Phase-equilibrium geobarometers for silicic rocks based on rhyolite-MELTS. Part 4: Plagioclase,orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene,glass geobarometer,and application to Mt. Ruapehu,New Zealand

A new phase equilibria geobarometer determines magmatic storage and crystallization conditions, including pressure, temperature, oxygen fugacity (\({f_{{{\text{o}}_2}}}\)), and the presence of a fluid phase for glass-bearing rocks containing the assemblage plagioclase?+?pyroxene(s). This newly developed geobarometer can better constrain crystallization conditions of shallow (<?500 MPa; <~?20 km), glass-bearing andesites to dacites. The geobarometer utilizes rhyolite-MELTS to determine crystallization conditions in natural pumice and scoria samples. The validity of the geobarometer is tested by comparing it to results from experiments. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. We apply the geobarometer to the plag?+?opx?+?cpx-bearing system of Mt. Ruapehu, in the southern Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand. The samples from Mt. Ruapehu are tested from ~?5 to ~?400 MPa and from super-liquidus to 90% crystalline (~ 1200 to ~ 700 °C). Mt. Ruapehu serves as a methodological testing ground for the geobarometer, and results from our geobarometer agree with recent Mt. Ruapehu studies. Results show a distribution of crystallization pressures ranging from 50 to 150 MPa (~?2.0 to 5.9 km) for different eruptions, with modes of 110 MPa (~ 4.3 km) and 130 MPa (~ 5.1 km). These are consistent with field interpretations of different eruptive styles based on juvenile clast textures and previous knowledge of the magma plumbing system. Mt. Ruapehu magmas are fluid saturated, with \({f_{{{\text{o}}_2}}}\) of ΔQFM ~ + 1 (NNO).     

Crystal nucleation and growth produced by continuous decompression of Pinatubo magma

High-temperature decompression experiments demonstrate that crystal textures preserve a record of the style and rate of magmatic ascent. To reinforce this link, we performed a suite of isothermal decompression experiments using starting material from the climactic 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We decompressed experiments from 220 MPa to final, quench pressures of 75 or 30 MPa using continuous decompression rates of 100, 30, 10, 3, 1, and 0.3 MPa h^?1. Amphibole, clinopyroxene, and plagioclase crystallized during the experiments, with plagioclase microlites dominating the assemblage. Total microlite number densities range from 10^7.6±0.4 up to 10^8.2±0.2 cm^?3, with plagioclase accounting for up to 65% of the total number. Plagioclase microlite area increased systematically from 19?±?8 to 937?±?487 µm² with increasing experiment duration. Our textures provide time-integrated records of crystal kinetics. Average nucleation and areal growth rates of plagioclase are highest in the fastest decompressions (~?10^7.5 cm^?3 h^?1 and 10.1?±?4.1 µm² h^?1, respectively) and more than an order of magnitude lower in the slowest experiments (~?10^5.5 cm^?3 h^?1 and 0.8?±?0.2 µm² h^?1, respectively). Both nucleation and growth rates are highest at high degrees of disequilibrium. We find that peak supersaturation-dependent instantaneous rates are generally more than an order of magnitude faster than average rates. We use those instantaneous nucleation and growth rates to introduce an iterative model to evaluate the effects of different decompression rates, decompression paths (continuous, single-step or multistep), and the presence of phenocrysts on final crystallinity and microlite size distribution.     

