Applying Bayesian belief networks to health risk assessment

The health risk of noncarcinogenic substances is usually represented by the hazard quotient (HQ) or target organ-specific hazard index (TOSHI). However, three problems arise from these indicators. Firstly, the HQ overestimates the health risk of noncarcinogenic substances for non-critical organs. Secondly, the TOSHI makes inappropriately the additive assumption for multiple hazardous substances affecting the same organ. Thirdly, uncertainty of the TOSHI undermines the accuracy of risk characterization. To address these issues, this article proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) for health risk assessment (HRA) and the procedure involved is developed using the example of road constructions. According to epidemiological studies and using actual hospital attendance records, the BBN-HRA can specifically identify the probabilistic relationship between an air pollutant and each of its induced disease, which can overcome the overestimation of the HQ for non-critical organs. A fusion technique of conditional probabilities in the BBN-HRA is devised to avoid the unrealistic additive assumption. The use of the BBN-HRA is easy even for those without HRA knowledge. The input of pollution concentrations into the model will bring more concrete information on the morbidity and mortality rates of all the related diseases rather than a single score, which can reduce the uncertainty of the TOSHI.     

Fracturing and fluid‐flow during post‐rift subsidence in carbonates of the Jandaíra Formation,Potiguar Basin,NE Brazil

Pervasive fracture networks are common in many reservoir‐scale carbonate bodies even in the absence of large deformation and exert a major impact on their mechanical and flow behaviour. The Upper Cretaceous Jandaíra Formation is a few hundred meters thick succession of shallow water carbonates deposited during the early post‐rift stage of the Potiguar rift (NE Brazil). The Jandaíra Formation in the present onshore domain experienced <1.5 km thermal subsidence and, following Tertiary exhumation, forms outcrops over an area of >1000 km². The carbonates have a gentle, <5?, dip to the NE and are affected by few regional, low displacement faults or folds. Despite their simple tectonic history, carbonates display ubiquitous open fractures, sub‐vertical veins, and sub‐vertical as well as sub‐horizontal stylolites. Combining structural analysis, drone imaging, isotope studies and mathematical modelling, we reconstruct the fracturing history of the Jandaíra Formation during and following subsidence and analyse the impact fractures had on coeval fluid flow. We find that Jandaíra carbonates, fully cemented after early diagenesis, experienced negligible deformation during the first few hundreds of meters of subsidence but were pervasively fractured when they reached depths >400–500 m. Deformation was accommodated by a dense network of sub‐vertical mode I and hybrid fractures associated with sub‐vertical stylolites developed in a stress field characterised by a sub‐horizontal σ₁ and sub‐vertical σ₂. The development of a network of hybrid fractures, rarely reported in the literature, activated the circulation of waters charged in the mountainous region, flowing along the porous Açu sandstone underlying the Jandaíra carbonates and rising to the surface through the fractured carbonates. With persisting subsidence, carbonates reached depths of 800–900 m entering a depth interval characterised by a sub‐vertical σ₁. At this stage, sub‐horizontal stylolites developed liberating calcite which sealed the sub‐vertical open fractures transforming them in veins and preventing further flow. During Tertiary exhumation, several of the pre‐existing veins and stylolites opened and became longer, and new fractures were created typically with the same directions of the older features. The simplicity of our model suggests that most rocks in passive margin settings might have followed a similar evolution and thus display similar structures.     

A numerical investigation of the destruction of peroxy radical by Cu ion catalysed reactions on atmospheric particles

To determine if Cu mediated reactions on atmospheric particles are important to HO₂ chemistry in the ambient atmosphere, Cu molalities were calculated from measured Cu aerosol particle concentrations, mass and number size distribution data from a site in central Sweden. A comparison of characteristic times indicates that at low relative humidities the reaction is limited by the mass transport of gas phase HO₂ to the particle surface and not by the chemical kinetics of the aqueous reaction. Comparison of half-lives for particle reactions and the gas phase destruction of HO₂ to form H₂O₂ indicate that heterogeneous reactions on aerosol particles may have important consequences on the chemistry of HO₂ and H₂O₂ in the troposphere.     

Melting of clinopyroxene + magnesite in iron-bearing planetary mantles and implications for the Earth and Mars

