Long-Term Changes in the Extreme Significant Wave Heights on the Western North Pacific: Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Activity and ENSO

Seasonal extreme wave statistics were reproduced by using the 25-km-grid global wave model of WAVEWATCH-III. The results showed that the simulated wave dataset for the present climate (1979-2009) was similar to Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wave data. Statistics such as the root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin were 0.5 m and 0.69 over the analysis domain. The largest trends and standard deviation were around the southern coast of Japan and western edge of the WNP. Linear regression analysis was employed to identify the relationship between the leading principal components (PCs) of significant wave heights (SWHs) in the peak season of July to September and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The results indicated that the inter-annual variability of SWH can be associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the peak season. The CC between the first PC of the SWH and anomalies in the Nino 3.4 SST index was also significant at a 99% confidence level. Significant variations in the SWH are affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by increased SST anomalies. The genesis and development of simulated TCs can be important to the variation in SWHs for the WNP in the peak season. Therefore, we can project the variability of SWHs through TC activity based on changes in SST conditions for the equatorial Pacific in the future.     

Impact of satellite observed microwave SST on the simulation of tropical cyclones

The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold’s SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold’s and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold’s SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity prediction when compared to that using Reynold’s SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold’s SST improved cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean.     

Respiration of Recently-Fixed Plant Carbon Dominates Mid-Winter Ecosystem CO2 Production in Sub-Arctic Heath Tundra

Arctic ecosystems could provide a substantial positive feedback to global climate change if warming stimulates below-ground CO₂ release by enhancing decomposition of bulk soil organic matter reserves.Ecosystem respiration during winter is important in this context because CO₂ release from snow-covered tundra soils is a substantial component of annual net carbon (C) balance, and because global climate models predict that the most rapid rises in regional air temperature will occur in the Arctic during winter. In this manipulative field study, the relative contributions of plant and bulk soil organic matter C pools to ecosystem CO₂ production in mid-winter were investigated. We measured CO₂ efflux rates in Swedish sub-arctic heath tundra from control plots and from plots that had been clipped in the previous growing season to disrupt plant activity. Respiration derived from recently-fixed plant C (i.e., plant respiration, and respiration associated with rhizosphere exudates and decomposition of fresh litter) was the principal source of CO₂ efflux, while respiration associated with decomposition of bulk soil organic matter was low, and appeared relatively insensitive to temperature. These results suggest that warmer mid-winter temperatures in the Arctic may have a much greater impact on the cycling of recently-fixed, plant-associated C pools than on the depletion of tundra bulk soil C reserves, and consequently that there is a low potential for significant initial feedbacks from arctic ecosystems to climate change during mid-winter.     

Conventions on thermal expansion modelling of radio telescopes for geodetic and astrometric VLBI

Thermal expansion of radio telescopes has long been recognized as an effect which cannot be neglected in geodetic and astrometric VLBI data analysis if millimeter accuracy is desired. In this article, the author documents the conventions which are being set by the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) for a consistent modelling of this effect in its routine product generation. For the largest telescopes, the annual cycle of thermal expansion may change the height of the VLBI reference point by as much as 20 mm. However, for telescopes which are used in present-day IVS operations, the variations rather range from 4 to 6 mm.     

Recovery of groundwater in the Sanriku region contaminated by the tsunami inundation from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

Many wells in the Sanriku region used as sources for water supply systems were heavily contaminated by the tsunami of the 2011 great Tohoku earthquake on March 11 in 2011. To better understand the nature of the groundwater contamination by the tsunami inundation and to clarify the recovery process of contaminated groundwater at the study wells, groundwater monitoring has been conducted once or twice yearly since early summer in 2011. High and abnormal values of electric conductivity (EC), chloride ion concentration (CIC), Na⁺, Ca⁺, heavy metal ions, and heavier isotopes of the contaminated groundwater were also obtained in April and June 2011. The chemical elements have rapidly and exponentially decreased as a result of effective pumping of the contaminated groundwater from the study wells and because of abundant rainfall in 2011. In April 2015 (about 4 years after the tsunami inundation), the CIC and EC of the contaminated groundwater of two study wells in Minamisanriku town had reached pre-inundation values. The estimated residence times of groundwater of the two study wells were 105–118 days in the full-day pumping stage and 910–1000 days in the daytime-only pumping stage.     

Evaluation of site effects on ground motions based on equivalent linear site response analysis and liquefaction potential in Chennai,south India

We study local site effects with detailed geotechnical and geophysical site characterization to evaluate the site-specific seismic hazard for the seismic microzonation of the Chennai city in South India. A Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) of magnitude 6.0 is considered based on the available seismotectonic and geological information of the study area. We synthesized strong ground motion records for this target event using stochastic finite-fault technique, based on a dynamic corner frequency approach, at different sites in the city, with the model parameters for the source, site, and path (attenuation) most appropriately selected for this region. We tested the influence of several model parameters on the characteristics of ground motion through simulations and found that stress drop largely influences both the amplitude and frequency of ground motion. To minimize its influence, we estimated stress drop after finite bandwidth correction, as expected from an M6 earthquake in Indian peninsula shield for accurately predicting the level of ground motion. Estimates of shear wave velocity averaged over the top 30 m of soil (V_S30) are obtained from multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) at 210 sites at depths of 30 to 60 m below the ground surface. Using these V_S30 values, along with the available geotechnical information and synthetic ground motion database obtained, equivalent linear one-dimensional site response analysis that approximates the nonlinear soil behavior within the linear analysis framework was performed using the computer program SHAKE2000. Fundamental natural frequency, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at surface and rock levels, response spectrum at surface level for different damping coefficients, and amplification factors are presented at different sites of the city. Liquefaction study was done based on the V_S30 and PGA values obtained. The major findings suggest show that the northeast part of the city is characterized by (i) low V_S30 values (<?200 m/s) associated with alluvial deposits, (ii) relatively high PGA value, at the surface, of about 0.24 g, and (iii) factor of safety and liquefaction below unity at three sites (no. 12, no. 37, and no. 70). Thus, this part of the city is expected to experience damage for the expected M6 target event.     

