Wetland Loss Patterns and Inundation-Productivity Relationships Prognosticate Widespread Salt Marsh Loss for Southern New England

Tidal salt marsh is a key defense against, yet is especially vulnerable to, the effects of accelerated sea level rise. To determine whether salt marshes in southern New England will be stable given increasing inundation over the coming decades, we examined current loss patterns, inundation-productivity feedbacks, and sustaining processes. A multi-decadal analysis of salt marsh aerial extent using historic imagery and maps revealed that salt marsh vegetation loss is both widespread and accelerating, with vegetation loss rates over the past four decades summing to 17.3 %. Landward retreat of the marsh edge, widening and headward expansion of tidal channel networks, loss of marsh islands, and the development and enlargement of interior depressions found on the marsh platform contributed to vegetation loss. Inundation due to sea level rise is strongly suggested as a primary driver: vegetation loss rates were significantly negatively correlated with marsh elevation (r ²?=?0.96; p?=?0.0038), with marshes situated below mean high water (MHW) experiencing greater declines than marshes sitting well above MHW. Growth experiments with Spartina alterniflora, the Atlantic salt marsh ecosystem dominant, across a range of elevations and inundation regimes further established that greater inundation decreases belowground biomass production of S. alterniflora and, thus, negatively impacts organic matter accumulation. These results suggest that southern New England salt marshes are already experiencing deterioration and fragmentation in response to sea level rise and may not be stable as tidal flooding increases in the future.     

An Analysis Platform for Multiscale Hydrogeologic Modeling with Emphasis on Hybrid Multiscale Methods

One of the most significant challenges faced by hydrogeologic modelers is the disparity between the spatial and temporal scales at which fundamental flow, transport, and reaction processes can best be understood and quantified (e.g., microscopic to pore scales and seconds to days) and at which practical model predictions are needed (e.g., plume to aquifer scales and years to centuries). While the multiscale nature of hydrogeologic problems is widely recognized, technological limitations in computation and characterization restrict most practical modeling efforts to fairly coarse representations of heterogeneous properties and processes. For some modern problems, the necessary level of simplification is such that model parameters may lose physical meaning and model predictive ability is questionable for any conditions other than those to which the model was calibrated. Recently, there has been broad interest across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines in simulation approaches that more rigorously account for the multiscale nature of systems of interest. In this article, we review a number of such approaches and propose a classification scheme for defining different types of multiscale simulation methods and those classes of problems to which they are most applicable. Our classification scheme is presented in terms of a flowchart (Multiscale Analysis Platform), and defines several different motifs of multiscale simulation. Within each motif, the member methods are reviewed and example applications are discussed. We focus attention on hybrid multiscale methods, in which two or more models with different physics described at fundamentally different scales are directly coupled within a single simulation. Very recently these methods have begun to be applied to groundwater flow and transport simulations, and we discuss these applications in the context of our classification scheme. As computational and characterization capabilities continue to improve, we envision that hybrid multiscale modeling will become more common and also a viable alternative to conventional single‐scale models in the near future.     

Recent shifts in coastline change and shoreline stabilization linked to storm climate change

Since cuspate coastlines are especially sensitive to changes in wave climate, they serve as potential indicators of initial responses to changing wave conditions. Previous work demonstrates that Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout, North Carolina, which are largely unaffected by shoreline stabilization efforts, have become increasingly asymmetric over the past 30 years, consistent with model predictions for coastline response to increases in Atlantic Ocean summer wave heights and resulting changes in the distribution of wave‐approach angles. Historic and recent shoreline change observations for Cape Fear, North Carolina, and model simulations of coastline response to an increasingly asymmetric wave climate in the presence of beach nourishment, produce comparable differences in shoreline change rates in response to changes in wave climate. Results suggest that the effect of beach nourishment is to compensate for – and therefore to mask – natural responses to wave climate change that might otherwise be discernible in patterns of shoreline change alone. Therefore, this case study suggests that the effects of wave climate change on human‐modified coastlines may be detectable in the spatial and temporal patterns of shoreline stabilization activities. Similar analyses of cuspate features in areas where the change in wave climate is less pronounced (i.e. Fishing Point, Maryland/Virginia) and where local geology appears to exert control on coastline shape (i.e. Cape Canaveral, Florida), suggest that changes in shoreline configuration that may be arising from shifting wave climate are currently limited to sandy wave‐dominated coastlines where the change in wave climate has been most pronounced. However, if hurricane‐generated wave heights continue to increase, large‐scale shifts in patterns of erosion and accretion will likely extend beyond sensitive cuspate features as the larger‐scale coastline shape comes into equilibrium with changing wave conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cosmogenic 3He and 21Ne dating of biotite and hornblende

