Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Cairns

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)gave rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of naturalhazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. It waswidely recognised that in order to evaluate risk treatment strategies it was necessaryto `measure' the level of risk that already existed and the level of risk that would beencountered with the treatment strategy(s) in place.This paper outlines the methodology developed under the AGSO (now GeoscienceAustralia) Cities Project to quantify the risk associated with storm tide inundation. It includes the methodology for `measuring' the level of community exposure to storm tide hazards and the methodology for `measuring' community vulnerability. The Far North Queensland city of Cairns is used as the case study to demonstrate the application of these methods.     

Treating the Risks in Cairns

Cairns is exposed to the well-known natural hazards oftropical cyclone, flood, stormsurge and thunderstorm, but is also exposed to thelesser-known hazards of landslip, earthquake and dam break flooding. Recommendations fortreating the risks associated with these hazards have been made that will involve amulti-disciplinary approach to treatment strategies, require the cooperation of allthree levels of government, involve public utility authorities and private enterprise andinvolve the community as a whole.This paper summarises the suggested mitigation treatmentoptions, presented to the Cairns City Council and identified in the LocalGovernment Disaster Mitigation Project conducted in Cairns in 1999/2000 by theQueensland Department of Emergency Services.     

Concentrations of 137Cs, 90Sr, 108m Ag, 239+240 Pu and atom ratio of 240Pu/239Pu in tanner crabs, Chionoecetes japonicus and Chionoecetes opilio collected around Japan

The anthropogenic radionuclides, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁰Sr, ^108mAg, ^239+240Pu, were measured in two Chionoecetes species, red queen crab (Chionoecetes japonicus) and snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) collected around Japan during 1996–2007. There was no increase in the concentrations of these radionuclides and no large variation of the atom ratio of ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu during this research period. These results indicated that the source of the radionuclides was not the radioactive wastes dumped by the former USSR and Russia and originated from past nuclear weapon tests. The higher atom ratio in the crab species than that from global fallout would be contributed by the Pacific Proving Grounds close-in fallout. The variability of the concentration of radionuclides in the crab species would result from the variability of the composition and quantity in the diet. However, the decrease in the concentration of radionuclides with sampling depth would depend on the concentration in the seawater and diet.     

An Issue of Permanence: Assessing the Effectiveness of Temporary Carbon Storage

In this paper, we present a method to quantify the effectiveness of carbon mitigation options taking into account the `permanence' of the emissions reduction. While the issue of permanence is most commonly associated with a `leaky' carbon sequestration reservoir, we argue that this is an issue that applies to just about all carbon mitigation options. The appropriate formulation of this problem is to ask `what is the value of temporary storage?' Valuing temporary storage can be represented as a familiar economic problem, with explicitly stated assumptions about carbon prices and the discount rate. To illustrate the methodology, we calculate the sequestration effectiveness for injecting CO₂ at various depths in the ocean. Analysis is performed for three limiting carbon price assumptions: constant carbon prices (assumes constant marginal damages), carbon prices rise at the discount rate (assumes efficient allocation of a cumulative emissions cap without a backstop technology), and carbon prices first rise at the discount rate but become constant after a given time (assumes introduction of a backstop technology). Our results show that the value of relatively deep ocean carbon sequestration can be nearly equivalent to permanent sequestration if marginal damages (i.e., carbon prices) remain constant or if there is a backstop technology that caps the abatement cost in the not too distant future. On the other hand, if climate damages are such as to require a fixed cumulative emissions limit and there is no backstop, then a storage option with even very slow leakage has limited value relative to a permanent storage option.     

Assessing the potential impact of climate change on the UK’s electricity network

We investigate how weather affects the UK’s electricity network, by examining past data of weather-related faults on the transmission and distribution networks. By formalising the current relationship between weather-related faults and weather, we use climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) to quantitatively assess how the frequency of these faults may change in the future. This study found that the incidences of both lightning and solar heat faults are projected to increase in the future. There is evidence that the conditions that cause flooding faults may increase in the future, but a reduction cannot be ruled out. Due to the uncertainty associated with future wind projections, there is no clear signal associated with the future frequency of wind and gale faults, however snow, sleet and blizzard faults are projected to decrease due to a reduction in the number of snow days.     