Zoning and exsolution in alkali feldspars from Laacher See volcano (Western Germany): constraints on temperature history prior to eruption

Compositional zoning and exsolution patterns of alkali feldspars in carbonatite-bearing cognate syenites from the 6.3 km³ (D.R.E) phonolitic Laacher See Tephra (LST) deposit in western Germany (12.9 ka) are reported. These rocks represent the cooler outer portion and crystal-rich products of a cooling magma reservoir at upper crustal levels. Major and trace-element difference between cores and rims in sanidine crystals represent two generations of crystal growth separated by unmixing of a carbonate melt. Trace-element differences measured by LA–ICP–MS are in accordance with silicate–carbonate unmixing. Across the core–rim boundary, we extracted gray-scale profiles from multiple accumulations of back-scattered electron images. Gray scales directly represent K/Na ratios owing to low concentrations of Ba and Sr (<?30 ppm). Diffusion gradients are modeled to solve for temperature using known pre-eruptive U–Th zircon ages (0–20 ky) of each sample (Schmitt et al., J Petrol 51:1053–1085, 2010). Estimated temperatures range from 630 °C to 670 °C. For the exsolution boundaries, a diffusive homogenization model is constrained by the solvus temperature of ~ 712^_725 °C and gives short time scales of only 15–50 days. Based on our results, we present a model for the temperature–time history of these rocks. The model also constrains the thermal variation across the cooling crystal-rich carapace of the magma reservoir over 20 ka and suggests a thermal reactivation of cumulates, the cooling carapace, and probably the entire system only a few years prior to the explosive eruption of the remaining molten core of the phonolitic magma reservoir.     

The accuracy of standard enthalpies and entropies for phases of petrological interest derived from density-functional calculations

The internal energies and entropies of 21 well-known minerals were calculated using the density functional theory (DFT), viz. kyanite, sillimanite, andalusite, albite, microcline, forsterite, fayalite, diopside, jadeite, hedenbergite, pyrope, grossular, talc, pyrophyllite, phlogopite, annite, muscovite, brucite, portlandite, tremolite, and CaTiO₃–perovskite. These thermodynamic quantities were then transformed into standard enthalpies of formation from the elements and standard entropies enabling a direct comparison with tabulated values. The deviations from reference enthalpy and entropy values are in the order of several kJ/mol and several J/mol/K, respectively, from which the former is more relevant. In the case of phase transitions, the DFT-computed thermodynamic data of involved phases turned out to be accurate and using them in phase diagram calculations yields reasonable results. This is shown for the Al₂SiO₅ polymorphs. The DFT-based phase boundaries are comparable to those derived from internally consistent thermodynamic data sets. They even suggest an improvement, because they agree with petrological observations concerning the coexistence of kyanite?+?quartz?+?corundum in high-grade metamorphic rocks, which are not reproduced correctly using internally consistent data sets. The DFT-derived thermodynamic data are also accurate enough for computing the P–T positions of reactions that are characterized by relatively large reaction enthalpies (>?100 kJ/mol), i.e., dehydration reactions. For reactions with small reaction enthalpies (a few kJ/mol), the DFT errors are too large. They, however, are still far better than enthalpy and entropy values obtained from estimation methods.     

Satellite estimates and subpixel variability of rainfall in a semi-arid grassland

卫星估雨精度的不确定性受到当地降雨类型和像元内降雨非均匀性影响,而结合这两个关键因素开展半干旱草原卫星估雨的研究有限.2009年夏,我们在中国锡林郭勒半干旱草原用多部微雨雷达和雨量计构建了9 km卫星像元降雨观测网,观测了像元内降雨非均匀性(空间变异系数CV),并评估了卫星估雨精度.结果表明:(1)CV值受像元内平均降雨量,降雨类型,降雨云面积及移向等影响,如高Cv值的降雨过程大多为平均降雨量小,对流性降雨过程,降雨云边缘像元CV值较高;(2)TRMM 3B42V7卫星估雨产品适用性较好,CMORPH和PERSIANN次之,但TRMM 3B42V7易在半干旱草原湖泊处高估降雨.     

Carbon costs and benefits of France’s biomass energy production targets

Background

Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.

Results

All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.

Conclusions

No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.

     

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

Reducing wind power curtailment in China: comparing the roles of coal power flexibility and improved dispatch

Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.

Key policy insights

• China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.

• China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.

• A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.

• China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.

     

High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers

Climatic Change - This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over...