Water Resources Planning and Climate Change Assessment Methods

This paper, which provides background for other papers in the volume, first reviews the nature and development of water resources planning and evaluation criteria at the Federal level in the United States. These criteria constitute a highly developed, complex set of guidelines for project planning and evaluation. The level of development of these criteria and their long historical development from theoretical foundations must be taken into account in relating global climate change to possible changes in planning criteria. Second, the essentials of water project planning and evaluation, including benefit-cost principles and more complex concepts of social decision-making, are outlined. Third, the paper provides an overview of global climate change assessment methods, including impact assessment and integrated assessment. Impact assessment uses a relatively straightforward comparison of with and without situations; integrated assessment attempts to improve on impact assessment by developing more complex models that incorporate a range of feedbacks and interrelationships.     

Nutrient limitation of the macroalgaEnteromorpha intestinalis collected along a resource gradient in a highly eutrophic estuary

We conducted a laboratory experiment to quantify nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) limitation of macroalgae collected along a gradient in water column nutrient availability in Upper Newport Bay estuary, a relatively nutrient-rich system in southern California, United States. We collectedEnteromorpha intestinalis and water for use in the experiment from five sites ranging from the lower end of the estuary to the head. Initial algal tissue N and P concentrations and molar N∶P ratios—as well as water column NO₃ and total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN)—increased along a spatial gradient from the lower end toward the head. Water column soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) varied among sites as well but did not follow a pattem of increasing from the seaward end toward the head. Algae from each site were assigned to one of four experimental treatments: control (C), nitrogen enrichment (+N), phosphorus enrichment (+P), and nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment (+N+P). Each week for 3 wk we replaced the water in each unit with the appropriate treatment water to mimic a poorly flushed estuary. After 3 wk, the degree of nutrient limitation ofE. intestinalis varied spatially with distance from the head of the estuary. Growth ofE. intestinalis collected from several sites increased with N enrichment alone and increased further when P was added in combination with N This indicated that N was limiting and that when N was sufficient, P became limiting. Sites from whichE. intestinalis exhibited nutrient limitation spanned the range of background water column NO₃ (12.9±0.4 to 55.2±2.1 μM) and SRP (0.8±0.0 to 2.9±0.2 μM) concentrations. Algae that were N limited had initial tissue N levels ranging from 1.18±0.03 to 2.81±0.08% dry weight and molar N∶P ratios ranging from 16.75±0.39 to 26.40±1.98.     

Transport of dissolved methoxy-nonafluorobutane through a saturated column

Solute transport experiments were conducted in a one-dimensional saturated column using dissolved methoxy-nonafluorobutane (HFE-7100), a Novec engineered fluid developed by the 3M Corporation, as the solute. Novec engineered fluids are considered dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) because they are immiscible with water and have a specific gravity greater than one. The HFE-7100 fluid is safer and environmentally friendlier than common DNAPL contaminants such as tetrachloroethylene (PCE) or trichloroethylene (TCE); thus, it is an ideal substitute DNAPL for laboratory groundwater contamination research. Three sets of solute transport experiments were conducted. The first set of experiments was conducted in a glass-bead-packed column using dissolved HFE-7100 as the solute. The second set of experiments was conducted in a sand-packed column using dissolved HFE-7100 as the solute. The third set of experiments was conducted in a sand-packed column using dissolved PCE as the solute. The dissolved HFE-7100 column breakthrough concentrations were compared with dissolved PCE breakthrough concentrations. Results show that the one-dimensional solute transport equation was successful in describing the transport behavior of dissolved HFE-7100. This study demonstrates that the HFE-7100 fluid can be used as a safer substitute DNAPL for groundwater contaminant dissolution and transport research.     

Sediment deposition in the flood plain of Stemple Creek Watershed, northern California

Over the past 150 years, major land use changes have occurred in the Stemple Creek Watershed in northern California that have caused erosion to move soils from the upland to the flood plain, stream channels, and the bay. The purpose of this study is to document the recent (1954 to present) sediment deposition patterns in the flood plain area adjacent to Stemple Creek using the ¹³⁷Cesium technique. Sediment deposition ranged from 0.26 to 1.84 cm year⁻¹ for the period from 1964 to 2002 with an average of 0.85±0.41 cm year⁻¹. Sediment deposition rates were higher for the 1954 to 1964 period with a range of 0.31–3.50 cm year⁻¹ and an average of 1.29±1.04 cm year⁻¹. These data indicate that sediment deposition in the flood plain has decreased since the middle 1950s, probably related to reduction in row crop agriculture and an increase in pasturelands. This study shows that the flood plains in the Stemple Creek Watershed are a significant sink for the soils being eroded from the upland area. Given the significance of the flood plain for trapping eroded materials before they reach the stream channels or the bay, efforts need to be made to manage these flood plain areas to insure that they do not change and become a source rather than a sink for eroded materials as improved management practices on the upland areas reduce sediment input to the flood plain.     