The assemblage clinopyroxene + magnesite was observed in Earth’s high-pressure metamorphic samples, and its stability in subducting slabs was confirmed by experiments. Recent studies also suggested that the fO₂ variations observed in SNC meteorites can be explained by polybaric graphite-CO-CO₂ equilibria in the Martian mantle. Although there is no direct evidence for the stability of the cpx + mc assemblage in Mars mantle, its high-pressure–high-temperature decomposition to cpx + fo + CO₂ makes it a good analogue for the source of carbon metasomatism, in particular, to study nakhlites formation. Iron, which is present in the Earth’s and Martian mantles, may, however, influence the speciation of carbon. We performed experiments on a clinopyroxene + magnesite assemblage at 1.8 and 3.0 GPa and temperatures corresponding to the Earth’s and Martian mantles. The role of iron and of fO₂ was investigated by (1) replacing all or part of the magnesite by siderite FeCO₃, (2) adding Fe⁰ and (3) using graphite C capsules. A carbonate-silicate melt forms at both Earth and Mars conditions. Clinopyroxene and olivine are the main solid phases in the iron-free experiments. Fe²⁺ and Fe⁰ decrease their melting temperatures and increase the silicate fraction in the melt. The produced carbonate-silicate melts may be involved in the formation of some carbon-rich lavas on Earth (e.g., carbonatites, ultramafic lamprophyres, or kamafugites). Our results may also be used to interpret ophiolite samples or inclusions. In particular, we show that wüstite may form in equilibrium with carbonate-silicate melt in opx-(and silica-) poor regions of the mantle below 3 GPa. Our results also confirm the hypothesis of carbon metasomatism in the Martian nakhlites source. Immiscibility or reduction could explain the absence or rarity of C in Martian lavas.     

Ion microprobe measurements of O/O ratios of phosphate minerals in the Martian meteorites ALH84001 and Los Angeles

Oxygen isotope ratios of merrillite and chlorapatite in the Martian meteorites ALH84001 and Los Angeles have been measured by ion microprobe in multicollector mode. δ¹⁸O values of phosphate minerals measured in situ range from ∼3 to 6‰, and are similar to Martian meteorite whole-rock values, as well as the δ¹⁸O of igneous phosphate on Earth. These results suggest that the primary, abiotic, igneous phosphate reservoir on Mars is similar in oxygen isotopic composition to the basaltic phosphate reservoir on Earth. This is an important first step in the characterization of Martian phosphate reservoirs for the use of δ¹⁸O of phosphate minerals as a biomarker for life on Mars. Cumulative textural, major-element, and isotopic evidence presented here suggest a primary, igneous origin for the phosphates in Los Angeles and ALH84001; textural and chemical evidence suggests that phosphates in ALH84001 were subsequently shock-melted in a later event.     

Surface Energy Balance Measurements Above an Exurban Residential Neighbourhood of Kansas City,Missouri

Previous measurements of urban energy balances generally have been limited to densely built, central city sites and older suburban locations with mature tree canopies that are higher than the height of the buildings. In contrast, few data are available for the extensive, open vegetated types typical of low-density residential areas that have been newly converted from rural land use. We made direct measurements of surface energy fluxes using the eddy-covariance technique at Greenwood, a recently developed exurban neighbourhood near Kansas City, Missouri, USA, during an intensive field campaign in August 2004. Energy partitioning was dominated by the latent heat flux under both cloudy and near clear-sky conditions. The mean daytime Bowen ratio (β) values were 0.46, 0.48, and 0.47 respectively for the cloudy, near clear-sky and all-sky conditions. Net radiation (R _n ) increased rapidly from dawn (−34 and −58W m⁻²) during the night to reach a maximum (423 and 630W m⁻²) after midday for cloudy and near clear-sky conditions respectively. Mean daytime values were 253 and 370W m⁻², respectively for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, while mean daily values were 114 for cloudy and 171W m⁻² for near clear-sky conditions, respectively. Midday surface albedo values were 0.25 and 0.24 for the cloudy and near clear-sky conditions, respectively. The site exhibited an angular dependence on the solar elevation angle, in contrast to previous observations over urban and suburban areas, but similar to vegetated surfaces. The latent heat flux (Q _E ), sensible heat flux (Q _H ), and the residual heat storage ΔQ _s terms accounted for between 46–58%, 21–23%, and 18–31% of R _n , respectively, for all-sky conditions and time averages. The observed albedo, R _n , and Q _E values are higher than the values that have been reported for suburban areas with high summer evapotranspiration rates in North America. These results suggest that the rapidly growing residential areas at the exurban fringe of large metropolitan areas have a surface energy balance that is more similar to the rural areas from which they were developed than it is to the older suburbs and city centres that make up the urban fabric to which they are being joined.     