Stable cosmogenic isotopes such as ³He and ²¹Ne are useful for dating of diverse lithologies, quantifying erosion rates and ages of ancient surfaces and sediments, and for assessing complex burial histories. Although many minerals are potentially suitable targets for ³He and ²¹Ne dating, complex production systematics require calibration of each mineral–isotope pair. We present new results from a drill core in a high-elevation ignimbrite surface, which demonstrates that cosmogenic ³He and ²¹Ne can be readily measured in biotite and hornblende. ²¹Ne production rates in hornblende and biotite are similar, and are higher than that in quartz due to production from light elements such as Mg and Al. We measure ²¹Ne_hbl/²¹Ne_qtz = 1.35 ± 0.03 and ²¹Ne_bio/²¹Ne_qtz = 1.3 ± 0.02, which yield production rates of 25.6 ± 3.0 and 24.7 ± 2.9 at g^? 1 yr^? 1 relative to a ²¹Ne_qtz production rate of 19.0 ± 1.8 at g^? 1 yr^? 1. We show that nucleogenic ²¹Ne concentrations produced via the reaction ¹⁸O(α,n)²¹Ne are manageably small in this setting, and we present a new approach to deconvolve nucleogenic ²¹Ne by comparison to nucleogenic ²²Ne produced from the reaction ¹⁹F(α,n)²²Ne in F-rich phases such as biotite. Our results show that hornblende is a suitable target phase for cosmogenic ³He dating, but that ³He is lost from biotite at Earth surface temperatures. Comparison of ³He concentrations in hornblende with previously measured mineral phases such as apatite and zircon provides unambiguous evidence for ³He production via the reaction ⁶Li(n,α)³H → ³He. Due to the atypically high Li content in the hornblende (~ 160 ppm) we estimate that Li-produced ³He represents ~ 40% of total ³He production in our samples, and must be considered on a sample-specific basis if ³He dating in hornblende is to be widely implemented.     

Encounters with an unearthly mudstone: Understanding the first mudstone found on Mars

The Sheepbed mudstone forms the base of the strata examined by the Curiosity rover in Gale Crater on Mars, and is the first bona fide mudstone known on another planet. From images and associated data, this contribution proposes a holistic interpretation of depositional regime, diagenesis and burial history. A lake basin probably received sediment pulses from alluvial fans. Bed cross‐sections show millimetre to centimetre‐scale layering due to distal pulses of fluvial sediment injections (fine‐grained hyperpycnites), fall‐out from river plumes, and some aeolian supply. Diagenetic features include mineralized synaeresis cracks and millimetre‐scale nodules, as well as stratiform cementation. Clay minerals were initially considered due to in situ alteration, but bulk rock chemistry and mineralogy suggests that sediments were derived from variably weathered source rocks that probably contained pre‐existing clay minerals. X‐ray diffraction analyses show contrasting clay mineralogy in closely spaced samples, consistent with at least partial detrital supply of clay minerals. A significant (ca 30 wt%) amorphous component is consistent with little post‐depositional alteration. Theoretical modelling of diagenetic reactions, as well as kinetic considerations, suggest that the bulk of diagenetic clay mineral formation occurred comparatively late in diagenesis. Diagenetic features (synaeresis cracks and nodules) were previously thought to reflect early diagenetic gas formation, but an alternative scenario of synaeresis crack formation via fabric collapse of flocculated clays appears more likely. The observed diagenetic features, such as solid nodules, hollow nodules, matrix cement and ‘raised ridges’ (synaeresis cracks) can be explained with progressive alteration of olivine/glass in conjunction with centrifugal and counter diffusion of reactive species. Anhydrite‐filled fractures in the Sheepbed mudstone occurred late in diagenesis when fluid pressures built up to exceed lithostatic pressure. Generating fluid overpressure by burial to facilitate hydraulic fracturing suggests a burial depth of at least 1000 m for the underlying strata that supplied these fluids.     

Investigation of OMA formation and the effect of minerals

Oil-mineral-aggregates (OMA) have been shown to be effective in oil spills cleanup. Experimental work was carried out to study the effects of physical-chemical properties of natural minerals and chemically modified minerals on OMA formation and oil removal. The results showed that the hydrophobicity, particle sizes and specific surface of minerals played an important role in OMA formation. Appropriate hydrophobicity of minerals can enhance the formation of OMA. The surface property of minerals can also influence the shape of OMA. Spherical mineral-oil aggregates were frequently formed with hydrophilic minerals while irregular shaped OMA were observed with hydrophobic minerals. The sizes of OMA also increased when the minerals changed from hydrophilic to hydrophobic. The effects of dispersant and mixing energy were also carefully studied. The results showed that dispersant were a dominant factor. When dispersant was applied, effects of other factors became minimal.     