Experimental study of headcut erosion in cohesive soils under different consolidation types and hydraulic parameters

Headcut is a change in stream channel elevation, where there is concentrated flow. Most of the past studies focus on non-cohesive soils, although many problems on the streams occur because of cohesive beds and banks. In this study, eight samples of cohesive soils, with a different composition of silt and clay, for different waterfall heights and flow velocity under long- and short-term natural consolidation conditions were tested. In one of the tests, a sand layer was settled on the headcut bed to investigate its impact on headcut erosion. By increasing clay content, the headcut will remain vertical as it moves backward. Result showed that the effect of clay content reduction was more noticeable under the long-term consolidation condition. In general, the effect of clay percentage variation on the measured parameters is much higher than the effects of waterfall height or flow velocity, and the effect of consolidation type and adding a sand layer on the measured values is much higher than the effect of clay percentage variation on the waterfall height and flow velocity.     

Seasonal variation of volatile organic iodine compounds in the water column of Funka Bay,Hokkaido, Japan

Volatile organic iodine compounds (VOIs) emitted from the ocean surface to the air play an important role in atmospheric chemistry. Shipboard observations were conducted in Funka Bay, Hokkaido, Japan, bimonthly or monthly from March 2012 to December 2014, to elucidate the seasonal variations of VOI concentrations in seawater and their sea-to-air iodine fluxes. The bay water exchanges with the open ocean water of the North Pacific twice a year (early spring and autumn). Vertical profiles of CH₂I₂, CH₂ClI, CH₃I, and C₂H₅I concentrations in the bay water were measured bimonthly or monthly within an identified water mass. The VOI concentrations began to increase after early April at the end of the diatom spring bloom, and represented substantial peaks in June or July. The temporal variation of the C₂H₅I profile, which showed a distinct peak in the bottom layer from April to July, was similar to the PO₄ ^3? variation profile. Correlation between C₂H₅I and PO₄ ^3? concentrations (r = 0.93) suggests that C₂H₅I production was associated with degradation of organic matter deposited on the bottom after the spring bloom. CH₂I₂ and CH₂ClI concentrations increased substantially in the surface and subsurface layers (0–60 m) in June or July resulted in a clear seasonal variation of the sea-to-air iodine flux of the VOIs (high in summer or autumn and low in spring).     

Shortwave cloud radiative forcing on major stratus cloud regions in AMIP-type simulations of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Cloud and its radiative effects are major sources of uncertainty that lead to simulation discrepancies in climate models. In this study, shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF) over major stratus regions is evaluated for Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations of models involved in the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Over stratus regions, large deviations in both climatological mean and seasonal cycle of SWCF are found among the models. An ambient field sorted by dynamic (vertical motion) and thermodynamic (inversion strength or stability) regimes is constructed and used to measure the response of SWCF to large-scale controls. In marine boundary layer regions, despite both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models being able to capture well the center and range of occurrence frequency for the ambient field, most of the models fail to simulate the dependence of SWCF on boundary layer inversion and the insensitivity of SWCF to vertical motion. For eastern China, there are large differences even in the simulated ambient fields. Moreover, almost no model can reproduce intense SWCF in rising motion and high stability regimes. It is also found that models with a finer grid resolution have no evident superiority than their lower resolution versions. The uncertainties relating to SWCF in state-of-the-art models may limit their performance in IPCC experiments.     

Natural background levels and threshold values for groundwater in fluvial Pleistocene and Tertiary marine aquifers in Flanders,Belgium

Aquifers from the same typology can have strongly different groundwater chemistry. Deducing the groundwater quality of less well-characterized aquifers from well-documented aquifers belonging to the same typology should be done with great reserve, and can only be considered as a preliminary approach. In the EU’s 6th FP BRIDGE project “Background cRiteria for the IDentification of Groundwater thrEsholds”, a methodology for the derivation of threshold values (TV) for groundwater bodies is proposed. This methodology is tested on four aquifers in Flanders of the sand and gravel typology. The methodology works well for all but the Ledo-Paniselian aquifer, where the subdivision into a fresh and saline part is disproved, as a gradual natural transition from fresh to saline conditions in the aquifer is observed. The 90 percentile is proposed as natural background level (NBL) for the unconfined Pleistocene deposits, ascribing the outliers to possible influence of pollution. For the Tertiary aquifers, high values for different parameters have a natural origin and the 97.7 percentile is preferred as NBL. The methodology leads to high TVs for parameters presenting low NBL, when compared to the standard used as a reference. This would allow for substantial anthropogenic inputs of these parameters.