Evaluation of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over Guyana

In the present study, diagnostic studies were undertaken using station-based rainfall data sets of selected stations of Guyana to understand the variability of rainfall. The multidecadal variation in rainfall of coastal station Georgetown and inland station Timehri has shown that the rainfall variability was less during the May–July (20–30%) of primary wet season compared to the December--January (60–70%) of second wet season. The rainfall analysis of Georgetown based on data series from 1916 to 2007 shows that El Niño/La Niña has direct relation with monthly mean rainfall of Guyana. The impact is more predominant during the second wet season December--January. A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model was made operational to generate real-time forecasts up to 84 h based on 00 UTC global forecast system (GFS), NCEP initial condition. The model real-time rainfall forecast during July 2010 evaluation has shown a reasonable skill of the forecast model in predicting the heavy rainfall events and major circulation features for day-to-day operational forecast guidance. In addition to the operational experimental forecast, as part of model validation, a few sensitivity experiments are also conducted with the combination of two cloud cumulus (Kain--Fritsch (KF) and Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ)) and three microphysical schemes (Ferrier et al. WSM-3 simple ice scheme and Lin et al.) for heavy rainfall event occurred during 28–30 May 2010 over coastal Guyana and tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’ formed during 25 August–04 September 2010 over east Caribbean Sea. It was observed that there are major differences in the simulations of heavy rainfall event among the cumulus schemes, in spite of using the same initial and boundary conditions and model configuration. Overall, it was observed that the combination of BMJ and WSM-3 has shown qualitatively close to the observed heavy rainfall event even though the predicted amounts are less. In the case of tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’, the forecast track in all the six experiments based on 00 UTC of 28 August 2010 initial conditions for the forecast up to 84 h has shown that the combination of KF cumulus and Ferrier microphysics scheme has shown less track errors compared to other combinations. The overall average position errors for all the six experiments taken together work out to 103 km in 24, 199 km in 48, 197 km in 72 and 174 km in 84 h.     

Micro-climate influence on reference evapotranspiration estimates in wetlands

Temperature and relative humidity measurements were made within and outside a lowland fen in eastern England during 2009 and 2010. Summer temperatures were found to be on average 0.24°C lower within the fen than outside, whilst summer vapour pressures were found to be on average 0.074 kPa higher within the fen. In contrast, winter temperatures were found to be higher within the fen by an average of 0.03°C. These differences may be expected to influence evapotranspiration estimates derived using data from each of the sites. The influence of the location of meteorological measurements on evapotranspiration estimates was therefore evaluated. The existence of a wetland microclimate results in up to a 7% reduction in annual reference evapotranspiration compared to a site surrounded by arable farmland only 5.5 km away.     

Effects of cyclonic mesoscale eddies on the marine ecosystem in the Kuroshio Extension region using an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biological model

Effects of mesoscale eddies on the marine ecosystem in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region are investigated using an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biological model. The model captures the seasonal and intra-seasonal variability of chlorophyll distribution associated with the mesoscale eddies, front variability, Kuroshio meanders, and upwelling. The model also reproduces the observed interannual variability of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) in the KE region along a zonal band of 32–34°N from 2002 to 2006. The distribution of high surface chlorophyll corresponds to low SSHA. Cyclonic eddies are found to detach from the KE jet near 150°E and 158°E and propagate westward. The westward propagating cyclonic eddies lift the nutrient-rich thermocline into the euphotic zone and maintain high levels of chlorophyll in summer. In the subsurface layer, the pattern in chlorophyll is influenced by both lateral and vertical advection. In winter, convection inside the eddy entrains high levels of nutrients into the mixed layer, increasing production, and resulting in high chlorophyll concentration throughout the surface mixed layer. There is significant interannual variability in both the cyclonic eddy activity and the surface phytoplankton bloom south of the KE jet, although whether or not there is a causal link is unclear.     