Fluid-mobile trace element constraints on the role of slab melting and implications for Archaean crustal growth models

We use published and new trace element data to identify element ratios which discriminate between arc magmas from the supra-subduction zone mantle wedge and those formed by direct melting of subducted crust (i.e. adakites). The clearest distinction is obtained with those element ratios which are strongly fractionated during refertilisation of the depleted mantle wedge, ultimately reflecting slab dehydration. Hence, adakites have significantly lower Pb/Nd and B/Be but higher Nb/Ta than typical arc magmas and continental crust as a whole. Although Li and Be are also overenriched in continental crust, behaviour of Li/Yb and Be/Nd is more complex and these ratios do not provide unique signatures of slab melting. Archaean tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorites (TTGs) strongly resemble ordinary mantle wedge-derived arc magmas in terms of fluid-mobile trace element content, implying that they did not form by slab melting but that they originated from mantle which was hydrated and enriched in elements lost from slabs during prograde dehydration. We suggest that Archaean TTGs formed by extensive fractional crystallisation from a mafic precursor. It is widely claimed that the time between the creation and subduction of oceanic lithosphere was significantly shorter in the Archaean (i.e. 20 Ma) than it is today. This difference was seen as an attractive explanation for the presumed preponderance of adakitic magmas during the first half of Earth's history. However, when we consider the effects of a higher potential mantle temperature on the thickness of oceanic crust, it follows that the mean age of oceanic lithosphere has remained virtually constant. Formation of adakites has therefore always depended on local plate geometry and not on potential mantle temperature.     

Stabilization of extracellular polymeric substances (Bacillus subtilis) by adsorption to and coprecipitation with Al forms

Extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) are continuously produced by bacteria during their growth and metabolism. In soils, EPS are bound to cell surfaces, associated with biofilms, or released into solution where they can react with other solutes and soil particle surfaces. If such reaction results in a decrease in EPS bioaccessibility, it may contribute to stabilization of microbial-derived organic carbon (OC) in soil. Here we examined: (i) the chemical fractionation of EPS produced by a common Gram positive soil bacterial strain (Bacillus subtilis) during reaction with dissolved and colloidal Al species and (ii) the resulting stabilization against desorption and microbial decay by the respective coprecipitation (with dissolved Al) and adsorption (with Al(OH)_3(am)) processes. Coprecipitates and adsorption complexes obtained following EPS-Al reaction as a function of pH and ionic strength were characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The stability of adsorbed and coprecipitated EPS against biodegradation was assessed by mineralization experiments for 1100 h. Up to 60% of the initial 100 mg/L EPS-C was adsorbed at the highest initial molar Al:C ratio (1.86), but this still resulted only in a moderate OC mass fraction in the solid phase (17 mg/g Al(OH)_3(am)). In contrast, while coprecipitation by Al was less efficient in removing EPS from solution (maximum values of 33% at molar Al:C ratios of 0.1-0.2), the OC mass fraction in the solid product was substantially larger than that in adsorption complexes. Organic P compounds were preferentially bound during both adsorption and coprecipitation. Data are consistent with strong ligand exchange of EPS phosphoryl groups during adsorption to Al(OH)_3(am), whereas for coprecipitation weaker sorption mechanisms are also involved. X-ray photoelectron analyses indicate an intimate mixing of EPS with Al in the coprecipitates, which is not observed in the case of EPS adsorption complexes. The incubation experiments showed that both processes result in overall stabilization of EPS against microbial decay. Stabilization of adsorbed or coprecipitated EPS increased with increasing molar Al:C ratio and biodegradation was correlated with EPS desorption, implying that detachment of EPS from surface sites is a prerequisite for microbial utilization. Results indicate that the mechanisms transferring EPS into Al-organic associations may significantly affect the composition and stability of biomolecular C, N and P in soils. The observed efficient stabilization of EPS might explain the strong microbial character of organic matter in subsoils.     