Assessing the performance of structure‐from‐motion photogrammetry and terrestrial LiDAR for reconstructing soil surface microtopography of naturally vegetated plots

Soil microtopography is a property of critical importance in many earth surface processes but is often difficult to quantify. Advances in computer vision technologies have made image‐based three‐dimensional (3D) reconstruction or Structure‐from‐Motion (SfM) available to many scientists as a low cost alternative to laser‐based systems such as terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). While the performance of SfM at acquiring soil surface microtopography has been extensively compared to that of TLS on bare surfaces, little is known about the impact of vegetation on reconstruction performance. This article evaluates the performance of SfM and TLS technologies at reconstructing soil microtopography on 6 m × 2 m erosion plots with vegetation cover ranging from 0% to 77%. Results show that soil surface occlusion by vegetation was more pronounced with TLS compared to SfM, a consequence of the single viewpoint laser scanning strategy adopted in this study. On the bare soil surface, elevation values estimated with SfM were within 5 mm of those from TLS although long distance deformations were observed with the former technology. As vegetation cover increased, agreement between SfM and TLS slightly degraded but was significantly affected beyond 53% of ground cover. Detailed semivariogram analysis on meter‐square‐scale surface patches showed that TLS and SfM surfaces were very similar even on highly vegetated plots but with fine scale details and the dynamic elevation range smoothed out with SfM. Errors in the TLS data were mainly caused by the distance measurement function of the instrument especially at the fringe of occlusion regions where the laser beam intersected foreground and background features simultaneously. From this study, we conclude that a realistic approach to digitizing soil surface microtopography in field conditions can be implemented by combining strengths of the image‐based method (simplicity and effectiveness at reconstructing soil surface under sparse vegetation) with the high accuracy of TLS‐like technologies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian approach to contaminant source characterization in water distribution systems: adaptive sampling framework

Bayesian analysis can yield a probabilistic contaminant source characterization conditioned on available sensor data and accounting for system stochastic processes. This paper is based on a previously proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach tailored for water distribution systems and incorporating stochastic water demands. The observations can include those from fixed sensors and, the focus of this paper, mobile sensors. Decision makers, such as utility managers, need not wait until new observations are available from an existing sparse network of fixed sensors. This paper addresses a key research question: where is the best location in the network to gather additional measurements so as to maximize the reduction in the source uncertainty? Although this has been done in groundwater management, it has not been well addressed in water distribution networks. In this study, an adaptive framework is proposed to guide the strategic placement of mobile sensors to complement the fixed sensor network. MCMC is the core component of the proposed adaptive framework, while several other pieces are indispensable: Bayesian preposterior analysis, value of information criterion and the search strategy for identifying an optimal location. Such a framework is demonstrated with an illustrative example, where four candidate sampling locations in the small water distribution network are investigated. Use of different value-of-information criteria reveals that while each may lead to different outcomes, they share some common characteristics. The results demonstrate the potential of Bayesian analysis and the MCMC method for contaminant event management.     

THERMALLY DRIVEN SORPTION,DESORPTION, AND MOISTURE MIGRATION IN THE ACTIVE LAYER IN CENTRAL ALASKA

Combined observations of hourly soil temperature and electric potential, the latter converted to a relative index of soil-water solute concentration, yield information on the physical chemistry of near-surface frost effects. Solute concentration near the descending 0° C isotherm in the refreezing active layer above permafrost is divided into three distinct zones: (1) an ion-enriched zone in the unfrozen active layer that precedes the penetrating freezing front; (2) an ion-purified desorbed zone at the freezing front that is the source region of the downward-expelled ions and water; and (3) a hydrologically isolated subfreezing zone of enhanced solute concentration located above the freezing isotherm. High-frequency fluctuations superimposed on these general patterns are traceable to vapor migration driven by surface thermal fluctuations. These effects diminish at temperatures below about -0.4° C, as permeability decreases with soil-ice formation. The combined temperature-solute concentration time series is used to develop sorption curves for the frozen organic and mineral soils, and indicates that approximately half of the pore water present in the mineral soil at -0.4° C had not been converted to ice at -6° C. Gradual soil desiccation over winter appears to result from outward vapor diffusion, possibly through soil cracks. [Key words: Alaska, active layer, frozen ground, soil temperature, soil water, permafrost.]