Last glacial aggradation and postglacial sediment production from the non-glacial Waipaoa and Waimata catchments, Hikurangi Margin, North Island, New Zealand

The sediment flux generated by postglacial channel incision has been calculated for the 2150 km², non-glacial, Waipaoa catchment located on the tectonically active Hikurangi Margin, eastern North Island, New Zealand. Sediment production both at a sub-catchment scale and for the Waipaoa catchment as a whole was calculated by first using the tensioned spline method within ARC MAP to create an approximation of the aggradational Waipaoa-1 surface (contemporaneous with the Last Glacial Maximum), and second using grid calculator functions in the GIS to subtract the modern day surface from the Waipaoa-1 surface. The Waipaoa-1 surface was mapped using stereo aerial photography, and global positioning technology fixed the position of individual terrace remnants in the landscape. The recent discovery of Kawakawa Tephra within Waipaoa-1 aggradation gravels in this catchment demonstrates that aggradation was coincidental with or began before the deposition of this 22 600 ¹⁴C-year-old tephra and, using the stratigraphic relationship of Rerewhakaaitu Tephra, the end of aggradation is dated at ca 15 000 ¹⁴C years (ca 18 000 cal. years BP). The construction of the Waipaoa-1 terrace is considered to be synchronous and broadly correlated with aggradation elsewhere in the North Island and northern South Island, indicating that aggradation ended at the same time over a wide area. Subsequent downcutting, a manifestation of base-level lowering following a switch to postglacial incision at the end of glacial-age aggradation, points to a significant Southern Hemisphere climatic warming occurring soon after ca 15 000 ¹⁴C years (ca 18 000 cal. years BP) during the Older Dryas interval. Elevation differences between the Waipaoa-1 (c.15 ka) terrace and the level of maximum channel incision (i.e. before aggradation since the turn of the 20th century) suggest about 50% of the topographic relief within headwater reaches of the Waipaoa catchment has been formed in postglacial times. The postglacial sediment flux generated by channel incision from Waipaoa catchment is of the order of 9.5 km³, of which ~ 6.6 km³ is stored within the confines of the Poverty Bay floodplain. Thus, although the postglacial period represented a time of high terrigenous sediment generation and delivery, only ~ 30% of the sediment generated by channel incision from Waipaoa catchment probably reached the marine shelf and slope of the Hikurangi Margin during this time. The smaller adjacent Waimata catchment probably contributed an additional 2.6 km³ to the same depocentre to give a total postglacial sediment contribution to the shelf and beyond of ~ 5.5 km³. Sediment generated by postglacial channel incision represents only ~ 25% of the total sediment yield from this landscape with ~ 75% of the estimated volume of the postglacial storage offshore probably derived from hillslope erosion processes following base-level fall at times when sediment yield from these catchments exceeded storage.     

Impact of the equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature on the tropical Pacific in a CGCM

Many coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) suffer from serious model bias in the zonal gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Atlantic. The bias of the equatorial Atlantic SST (EASST) may affect the interannual variability of the equatorial Atlantic, which in turn may influence the state of the tropical Pacific. In this paper we investigate the impact of the bias and the interannual variability of the EASST on the tropical Pacific in a CGCM. To determine the impact of the interannual variability of the EASST on the tropical Pacific, we compare a run in a fully coupled mode (CTL run) and a run in which the EASST is nudged toward the climatological monthly mean of the SST in the CTL run, but full air-sea coupling is allowed elsewhere (AT_m run). We find that, when the interannual variability of the EASST is excluded, the thermocline depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific is deepened, and the amplitude of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation is reduced by 30 % compared to the CTL run. The impact of the bias of the EASST on the tropical Pacific is investigated by comparing the AT_m run and a run in which the EASST is nudged toward the observed climatological monthly mean SST (AT_o run). It is found that, when the bias of the EASST is removed (i.e. AT_o run), the Gill–Matsuno type response to the warm SST anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic induces low-level cyclonic anomalies in the eastern South Pacific, which leads to a deeper thermocline and colder SST in the South Pacific as compared to AT_m. The colder SST in the South Pacific reduces the precipitation along the South Pacific convergence zone. Our results of the model experiments demonstrate the importance of the EASST to the tropical Pacific climate.     

