A conceptual model of avalanche hazard

This conceptual model of avalanche hazard identifies the key components of avalanche hazard and structures them into a systematic, consistent workflow for hazard and risk assessments. The method is applicable to all types of avalanche forecasting operations, and the underlying principles can be applied at any scale in space or time. The concept of an avalanche problem is introduced, describing how different types of avalanche problems directly influence the assessment and management of the risk. Four sequential questions are shown to structure the assessment of avalanche hazard, namely: (1) What type of avalanche problem(s) exists? (2) Where are these problems located in the terrain? (3) How likely is it that an avalanche will occur? and (4) How big will the avalanche be? Our objective was to develop an underpinning for qualitative hazard and risk assessments and address this knowledge gap in the avalanche forecasting literature. We used judgmental decomposition to elicit the avalanche forecasting process from forecasters and then described it within a risk-based framework that is consistent with other natural hazards disciplines.     

Functional and Compositional Responses of Periphyton Mats to Simulated Saltwater Intrusion in the Southern Everglades

Periphyton plays key ecological roles in karstic, freshwater wetlands and is extremely sensitive to environmental change making it a powerful tool to detect saltwater intrusion into these vulnerable and valuable ecosystems. We conducted field mesocosm experiments in the Florida Everglades, USA to test the effects of saltwater intrusion on periphyton metabolism, nutrient content, and diatom species composition, and how these responses differ between mats from a freshwater versus a brackish marsh. Pulsed saltwater intrusion was simulated by dosing treatment chambers monthly with a brine solution for 15 months; control chambers were simultaneously dosed with site water. Periphyton from the freshwater marsh responded to a 1-ppt increase in surface water salinity with reduced productivity and decreased concentrations of total carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. These functional responses were accompanied by significant shifts in periphytic diatom assemblages. Periphyton mats at the brackish marsh were more functionally resilient to the saltwater treatment (~?2 ppt above ambient), but nonetheless experienced significant shifts in diatom composition. These findings suggest that freshwater periphyton is negatively affected by small, short-term increases in salinity and that periphytic diatom assemblages, particularly at the brackish marsh, are a better metric of salinity increases compared with periphyton functional metrics due to functional redundancy. This research provides new and valuable information regarding periphyton dynamics in response to changing water sources in the southern Everglades that will allow us to extend the use of periphyton, and their diatom assemblages, as tools for environmental assessments related to saltwater intrusion.     

Regulation of peatland evaporation following wildfire; the complex control of soil tension under dynamic evaporation demand

The capability of peatland ecosystems to regulate evapotranspiration (ET) following wildfire is a key control on the resilience of their globally important carbon stocks under future climatic conditions. Evaporation dominates post-fire ET, with canopy and sub-canopy removal restricting transpiration and increasing evaporation potential. Therefore, in order to project the hydrology and associated stability of peatlands to a diverse range of post-fire weather conditions and future climates the regulation of evaporation must be accurately parameterised in peatland ecohydrological models. To achieve this, we measure the surface resistance (r_s) to evaporation over the growing season one year post-fire within four zones of a boreal peatland that burned to differing depths, relating r_s to near surface soil tensions. We show that the magnitude and temporal variability in r_s varies with burn severity. At the peatland scale, r_s and near-surface tension correlates non-linearly. However, at the point scale no relationship was evident between temporal variations in r_s and near-surface tension across all burn severities; in part due to the limited fluctuation in near-surface tensions and the precision of r_s measurements. Where automated measurements enabled averaging of errors, the relationship between near-surface tension and r_s switched between periods of strong and weak correlation within a burned peat hummock. This relationship, when strong, deviated from that obtained under steady state laboratory conditions; increases in r_s were more sensitive to fluctuations in near-surface tension under dynamic field conditions. Calculating soil vapour densities directly from near-surface tensions is shown to require calibration between peat types and provides little if any benefit beyond the derivation of empirical relationships between r_s and measured soil tension. Thus, we demonstrate important spatiotemporal fluctuations in post-fire r_s that will be key to regulating post-fire peatland hydrology, but highlight the complex challenges in effectively parameterising this important underlying control of near-surface tensions within hydrological simulations.     

Sample preparation methods for quantitative detection of DNA by molecular assays and marine biosensors

The need for quantitative molecular methods is growing in environmental, food, and medical fields but is hindered by low and variable DNA extraction and by co-extraction of PCR inhibitors. DNA extracts from Enterococcus faecium, seawater, and seawater spiked with E. faecium and Vibrio parahaemolyticus were tested by qPCR for target recovery and inhibition. Conventional and novel methods were tested, including Synchronous Coefficient of Drag Alteration (SCODA) and lysis and purification systems used on an automated genetic sensor (the Environmental Sample Processor, ESP). Variable qPCR target recovery and inhibition were measured, significantly affecting target quantification. An aggressive lysis method that utilized chemical, enzymatic, and mechanical disruption enhanced target recovery compared to commercial kit protocols. SCODA purification did not show marked improvement over commercial spin columns. Overall, data suggested a general need to improve sample preparation and to accurately assess and account for DNA recovery and inhibition in qPCR applications.     

