Energy efficiency potentials for global climate change mitigation

Energy efficiency is one of the main options for mitigating climate change. An accurate representation of various mechanisms of energy efficiency is vital for the assessment of its realistic potential. Results of a questionnaire show that the EMF27 models collectively represent known channels of energy efficiency reasonably well, addressing issues of energy efficiency barriers and rebound effects. The majority of models, including general equilibrium models, have an explicit end-use representation for the transportation sector. All participating partial equilibrium models have some capability of reflecting the actual market behavior of consumers and firms. The EMF27 results show that energy intensity declines faster under climate policy than under a baseline scenario. With a climate policy roughly consistent with a global warming of two degrees, the median annual improvement rate of energy intensity for 2010–2030 reaches 2.3 % per year [with a full model range of 1.3–2.9 %/yr], much faster than the historical rate of 1.3 % per year. The improvement rate increases further if technology is constrained. The results suggest that the target of the United Nations’ “Sustainable Energy for All” initiative is consistent with the 2-degree climate change target, as long as there are no technology constraints. The rate of energy intensity decline varies significantly across models, with larger variations at the regional and sectoral levels. Decomposition of the transportation sector down to a service level for a subset of models reveals that to achieve energy efficiency, a general equilibrium model tends to reduce service demands while partial equilibrium models favor technical substitution.     

Effects of soil fabric on behaviors of granular soils: Microscopic modeling

The effects of initial soil fabric on behaviors of granular soils are investigated by using Distinct Element Method (DEM) numerical simulation. Soil specimens are represented by an assembly of non-uniform sized spheres with different initial contact normal distributions. Isotropically consolidated triaxial compression loading and extension unloading in both undrained and drained conditions are simulated for vertically- and horizontally-sheared specimens. The numerical simulation results are compared qualitatively with the published experimental data and the effects of initial soil fabric on resulting soil behaviors are discussed, including the effects of specimen reconstitution methods, effects of large preshearing, and anisotropic characteristics in undrained and drained conditions. The effects of initial soil fabric and mode of shearing on the quasi-steady state line are also investigated. The numerical simulation results can systematically explain that the observed experimental behaviors of granular soils are due principally to their conditions of the initial soil fabric. This outcome provides insights into the observed phenomena in microscopic view.     

Cell contact-dependent lethal effect of the dinoflagellate Heterocapsa circularisquama on phytoplankton–phytoplankton interactions

We used bi-algal culture experiments to investigate and verify the roles of growth interaction between Heterocapsa circularisquama and Prorocentrum dentatum in monospecific bloom formation. Growth of H. circularisquama was slightly inhibited when inoculated at 10² cells mL^–1 along with P. dentatum at 10⁴ cells mL^–1. In other combinations of inoculation densities, P. dentatum density rapidly decreased to extremely low levels in the presence of H. circularisquama. We used a mathematical model to simulate growth and interactions of H. circularisquama and P. dentatum in bi-algal cultures. The model indicates that one species will always inhibit the growth of the other and that the relative initial cell densities of the species are critical in determining the outcome. When cultured together under conditions without cell contact, growth of H. circularisquama and P. dentatum was not inhibited. As with P. dentatum, the growth of Heterosigma akashiwo and Skeletonema costatum was inhibited in intact cell suspensions with H. circularisquama, but a nontoxic species, Heterocapsa triquetra, did not affect the growth of P. dentatum or the other species. Similarly, cell suspensions of H. circularisquama showed hemolytic activity toward rabbit erythrocytes, but those of H. triquetra did not. In addition, the cell-free supernatant of H. circularisquama cultures showed no significant hemolytic activity. These results suggest that H. circularisquama causes lethality in P. dentatum by direct cell contact in which live-cell-mediated hemolytic activity might be a contributing factor.     

Trace element partitioning between carbonatitic melts and mantle transition zone minerals: Implications for the source of carbonatites

The occurrence of CO₂-rich lavas (carbonatites, kimberlites) and carbonate-rich xenoliths provide evidence for the existence of carbonatitic melts in the mantle. To model the chemical composition of such melts in the deep mantle, we experimentally determined partition coefficients for 23 trace elements (including REE, U-Th, HFSE, LILE) between deep mantle minerals and carbonatite liquids at 20 and 25 GPa and 1600 °C. Under these conditions, majoritic garnet and CaSiO₃ perovskite are the main reservoirs for trace elements. This study used both femtosecond LA-ICP-MS and SIMS techniques to measure reliable trace element concentrations. Comparison of the two techniques shows a general agreement, except for Sc and Ba. Our experimentally determined partition coefficients are consistent with the lattice strain model. The data suggest an effect of melt structure on partition coefficients in this pressure range. For instance, strain-free partition coefficient (D₀) for majorite-carbonatite melts do not follow the order of cation valence, , observed for majorite-CO₂-free silicate melts. The newly determined partition coefficients were combined with trace element composition of majoritic garnets found as inclusions in diamond to model trace element patterns of deep-seated carbonatites. The result compares favorably with natural carbonatites. This suggests that carbonatites can originate from the mantle transition zone.     

