Reducing standard errors by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into a measurement scheme for soil carbon credits

Several studies have suggested that geostatistical techniques could be employed to reduce overall transactions costs associated with contracting for soil C credits by increasing the efficacy of sampling protocols used to measure C-credits. In this paper, we show how information about the range of spatial autocorrelation can be used in a measurement scheme to reduce the size of the confidence intervals that bound estimates of the mean number of C-credits generated per hectare. A tighter confidence interval around the mean number of C-credits sequestered could increase producer payments for each hectare enrolled in a contract to supply C-credits. An empirical application to dry land cropping systems in three regions of Montana shows that information about the spatial autocorrelation exhibited by soil C could be extremely valuable for reducing transactions costs associated with contracts for C-credits but the benefits are not uniform across all regions or cropping systems. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation greatly reduced the standard errors and narrowed the confidence intervals associated with sample estimates of the mean number of C-credits produced per hectare. For the payment mechanism considered in this paper, tighter confidence intervals around the mean number of C-credits created per hectare enrolled could increase producer payments by more than 100 percent under a C-contract.     

Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas

Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to identify counties at risk of low final ground water storage volume or low levels of satisfied demand by 2050.     

Effect of ocean acidification on coastal phytoplankton composition and accompanying organic nitrogen production

The effect of ocean acidification, caused by the increase in pCO₂ in seawater, on phytoplankton population and on related organic nitrogen production was experimentally examined by use of a natural coastal microbial population. pCO₂ and pH were controlled by aeration with air in which pCO₂ was at the current level (control), for which ambient air was used, and with air in which pCO₂ was ??800?? and ??1200?? ppm, in 500-L culture vessels. The experiment was continued for 15?days after addition of the inorganic nutrients such as nitrate, phosphate, and silicate. During most of the experimental period, a minor increase in phytoplankton biomass was noted, probably because of low irradiance, an increase in phytoplankton biomass was observed at the end of the experiment. Flow cytometric and microscopic observations revealed that this increase was because of Chrysochromulina sp. (Haptophyceae). The growth of Chrysochromulina sp. was most obvious in the control vessel, and tended to be obscured by increasing pCO₂ (decrease in pH), indicating the possibility that ocean acidification inhibits the growth of specific phytoplankton groups, for example Chrysochromulina sp. Production of particulate organic nitrogen (PON), determined by the ¹⁵N tracer method, also diminished under acidified conditions compared with that at the current level.     

Petrology of the Yugu peridotites in the Gyeonggi Massif,South Korea: Implications for its origin and hydration process

Peridotites exposed in the Yugu area in the Gyeonggi Massif, South Korea, near the boundary with the Okcheon Belt, exhibit mylonitic to strongly porphyroclastic textures, and are mostly spinel lherzolites. Subordinate dunites, harzburgites, and websterites are associated with the lherzolites. Amphiboles, often zoned from hornblende in the core to tremolite in the rim, are found only as neoblasts. Porphyroclasts have recorded equilibrium temperatures of about 1000°C, whereas neoblasts denote lower temperatures, about 800°C. Olivines are Fo_90–91 in lherzolites and Fo₉₁ in a dunite and a harzburgite. The Cr# (= Cr/(Cr + Al) atomic ratio) of spinels varies together with the Fo of olivines, being from 0.1 to 0.3 in lherzolites and around 0.5 in the dunite and harzburgite. The Na₂O content of clinopyroxene porphyroclasts is relatively low, around 0.3 to 0.5 wt% in the most fertile lherzolite. The Yugu peridotites are similar in porphyroclast mineral chemistry not to continental spinel peridotites but to sub‐arc or abyssal peridotites. Textural and mineralogical characteristics indicate the successive cooling with hydration from the upper mantle to crustal conditions for the Yugu peridotites. Almost all clinopyroxenes and amphiboles show the same U‐shaped rare earth element (REE) patterns although the level is up to ten times higher for the latter. The hydration was associated with enrichment in light REE, resulting from either a slab‐derived fluid or a fluid circulating in the crust. The mantle‐wedge or abyssal peridotites were emplaced into the continental crust as the Yugu peridotite body during collision of continents to form a high‐pressure metamorphic belt in the Gyeonggi Massif. The peridotites from the Gyeonggi Massif exhibit lower‐pressure equilibration than peridotites, with or without garnets, from the Dabie–Sulu Collision Belt, China, which is possibly a westward extension of the Gyeonggi Massif.     

Organic facies and geochemical aspects in Neogene neritic sediments of the Takafu syncline area of central Japan: Paleoenvironmental and sedimentological reconstructions

Abstract Organic petrological observations of kerogen macerals and organic geochemical analyses of carbon isotopes of kerogen macerals and biomarkers were conducted on Neogene neritic sediments of the Takafu syncline area of central Japan. The Senmi, Sakainomiya and Lower Shigarami Formations in that area were deposited at the neritic provinces on the southern edge of the paleo‐Japan Sea during the Late Miocene to Early Pliocene. Sedimentary organic matter in these formations was almost terrigenous in origin. Changes in kerogen maceral compositions reflect sedimentological and tectonic histories evaluated in previous studies from sedimentary facies and paleontology. It was found that carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C) of kerogen macerals increased from ?28‰ to ?25‰ from the Sakainomiya to the lower part of the Lower Shigarami Formations. The cause of that increase was presumably the expansion of C₄ plants into southwest Japan. The timing was concordant with that of the expansion of C₄ plant grasslands in East Asia. The oxicity (oxic to anoxic) conditions of sea bottoms evaluated from pristane/phytane ratios varied. Particularly, in the lower part of the Senmi Formation, layers in which no steroid biomarkers could be detected were found, and had presumably formed under oxic conditions when strong biodegradation had occurred. Concentrations of regular (C₂₇–C₂₉) steranes and dinosteranes were higher in the Sakainomiya and Lower Shigarami Formations. This indicates that dinoflagellates‐dominant primary productions were higher at those stages. In addition, concentrations of diatomaceous biomarkers such as C₂₆ norsterane increased from the Lower Shigarami Formation, thus adding diatoms to the major producers. Furthermore, similar associations between the increases of δ¹³C values of kerogen macerals and concentrations of diatomaceous biomarkers were observed in the Takafu syncline area. Thus, the expansion of C₄ plants was possibly associated with the high production of diatom in the shallow‐marine areas of the paleo‐Japan Sea during the Neogene Period.     