Condensed water in tropical cyclone “Oliver”, 8 February 1993

On February 8, 1993, the NASA DC-8 aircraft profiled from 10,000 to 37,000 feet (3.1–11.3 km) pressure altitude in a stratified section of tropical cyclone “Oliver” over the Coral Sea northeast of Australia. Size, shape and phase of cloud and precipitation particles were measured with a 2-D Greyscale probe. Cloud/ precipitation particles changed from liquid to ice as soon as the freezing level was reached near 17,000 feet (5.2 km) pressure altitude. The cloud was completely glaciated at −5°C. There was no correlation between ice particle habit and ambient temperature. In the liquid phase, the precipitation-cloud drop concentration was 4.0 × 10³ m⁻³, the geometric mean diameter D_g=0.5−0.7 mm, and the liquid water content 0.7−1.9 g m⁻³. The largest particles anywhere in the cloud, dominated by fused dendrites at concentrations similar to that of raindrops (2.5 × 10³ m⁻³) but a higher condensed water content (5.4 g m⁻³ estimated) were found in the mixed phase; condensed water is removed very effectively from the mixed layer due to high settling velocities of the large mixed particles. The highest number concentration (4.9 × 10⁴ m⁻³), smallest size (D_g=0.3−0.4 mm), largest surface area (up to 2.6 × 10² cm² m⁻³ at 0.4−1.0 g m⁻³ of condensate) existed in the ice phase at the coldest temperature (−40°C) at 35,000 feet (10.7 km). Each cloud contained aerosol (haze particles) in addition to cloud particles. The aerosol total surface area exceeded that of the cirrus particles at the coldest temperature. Thus, aerosols must play a significant role in the upscattering of solar radiation. Light extinction (6.2 km⁻¹) and backscatter (0.8 sr⁻¹ km⁻¹) was highest in the coldest portion of the cirrus cloud at the highest altitude.     

Measurement of methane flux over an evergreen coniferous forest canopy using a relaxed eddy accumulation system with tuneable diode laser spectroscopy detection

Very few studies have conducted long-term observations of methane (CH₄) flux over forest canopies. In this study, we continuously measured CH₄ fluxes over an evergreen coniferous (Japanese cypress) forest canopy throughout 1?year, using a micrometeorological relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) system with tuneable diode laser spectroscopy (TDLS) detection. The Japanese cypress forest, which is a common forest type in warm-temperate Asian monsoon regions with a wet summer, switched seasonally between a sink and source of CH₄ probably because of competition by methanogens and methanotrophs, which are both influenced by soil conditions (e.g., soil temperature and soil moisture). At hourly to daily timescales, the CH₄ fluxes were sensitive to rainfall, probably because CH₄ emission increased and/or absorption decreased during and after rainfall. The observed canopy-scale fluxes showed complex behaviours beyond those expected from previous plot-scale measurements and the CH₄ fluxes changed from sink to source and vice versa.     

Atmospheric effects in the remote sensing of phytoplankton pigments

We investigate the accuracy with which relevant atmospheric parameters must be estimated to derive phytoplankton pigment concentrations (chlorophyll a plus phaeophytin a ) of a given accuracy from measurements of the ocean's apparent spectral radiance at satellite altitudes. The analysis is limited to an instrument having the characteristics of the Coastal Zone Color Scanner scheduled to orbit the Earth on NIMBUS-G. A phytoplankton pigment algorithm is developed which relates the pigment concentration (C) to the three ratios of upwelling radiance just beneath the sea surface which can be formed from the wavelengths () 440, 520 and 550 nm. The pigment algorithm explains from 94 to 98% of the variance in log₁₀ C over three orders of magnitude in pigment concentration. This is combined with solutions to the radiative transfer equation to simulate the ocean's apparent spectral radiance at satellite altitudes as a function of C and the optical properties of the aerosol, the optical depth of which is assumed to be proportioned to ^-n . A specific atmospheric correction algorithm, based on the assumption that the ocean is totally absorbing at 670 nm, is then applied to the simulated spectral radiance, from which the pigment concentration is derived. Comparison between the true and derived values of C show that: (1) n is considerably more important than the actual aerosol optical thickness; (2) for C 0299-1 0.2 g l^-1 acceptable concentrations can be determined as long as n is not overestimated; (3) as C increases, the accuracy with which n must be estimated, for a given relative accuracy in C, also increases; and (4) for C greater than about 0.5 g 1^-1, the radiance at 440 nm becomes essentially useless in determining C. The computations also suggest that if separate pigment algorithms are used for C 1gl^-1 and C 1 gl^-1, accuracies considerably better than ±± in log C can be obtained for C 1 g l^-1 with only a coarse estimate of n, while for C 10 gl^-1, this accuracy can be achieved only with very good estimates of n.Contribution No. 387 from the NOAA/ERL Pacific Environmental Laboratory.On leave from Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida.     

Mechanisms of tropical precipitation biases in climate models

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the possible causes for inter-model spread in tropical zonal-mean precipitation pattern, which is divided into hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric modes...