Holocene evolution of an estuary on a tectonically rising coast: the Pakarae River locality, eastern North Island, New Zealand

Estuarine and beach deposits in the vicinity of the present coastline at Pakarae River record the infilling of an estuary and subsequent development of a sequence of seven marine terraces during Holocene time.

At the maximum of the last glaciation about 18,000 years ago the shoreline at the ancestral Pakarae River was approximately 20 km east of the present shoreline. By about 9000 years BP the sea had transgressed across most of that coastal plain to lie within a few hundred metres of the base of the present coastal hills. Seventeen radiocarbon ages from estuarine deposits record the overall rise in post-glacial sea level, but in the period c. 9500-7000 yrs BP there are reversals to the overall rising trend. Between 9500 and 8500 yrs BP there appears to have been a eustatic fall in sea level of at least 4 m. This observation is supported by data from several other localities around New Zealand. Maximum transgression occurred about 6500–7000 yrs BP when the sea reached the base of hillslopes and an extensive estuary existed behind a barrier bar.

Since that time the barrier bar disappeared, probably due to stranding in an uplift event, and the coastline advanced progressively outward toward its present position. Coastal progradation (sea level regression) and subsequent erosion have occurred in association with episodic large earthquakes at about 6700, 5400, 3910, 2450, 1570, 1000 and 600 yrs BP. The present distribution of terraces has been influenced by coastal erosion, which has removed all trace of some terraces from some areas, and river erosion has modified the marine terraces near the river.     

Practices in disaster mitigation in the case of the 2015 Typhoon Koppu debris flows in Nueva Ecija,Philippines

Natural Hazards - In October 2015, heavy rains brought by Typhoon Koppu generated landslides and debris flows in the municipalities of Bongabon, Laur, and Gabaldon in Nueva Ecija province....     

A Causality-guided Statistical Approach for Modeling Extreme Mei-yu Rainfall Based on Known Large-scale Modes——A Pilot Study

Extreme Mei-yu rainfall(MYR) can cause catastrophic impacts to the economic development and societal welfare in China. While significant improvements have been made in climate models, they often struggle to simulate local-to-regional extreme rainfall(e.g., MYR). Yet, large-scale climate modes(LSCMs) are relatively well represented in climate models.Since there exists a close relationship between MYR and various LSCMs, it might be possible to develop causality-guided statistical models for MYR pr...     

Applying Quantitative Molecular Tools for Virus Transport Studies: Opportunities and Challenges

Bacteriophages have been used in soil column studies for the last several decades as surrogates to study the fate and transport behavior of enteric viruses in groundwater. However, recent studies have shown that the transport behavior of bacteriophages and enteric viruses in porous media can be very different. The next generation of virus transport science must therefore provide more data on mobility of enteric viruses and the relationship between transport behaviors of enteric viruses and bacteriophages. To achieve this new paradigm, labor intensity devoted to enteric virus quantification method must be reduced. Recent studies applied quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to column filtration experiments to study the transport behavior of human adenovirus (HAdV) in porous media under a variety of conditions. A similar approach can be used to study the transport of other enteric viruses such as norovirus. Analyzing the column samples with both qPCR and culture assays and applying multiplex qPCR to study cotransport behavior of more than one virus will provide information to under‐explored areas in virus transport science. Both nucleic acid extraction kits and one‐step lysis protocols have been used in these column studies to extract viral nucleic acid for qPCR quantification. The pros and cons of both methods are compared herein and solutions for overcoming problems are suggested. As better understanding of the transport behavior of enteric viruses is clearly needed, we strongly advocate for application of rapid molecular tools in future studies as well as optimization of protocols to overcome their current limitations.