Contemporary Deposition and Long-Term Accumulation of Sediment and Nutrients by Tidal Freshwater Forested Wetlands Impacted by Sea Level Rise

Contemporary deposition (artificial marker horizon, 3.5 years) and long-term accumulation rates (²¹⁰Pb profiles, ~150 years) of sediment and associated carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) were measured in wetlands along the tidal Savannah and Waccamaw rivers in the southeastern USA. Four sites along each river spanned an upstream-to-downstream salinification gradient, from upriver tidal freshwater forested wetland (TFFW), through moderately and highly salt-impacted forested wetlands, to oligohaline marsh downriver. Contemporary deposition rates (sediment, C, N, and P) were greatest in oligohaline marsh and lowest in TFFW along both rivers. Greater rates of deposition in oligohaline and salt-stressed forested wetlands were associated with a shift to greater clay and metal content that is likely associated with a change from low availability of watershed-derived sediment to TFFW and to greater availability of a coastal sediment source to oligohaline wetlands. Long-term accumulation rates along the Waccamaw River had the opposite spatial pattern compared to contemporary deposition, with greater rates in TFFW that declined to oligohaline marsh. Long-term sediment and elemental mass accumulation rates also were 3–9× lower than contemporary deposition rates. In comparison to other studies, sediment and associated nutrient accumulation in TFFW are lower than downriver/estuarine freshwater, oligohaline, and salt marshes, suggesting a reduced capacity for surface sedimentation (short-term) as well as shallow soil processes (long-term sedimentation) to offset sea level rise in TFFW. Nonetheless, their potentially large spatial extent suggests that TFFW have a large impact on the transport and fate of sediment and nutrients in tidal rivers and estuaries.     

Towards medium-term (order of months) morphodynamic modelling of the Teign estuary, UK

The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.     

Glacial conditions that contribute to the regeneration of Fountain Glacier proglacial icing,Bylot Island,Canada

Proglacial icings are one of the most common forms of extrusive ice found in the Canadian Arctic. However, the icing adjacent to Fountain Glacier, Bylot Island, is unique due to its annual cycle of growth and decay, and perennial existence without involving freezing point depression of water due to chemical characteristics. Its regeneration depends on the availability of subglacial water and on the balance between ice accretion and hydro‐thermal erosion. The storage and conduction of the glacial meltwater involved in the accretion of the icing were analyzed by conducting topographic and ground penetrating radar surveys in addition to the modelling of the subglacial drainage network and the thermal characteristics of the glacier base. The reflection power analysis of the geophysical data shows that some areas of the lower ablation zone have a high accumulation of liquid water, particularly beneath the centre part of the glacier along the main supraglacial stream. A dielectric permittivity model of the glacier – sediment interface suggests that a considerable portion of the glacier is warm based; allowing water to flow through unfrozen subglacial sediments towards the proglacial outwash plain. All these glacier‐related characteristics contribute to the annual regeneration of the proglacial icing and allow for portions of the icing to be perennial. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment Accretion in Tidal Freshwater Forests and Oligohaline Marshes of the Waccamaw and Savannah Rivers,USA

Sediment accretion was measured at four sites in varying stages of forest-to-marsh succession along a fresh-to-oligohaline gradient on the Waccamaw River and its tributary Turkey Creek (Coastal Plain watersheds, South Carolina) and the Savannah River (Piedmont watershed, South Carolina and Georgia). Sites included tidal freshwater forests, moderately salt-impacted forests at the freshwater–oligohaline transition, highly salt-impacted forests, and oligohaline marshes. Sediment accretion was measured by use of feldspar marker pads for 2.5 year; accessory information on wetland inundation, canopy litterfall, herbaceous production, and soil characteristics were also collected. Sediment accretion ranged from 4.5 mm year^?1 at moderately salt-impacted forest on the Savannah River to 19.1 mm year^?1 at its relict, highly salt-impacted forest downstream. Oligohaline marsh sediment accretion was 1.5–2.5 times greater than in tidal freshwater forests. Overall, there was no significant difference in accretion rate between rivers with contrasting sediment loads. Accretion was significantly higher in hollows than on hummocks in tidal freshwater forests. Organic sediment accretion was similar to autochthonous litter production at all sites, but inorganic sediment constituted the majority of accretion at both marshes and the Savannah River highly salt-impacted forest. A strong correlation between inorganic sediment accumulation and autochthonous litter production indicated a positive feedback between herbaceous plant production and allochthonous sediment deposition. The similarity in rates of sediment accretion and sea level rise in tidal freshwater forests indicates that these habitats may become permanently inundated if the rate of sea level rise increases.