Evaluation of LPM permafrost distribution in NE Asia reconstructed and downscaled from GCM simulations

A high‐resolution map of potential frozen ground distribution in NE Asia (90–150°E, 25–60°N) at the period of the Last Permafrost Maximum (LPM, c. 21 000 years ago) was dually reconstructed by means of a statistical classification using air freezing and thawing indices and a topographical downscaling using a digital relief model (ETOPO1). Background LPM climate data were derived from global climate model simulations of the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project, Phase II (PMIP2). The reconstructed LPM map shows the southward shift of the southern limit of climate‐driven permafrost by 400–1500 km, with the greatest advance in the western sector (90–110°E), encompassing an area from central Siberia to most of the Altai area. The advance of environmentally conditional permafrost and seasonally frozen ground was greatest in the eastern sector (110–150°E), with an average shift of about 450 km. The descent of the lower limit of LPM alpine permafrost was in the range of 400–800 m. A comparison of the reconstructed map with published literature shows that this method, simplistically constructed yet effectively recognizing seasonality, continentality and topography, captures local features better than more elaborate methods. The sensitivity examination of a constant atmospheric lapse rate shows that altitudes of 2000–5000 m a.s.l. were most sensitive, though with only a limited effect on overall LPM distribution.     

Additionality reconsidered: lax criteria may not benefit developing countries

Abstract

International negotiation on the additionality issue of the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) seems to be proceeding without sufficient information or understanding. Especially apparent is a lack of recognition that the non-additional CERs (certified emission reductions) generated by relaxing the additionality criteria may lead to economic losses for developing countries. This article quantitatively reconfirms the effects of non-additional CERs on the international community, while clarifying that the generation of non-additional CERs in excess of a certain number will eventually lead to negative consequences for developing countries, even if these countries were able to acquire all the non-additional CERs. Furthermore, the Discussion section demonstrates that future system design would significantly affect the benefits of developing countries as well as the overall environmental integrity of the Kyoto mechanisms.     

Abiki oscillations in Sakitsu Bay,west Kyushu,Japan

Sakitsu and Yokaku bays in Amakusa in west Kyushu, Japan, experienced inundation damage in the February 2009 meteotsunami (Abiki) event. The oscillation characteristics of both bays are investigated by taking field measurements and conducting numerical experiments with regard to flood mitigation with the aim to reduce the flood impact during Abiki events. A continuous wavelet transform and bandpass filtering both of the pressure and water level indicated that a sequence of pressure disturbances, as small as 1.0 hPa, caused the large amplified oscillation within Sakitsu Bay. When a sequence of ocean long waves entered the bay, a surf beat evolved in the early stages. Subsequently, the sea level began to undergo large amplitude oscillations, and there was a secondary peak of oscillation with a period of around 24 min, as seen in both field measurements and numerical experiments. A surf beat with the period of 12 min formed in Yokaku Bay owing to the continuous incidence of ocean waves with period of 12 min, but its wave period was almost half of that of the natural period of the bay. This surf beat may have entered Sakitsu Bay with natural period of 11.8 min and caused large water-level fluctuations.     

The design of diamond Compton telescope

We have developed radiation detectors using the new synthetic diamonds. The diamond detector has an advantage for observations of “low/medium” energy gamma rays as a Compton telescope. The primary advantage of the diamond detector can reduce the photoelectric effect in the low energy range, which is background noise for tracking of the Compton recoil electron. A concept of the Diamond Compton Telescope (DCT) consists of position sensitive layers of diamond-striped detector and calorimeter layer of CdTe detector. The key part of the DCT is diamond-striped detectors with a higher positional resolution and a wider energy range from 10 keV to 10 MeV. However, the diamond-striped detector is under development. We describe the performance of prototype diamond detector and the design of a possible DCT evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations.      

Activity Profile of the Sextantid Meteor Shower

The detailed activity profile of the Sextandids - one of the day-time meteor showers - is poorly known and still unclear. Using the forward-scatter radio technique we have successfully been able to obtain further detailed overall activity profile of the Sextantids for seven consecutive years: 1991–1997. Analysis confirmed the Sextantid activity duration in solar longitude (J2000) of at least 184–193° and the maximum solar longitude at 188.35 ± 0.10° with a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 2.0 ± 0.2°. Performing the numerical integrations, we also substantiated a possibility of the association between Apollo-type asteroid (3200) Phaethon and the Sextantids. Furthermore, we roughly estimated relative maximum flux rate of Sextantids : Geminids as 1 : 3 amplitude ratio. Depending upon the flux rates and the time lags of the orbital evolution with Phaethon, we conclude that the Sextantids are at a more progressive stage of orbital evolution than the Geminids if both meteor streams are really associated with Phaethon. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Astrometric Telescope Facility

Summary The Astrometric Telescope Facility (ATF) proposed for use on NASA's planned Space Station is similar in form and data output to ground-based long focus astrometric instruments. With a focal plane scale of 12.7 arc seconds/mm, the strawman design has a field size of 10 arc min square and a limiting visual magnitude fainter than 16. Output from an observation includes the X and Y coordinates of each star and its relative brightness. The targeted precision for the AFT is 0.00001 arc seconds.Portions of the observing program will be made available to members of the astronomical community.     

Tsunami Source of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia Earthquake Inferred from Tsunami Field Survey and Waveform Modeling

The 2010 Mentawai earthquake (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this earthquake was an unusual “tsunami earthquake,” which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation modeling to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4–7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the earthquake ground shaking was less intense than during previous large earthquakes and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami earthquakes. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 10²¹ Nm, which corresponded to M_w 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source model using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.