Comprehensive simulation of the middle atmospheric climate: some recent results

This study discusses the results of comprehensive time-dependent, three-dimensional numerical modelling of the circulation in the middle atmosphere obtained with the GFDL SKYHI troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere general circulation model (GCM). The climate in a long control simulation with an intermediate resolution version (3° in horizontal) is briefly reviewed. While many aspects of the simulation are quite realistic, the focus in this study is on remaining first-order problems with the modelled middle atmospheric general circulation, notably the very cold high latitude temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter/spring, and the virtual absence of a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere. These problems are shared by other extant GCMs. It was noted that the SH cold pole problem is somewhat ameliorated with increasing horizontal resolution in the model. This suggests that improved resolution increases the vertical momentum fluxes from the explicitly resolved gravity waves in the model, a point confirmed by detailed analysis of the spectrum of vertical eddy momentum flux in the winter SH extratropics. This result inspired a series of experiments with the 3° SKYHI model modified by adding a prescribed zonally-symmetric zonal drag on the SH winter westerlies. The form of the imposed momentum source was based on the simple assumption that the mean flow drag produced by unresolved waves has a spatial distribution similar to that of the Eliassen-Palm flux divergence associated with explicitly resolved gravity waves. It was found that an appropriately-chosen drag confined to the top six model levels (above 0.35 mb) can lead to quite realistic simulations of the SH winter flow (including even the stationary wave fields) through August, but that problems still remain in the late-winter/springtime simulation. While the imposed momentum source was largely confined to the extratropics, it produced considerable improvement in the simulation of the equatorial semiannual oscillation, with both the easterly and westerly phases being somewhat more intense than in the control simulation. A separate experiment was conducted in which the SKYHI model was simplified so that it had no topography and so that the seasonal cycle was frozen in perpetual equinox conditions. These changes result in a model that has much reduced interhemispheric asymmetry. This model spontaneously produces a long period mean flow oscillation of considerable amplitude in the tropical upper stratopause. The implication of this result for the general issue of obtaining a QBO in comprehensive GCMs is discussed.     

Metal island growth and dynamics on molybdenite surfaces

In order to understand the adsorption mechanism of metal atoms to semiconducting surfaces, we have studied, as a model system, the vapor phase adsorption of Ag, Au, and Cu on the (001) surface of molybdenite (MoS₂) and the subsequent surface diffusion of these adsorbates. Our scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) images show that, depending on the type of metal atom that is adsorbed, islands of a characteristic size (2 nm for Ag, 8 to 10 nm for Cu, two distinct sizes of 2 nm and 8 to 10 nm for Au), shape (well rounded in the lateral extension) and thickness (one monolayer for Ag, 1 to 1.5 nm for Cu) are formed during the initial stages of deposition. Whole islands are observed to surface diffuse without loss of size or shape. Despite the relatively large size of the copper islands on molybdenite, these islands surface diffuse extensively, suggesting that the Cu-S interaction is weak. Surface diffusion is only hindered once individual islands start to coalesce. As copper islands accumulate, the size and shape of the original islands can still be recognized, supporting the conclusion that these characteristics are constant and that monolayer growth occurs by the aggregation of islands across the surface.The strength and the nature of the Ag-S(MoS₂) bond were further investigated by using molecular orbital calculations, ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopy (UPS) and scanning tunneling spectroscopy (STS). By applying quantum mechanical approaches using a two-dimensional periodic molybdenite slab and hexagonal MoS₂ clusters of different sizes with metal atoms adsorbed to them, it is possible to calculate the electron transfer between the mineral surface and the metal atom as well as the adsorption energy as a function of surface coverage. In addition, we used the results from the quantum mechanical runs to derive empirical potentials that model the characteristics of the forces within the crystal, within the adsorbed islands, and the metal and mineral surface. The combination of quantum mechanical calculations and empirical force field calculations explain the electronic structure and the highest stability of Ag islands that have seven atoms in diameter, which exactly agrees with the size of experimentally observed islands. UPS results also suggest that a specific new state is formed (approximately 4.5 eV into the valence band) which may describe the Ag-S bond because it does not occur in pure silver or molybdenite.This study shows how the combination of microscopic (STM), spectroscopic (STS, UPS), compositional (X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, XPS) and molecular modeling (quantum mechanical and empirical) techniques is a useful approach to understand the nature of the metal to sulfide bond. Further insights may be gained concerning the natural association of certain metals with sulfides.     

Estimation of hysteretic energy demand using concepts of modal pushover analysis

Hysteretic energy dissipation in a structure during an earthquake is the key factor, besides maximum displacement, related to the amount of damage in it. This energy demand can be accurately computed only through a nonlinear time‐history analysis of the structure subjected to a specific earthquake ground acceleration. However, for multi‐story structures, which are usually modeled as multi‐degree of freedom (MDOF) systems, this analysis becomes computation intensive and time consuming and is not suitable for adopting in seismic design guidelines. An alternative method of estimating hysteretic energy demand on MDOF systems is presented here. The proposed method uses multiple ‘generalized’ or ‘equivalent’ single degree of freedom (ESDOF) systems to estimate hysteretic energy demand on an MDOF system within the context of a ‘modal pushover analysis’. This is a modified version of a previous procedure using a single ESDOF system. Efficiency of the proposed procedure is tested by comparing energy demands based on this method with results from nonlinear dynamic analyses of MDOF systems, as well as estimates based on the previous method, for several ground motion scenarios. Three steel moment frame structures, of 3‐, 9‐, and 20‐story configurations, are selected for this comparison. Bias statistics that show the effectiveness of the proposed method are presented. In addition to being less demanding on the computation time and complexity, the proposed method is also suitable for adopting in design guidelines, as it can use response spectra for hysteretic energy demand estimation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.