Nuclear energy response in the EMF27 study

The nuclear energy response for mitigating global climate change across 18 participating models of the EMF27 study is investigated. Diverse perspectives on the future role of nuclear power in the global energy system are evident in the broad range of nuclear power contributions from participating models of the study. In the Baseline scenario without climate policy, nuclear electricity generation and shares span 0–66 EJ/year and 0–25 % in 2100 for all models, with a median nuclear electricity generation of 39 EJ/year (1,389 GWe at 90 % capacity factor) and median share of 9 %. The role of nuclear energy increased under the climate policy scenarios. The median of nuclear energy use across all models doubled in the 450 ppm CO₂e scenario with a nuclear electricity generation of 67 EJ/year (2,352 GWe at 90 % capacity factor) and share of 17 % in 2100. The broad range of nuclear electricity generation (11–214 EJ/year) and shares (2–38 %) in 2100 of the 450 ppm CO₂e scenario reflect differences in the technology choice behavior, technology assumptions and competitiveness of low carbon technologies. Greater clarification of nuclear fuel cycle issues and risk factors associated with nuclear energy use are necessary for understanding the nuclear deployment constraints imposed in models and for improving the assessment of the nuclear energy potential in addressing climate change.     

Space weather in the thermospheric–ionospheric domain over the Brazilian region: Climatology of ionospheric plasma bubbles in the subequatorial and low-latitude region

The climatology of ionospheric plasma bubbles is studied here by means of a comparison of the frequency of occurrence of the spread-F/plasma bubble events over the South American region using the images from two OI 630 nm imager systems located at the subequatorial station São João do Cariri—CA (7.4 S, 36.5 W, 20 S dip) and the low-latitude station Cachoeira Paulista—CP (22.5 S, 45 W, 33 S dip) in Brazil during the years of 2004 and 2005. The results are discussed in the light of current theory and geomagnetic parameters of the two observation stations.     

Constraining magma sources using primitive olivine-hosted melt inclusions from Puñalica and Sangay volcanoes (Ecuador)

Constraining arc magma sources at continental arc settings is a delicate task, because chemical signatures from crustal processes obscure the slab and mantle signatures. Here, we present major, trace, and volatile element compositions of olivine-hosted melt inclusions (Fo_82–89) selected from the most primitive lavas (Mg# >?60) from two Ecuadorian volcanoes (Puñalica and Sangay) situated at the southern termination of the Andean Northern Volcanic Zone. Melt inclusions (MI) from Puñalica are nepheline normative and have basaltic-to-basaltic-andesite compositions (45–56 wt% SiO₂) similar to peridotite-derived melts. Sangay MI is also nepheline normative, with high CaO (up to 16 wt% and CaO/Al₂O₃?<?1) and low silica contents (41.9–44.5 wt%) pointing out an amphibole-bearing clinopyroxenite source. Both volcanoes display volatile-rich compositions (up to 6100 ppm Cl, 2200 ppm F, and 6700 ppm S). These MI cannot be related to their host lavas by fractional crystallization, implying that they represent true primitive liquids. The source of Puñalica MI was metasomatized by slab-derived melts that imprints its low Ba/Th, Sr/Th, and high Th/La (average values of 66, 129, and 0.22, respectively). On the contrary, the slab component added to the source of Sangay MI has a higher Ba/Th, Sr/Th, and low Th/La (average values of 261, 517, and 0.11, respectively) which could suggest a relative contribution of aqueous fluids. This dichotomy is related to the presence of the Grijalva Fracture Zone that separates a younger and hotter oceanic crust to the north (below Puñalica) from a colder and older oceanic crust to the south (below Sangay).     

The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios

This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however—with the exception of low temperature heat—there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply—are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.     

The role of constitutive models in MPM simulations of granular column collapses

The granular column collapse is a well-established experiment which consists of having a vertical column of granular material on a flat surface and letting it collapse by gravity. Despite its simplicity in execution, the numerical modelling of a column collapse remains challenging. So far, much attention has been dedicated in assessing the ability of various numerical methods in modelling the large deformation and little to the role of the constitutive model on both the triggering mechanism and the flow behaviour. Furthermore, the influence of the initial density, and its associated dilatancy and strength characteristics, have never been included in the analyses. Most past numerical investigations had relied on simple constitutive relations which do not consider the softening behaviours. The aim of this study is to illustrate the influence of the constitutive model on the on-set of failure, the flow behaviour and the deposition profile using the material point method. Three constitutive models were used to simulate the collapse of two granular columns with different geometries and for two densities. The results of the simulations showed that the constitutive model had a twofold influence on the collapse behaviour. It defined the volume of the mobilised mass which spread along the flat surface and controlled the dissipation of its energy. The initial density was found to enhance the failure angle and flow behaviours and was more significant for small columns than for larger ones. The analysis of the potential energy of the mobilised mass explained the existence of two collapse regimes.