A reassessment of the Lower Namoi Catchment aquifer architecture and hydraulic connectivity with reference to climate drivers

We demonstrate the need for better representations of aquifer architecture to understand hydraulic connectivity and manage groundwater allocations for the ～140 m-thick alluvial sequences in the Lower Namoi Catchment, Australia. In the 1980s, an analysis of palynological and groundwater hydrograph data resulted in a simple three-layer stratigraphic/hydrostratigraphic representation for the aquifer system, consisting of an unconfined aquifer overlying two semi-confined aquifers. We present an analysis of 278 borehole lithological logs within the catchment and show that the stratigraphy is far more complex. The architectural features and the net-to-gross line-plot of the valley-filling sequence are best represented by a distributive fluvial system, where the avulsion frequency increases at a slower rate than the aggradation rate.

We also show that an improved understanding of past climates contextualises the architectural features observable in the valley-filling sequence, and that the lithofacies distribution captures information about the impact of climate change during the Neogene and Quaternary. We demonstrate the correlation between climate and the vertical lithological succession by correlating the sediment net-to-gross ratio line-plot with the marine benthic oxygen isotope line-plot – a climate change proxy. Pollens indicate that there was a transition from a relatively wet climate in the mid–late Miocene to a drier climate in the Pleistocene, with a continuing drying trend until present. Groundwater is currently extracted from the sand and gravel belts associated with the high-energy wetter climate. However, some of these channel belts are disconnected from the modern river and flood zone. We show that the cutoff between the hydraulically well- and poorly connected portions of the valley-filling sequence matches the connectivity threshold expected from a fluvial system.     

Importance of programme design for potential US domestic GHG offset supply and quality

Greenhouse gas (GHG) offsets are a central feature of most regional and national cap-and-trade systems. A greenhouse offset credit represents a tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) reduced, avoided or sequestered by a project implemented specifically to compensate for emissions occurring elsewhere. Several existing modelling studies estimate the technically and economically achievable supply of GHG offsets from uncapped sources in the US. This analysis is among the few that consider how the design of offset protocols – and the corresponding rules for eligibility, measuring, verifying and awarding offsets – might impact actual offset crediting and the realization of GHG mitigation potential. The presented analysis demonstrates how rules for each of these factors could impact the supply of offset credits, as well as the emissions-reduction benefits of an offset programme. Findings indicate that although lenient offset rules and protocols may bring several times more credits to market than a conservative approach, these gains in offset supply would come at a significant cost to the effectiveness of the cap-and-trade system in achieving its central purpose: reducing overall GHG emissions. In particular, lenient rules and protocols could conceivably lead US emissions to exceed legislative targets by as much as 500 million tonnes CO₂e in 2020.     

Modification of Jupiter’s stratosphere three weeks after the 2009 impact

Infrared spectroscopy sensitive to thermal emission from Jupiter’s stratosphere reveals effects persisting 23 days after the impact of a body in late July 2009. Measurements obtained on 2009 August 11 UT at the impact latitude of 56°S (planetocentric), using the Goddard Heterodyne Instrument for Planetary Wind and Composition mounted on the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility, reveal increased ethane abundance and the effects of aerosol opacity. An interval of reduced thermal continuum emission at 11.744 μm is measured ∼60-80° towards planetary east of the impact site, estimated to be at 305° longitude (System III). Retrieved stratospheric ethane mole fraction in the near vicinity of the impact site is enhanced by up to ∼60% relative to quiescent regions at this latitude. Thermal continuum emission at the impact site, and somewhat west of it, is significantly enhanced in the same spectra that retrieve enhanced ethane mole fraction. Assuming that the enhanced continuum brightness near the impact site results from thermalized aerosol debris blocking contribution from the continuum formed in the upper troposphere and indicating the local temperature, then continuum emission by a haze layer can be approximated by an opaque surface inserted at the 45-60 mbar pressure level in the stratosphere in an unperturbed thermal profile, setting an upper limit on the pressure and therefore a lower limit on the altitude of the top of the impact debris at this time. The reduced continuum brightness east of the impact site can be modeled by an opaque surface near the cold tropopause, which is consistent with a lower altitude of ejecta/impactor-formed opacity. The physical extent of the observed region of reduced continuum implies a minimum average velocity of 21 m/s transporting material prograde (planetary east) from the impact.     

Indoor Air Background Levels of Volatile Organic Compounds and Air-Phase Petroleum Hydrocarbons in Office Buildings and Schools

A background indoor air study has been completed which includes the collection of indoor air samples from office buildings and schools. The anonymous study was designed with input from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection. The sampling was implemented in 2013, 2014, and 2015 and included the collection of 25 school building samples and 61 office building samples. The study generated 14,668 new indoor air background data points, with samples collected from buildings located in 26 cities in 18 states, including Arizona, California, Connecticut, Indiana, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Utah, and Washington. Indoor air background concentrations of target compound volatile organic compounds (VOCs) ranged from less than the laboratory method reporting limit of 0.044 μg/m³ to concentrations up to 1190 μg/m³, with hydrocarbon ranges from less than the reporting method limit of 10 μg/m³ to concentrations up to 3000 μg/m³. Some VOCs were identified ubiquitously in indoor air background, and some were identified at concentrations which exceeded risk-based regulatory screening levels. These study results provide useful and updated information on indoor air background and air quality in offices and schools and can be used in future regulatory guidance update considerations, for further examination of relationships between these data and residential study data, in human health risk assessments and risk communication, and in planning future studies.     

Estimating traveler populations at airport and cruise terminals for population distribution and dynamics

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.