Climate Change and Water Resources

Current perspectives on global climate change based on recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are presented. Impacts of a greenhouse warming that are likely to affect water planning and evaluation include changes in precipitation and runoff patterns, sea level rise, land use and population shifts following from these effects, and changes in water demands. Irrigation water demands are particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, temperature, and carbon dioxide levels. Despite recent advances in climate change science, great uncertainty remains as to how and when climate will change and how these changes will affect the supply and demand for water at the river basin and watershed levels, which are of most interest to planners. To place the climate-induced uncertainties in perspective, the influence on the supply and demand for water of non-climate factors such as population, technology, economic conditions, social and political factors, and the values society places on alternative water uses are considered.     

Accumulation and speciation of selenium in evaporation basins in California,USA

The accumulation of selenium in evaporation basins (or ponds) in the San Joaquin Valley, California is of a great concern due to its potential hazards to environments. In this study, the accumulation, speciation and concentrations of Se were examined in waters as well as sediments in a system of the evaporation ponds. A significant decrease in the total dissolved Se concentration in Cell 1 in which drainage water with higher Se concentration was pumped from Inlet Channels indicated that the immobilization of Se was active in the Cell 1 and resulted in the higher Se concentration in sediments compared to the terminal cell such as Cell 9. The percentage of reduced Se species such as selenite [Se(IV)] and org-Se of total Se in drainage waters was also found increased in Cell 1 compared to Inlet Channels. The total dissolved Se concentrations in water along flow paths from Cell 1 were relatively constant except for terminal cells such as Cells 9 and 10, which showed higher total dissolved Se concentrations due to evapoconcentration. The percentage of reduced Se forms of total Se was inversely proportional to the percentage of Se(VI) depending on the redox condition of evaporation ponds along the flow paths. Sequential extractions of Se species in sediments indicated that organic associated Se and elemental Se were prevalent forms in sediments in the ponds system. The higher concentrations of elemental Se and organic associated Se in sediments in Cell 1 indicated that the immobilization of Se was active in the sediments compared to Cell 9, while the percentage of both fractions of total Se in sediments in Cells 1 and 9 was relatively constant. The organic materials from algae might provide carbon sources for Se reduction and Se sink in sediments in its elemental and organic associated forms.     

Implications of the serpentine phase transition on the behaviour of beryllium and lithium-boron of subducted ultramafic rocks

The Totalp-Platta-Malenco ophiolites in the Eastern Central Alps offer a unique opportunity to study the behaviour of Li, Be and B in ultramafic rocks in response to serpentinization and to progressive Alpine metamorphism. These units represent the remnants of a former ocean-continent transition that was intensely serpentinized during exposure on the Jurassic seafloor of the Ligurian Tethys. From north to the south, three isograd reactions (lizardite⇒antigorite+brucite;lizardite+talc⇒antigorite;lizardite+tremolite⇒antigorite+diopside) have been used to quantify the evolution of the light element content of metamorphic minerals. We determined the Li, Be and B concentrations in major silicate minerals from the ultramafic bodies of Totalp, Platta and Malenco by secondary ion mass spectrometry. Mantle minerals have Be concentrations (e.g. <0.001-0.009 μg/g in olivine) similar to the metamorphic minerals that replace them (e.g. <0.001-0.016 μg/g in serpentine). The mantle signature of Be is thus neither erased during seafloor alteration nor by progressive metamorphism from prehnite-pumpellyite to epidote-amphibolite facies. In contrast, the Li and B inventories of metamorphic minerals are related to the lizardite-to-antigorite transition. Both elements display higher concentrations in the low-temperature serpentine polymorph lizardite (max. 156 μg/g Li, max. 318 μg/g B) than in antigorite (max. 0.11 μg/g Li, max. 12 μg/g B). Calculated average B/Li ratios for lizardite (∼1395) and antigorite (∼115) indicate that Li fractionates from B during the lizardite-to-antigorite transition during prograde metamorphism in ultramafic rocks. In subduction zones, this signature is likely to be recorded in the B-rich nature of forearc fluids.Relative to oceanic mantle the Be content of mantle clinopyroxene is much higher, but similar to Be values from mantle xenoliths and subduction-related peridotite massifs. These data support previous hypothesis that the mantle rocks from the Eastern Central Alps have a subcontinental origin. We conclude that Be behaves conservatively during subduction metamorphism of ultramafic rocks, at least at low-temperature, and thus retains the fingerprint of ancient subduction-related igneous events in mantle peridotites.