest harvesting could cause warming in downstream fish‐bearing stream reaches with negative consequences. In this study, we evaluate (a) the effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature in small, headwater streams, (b) the transmission of thermal signals from headwater reaches after harvesting to downstream fish‐bearing reaches, and (c) the relative role of lithology and forest management practices in influencing differential thermal responses in both the headwater and downstream reaches. We measured summer stream temperatures both preharvest and postharvest at 29 sites—12 upstream sites (4 reference, 8 harvested) and 17 downstream sites (5 reference, 12 harvested)—across 3 paired watershed studies in western Oregon. The 7‐day moving average of daily maximum stream temperature (T_7DAYMAX) was greater during the postharvest period relative to the preharvest period at 7 of the 8 harvested upstream sites. Although the T_7DAYMAX was generally warmer in the downstream direction at most of the stream reaches during both the preharvest and postharvest period, there was no evidence for additional downstream warming related to the harvesting activity. Rather, the T_7DAYMAX cooled rapidly as stream water flowed into forested reaches ~370–1,420 m downstream of harvested areas. Finally, the magnitude of effects of contemporary forest management practices on stream temperature increased with the proportion of catchment underlain by more resistant lithology at both the headwater and downstream sites, reducing the potential for the cooling influence of groundwater.     

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.     

Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.     

Lagged rejuvenation of groundwater indicates internal flow structures and hydrological connectivity

Large proportions of rainwater and snowmelt infiltrate into the subsurface before contributing to stream flow and stream water quality. Subsurface flow dynamics steer the transport and transformation of contaminants, carbon, weathering products and other biogeochemistry. The distribution of groundwater ages with depth is a key feature of these flow dynamics. Predicting these ages are a strong test of hypotheses about subsurface structures and time-varying processes. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)-based groundwater ages revealed an unexpected groundwater age stratification in a 0.47 km² forested catchment called Svartberget in northern Sweden. An overall groundwater age stratification, representative for the Svartberget site, was derived by measuring CFCs from nine different wells with depths of 2–18 m close to the stream network. Immediately below the water table, CFC-based groundwater ages of already 30 years that increased with depth were found. Using complementary groundwater flow models, we could reproduce the observed groundwater age stratification and show that the 30 year lag in rejuvenation comes from return flow of groundwater at a subsurface discharge zone that evolves along the interface between two soil types. By comparing the observed groundwater age stratification with a simple analytical approximation, we show that the observed lag in rejuvenation can be a powerful indicator of the extent and structure of the subsurface discharge zone, while the vertical gradient of the age-depth-relationship can still be used as a proxy of the overall aquifer recharge even when sampled in the discharge zone. The single age stratification profile measured in the discharge zone, close to the aquifer outlet, can reveal the main structure of the groundwater flow pattern from recharge to discharge. This groundwater flow pattern provides information on the participation of groundwater in the hydrological cycle and indicates the lower boundary of hydrological connectivity.     

Hydraulic redistribution and hydrological controls on aspen transpiration and establishment in peatlands following wildfire

In the sub‐humid Western Boreal Plains of Alberta, where evapotranspiration often exceeds precipitation, trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) uplands often depend on adjacent peatlands for water supply through hydraulic redistribution. Wildfire is common in the Boreal Plains, so the resilience of the transfer of water from peatlands to uplands through roots immediately following wildfire may have implications for aspen succession. The objective of this research was to characterize post‐fire peatland‐upland hydraulic connectivity and assess controls on aspen transpiration (as a measure of stress and productivity) among landscape topographic positions. In May 2011, a wildfire affected 90,000 ha of north central Alberta, including the Utikuma Region Study Area (URSA). Portions of an URSA glacio‐fluval outwash lake catchment were burned, which included forests and a small peatland. Within 1 year after the fire, aspen were found to be growing in both the interior and margins of this peatland. Across recovering land units, transpiration varied along a topographic gradient of upland midslope (0.42 mm hr^?1) > upland hilltop (0.29 mm hr^?1) > margin (0.23 mm hr^?1) > peatland (0.10 mm hr^?1); similar trends were observed with leaf area and stem heights. Although volumetric water content was below field capacity, P. tremuloides were sustained through roots present, likely before fire, in peatland margins through hydraulic redistribution. Evidence for this was observed through the analysis of oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and hydrogen (δ²H) isotopes where upland xylem and peat core signatures were ?10.0‰ and ?117.8‰ and ?9.2‰ and ?114.0‰, respectively. This research highlights the potential importance of hydraulic redistribution to forest sustainability and recovery, in which the continued delivery of water may result in the encroachment of aspen into peatlands. As such, we suggest that through altering ecosystem services, peatland margins following fire may be at risk to aspen colonization during succession.     

Using multivariate statistical analysis of groundwater major cation and trace element concentrations to evaluate groundwater flow in a regional aquifer

Groundwater samples were collected from 11 springs in Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge in southern Nevada and seven springs from Death Valley National Park in eastern California. Concentrations of the major cations (Ca, Mg, Na and K) and 45 trace elements were determined in these groundwater samples. The resultant data were subjected to evaluation via the multivariate statistical technique principal components analysis (PCA), to investigate the chemical relationships between the Ash Meadows and Death Valley spring waters, to evaluate whether the results of the PCA support those of previous hydrogeological and isotopic studies and to determine if PCA can be used to help delineate potential groundwater flow patterns based on the chemical compositions of groundwaters. The results of the PCA indicated that groundwaters from the regional Paleozoic carbonate aquifers (all of the Ash Meadows springs and four springs from the Furnace Creek region of Death Valley) exhibited strong statistical associations, whereas other Death Valley groundwaters were chemically different. The results of the PCA support earlier studies, where potentiometric head levels, δ¹⁸O and δD, geological relationships and rare earth element data were used to evaluate groundwater flow, which suggest groundwater flows from Ash Meadows to the Furnace Creek springs in Death Valley. The PCA suggests that Furnace Creek groundwaters are moderately concentrated Ash Meadows groundwater, reflecting longer aquifer residence times for the Furnace Creek groundwaters. Moreover, PCA indicates that groundwater may flow from springs in the region surrounding Scotty's Castle in Death Valley National Park, to a spring discharging on the valley floor. The study indicates that PCA may provide rapid and relatively cost‐effective methods to assess possible groundwater flow regimes in systems that have not been previously investigated. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.