The analysis and impact of simulated high-resolution surface observations in addition to radar data for convective storms with an ensemble Kalman filter

Observing system simulation experiments are performed using an ensemble Kalman filter to investigate the impact of surface observations in addition to radar data on convective storm analysis and forecasting. A multi-scale procedure is used in which different covariance localization radii are used for radar and surface observations. When the radar is far enough away from the main storm so that the low level data coverage is poor, a clear positive impact of surface observations is achieved when the network spacing is 20?km or smaller. The impact of surface data increases quasi-linearly with decreasing surface network spacing until the spacing is close to the grid interval of the truth simulation. The impact of surface data is sustained or even amplified during subsequent forecasts when their impact on the analysis is significant. When microphysics-related model error is introduced, the impact of surface data is reduced but still evidently positive, and the impact also increases with network density. Through dynamic flow-dependent background error covariance, the surface observations not only correct near-surface errors, but also errors at the mid- and upper levels. State variables different from observed are also positively impacted by the observations in the analysis.     

Impact of vertical mixing induced by small vertical scale structures above and within the equatorial thermocline on the tropical Pacific in a CGCM

Oceanic vertical mixing is known to influence the state of the equatorial ocean which affects the climate system, including the amplitude of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Recent measurements of ocean currents at high vertical resolution capture numerous small vertical scale structures (SVSs) within and above the equatorial thermocline that contribute significantly to vertical mixing but which are not sufficiently resolved by coarse resolution ocean models. We investigate the impact of the vertical mixing induced by the SVSs on the mean state and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific by using a coupled general circulation model. The vertical mixing induced by the SVSs is represented as an elevated vertical diffusivity from the surface down to the 20 °C isotherm depth, a proxy for the depth of the thermocline. We investigate different forms for the elevated mixing. It is found that the SVS-induced mixing strongly affect the mean state of the ocean leading to a warming of sea surface temperature (SST) and associated deepening and sharpening of the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific. We find that the SST warming induced by the elevated mixing is further strengthened through the Bjerknes feedback and SST-shortwave flux feedback. We also find a reduction in the number of large amplitude ENSO events and in certain cases an increase in the skewness of ENSO.     

A prehistoric lahar-dammed lake and eruption of Mount Pinatubo described in a Philippine aborigine legend

The prehistoric eruptions of Mount Pinatubo have followed a cycle: centuries of repose terminated by a caldera-forming eruption with large pyroclastic flows; a post-eruption aftermath of rain-triggered lahars in surrounding drainages and dome-building that fills the caldera; and then another long quiescent period. During and after the eruptions lahars descending along volcano channels may block tributaries from watersheds beyond Pinatubo, generating natural lakes. Since the 1991 eruption, the Mapanuepe River valley in the southwestern sector of the volcano has been the site of a large lahar-dammed lake. Geologic evidence indicates that similar lakes have occupied this site at least twice before. An Ayta legend collected decades before Mount Pinatubo was recognized as a volcano describes what is probably the younger of these lakes, and the caldera-forming eruption that destroyed it.     

Geochemical evidence for sundering of the West Mariana arc in miocene ash from the Parece Vela Basin

Glass and mineral fragments from discrete volcanic ash layers were sampled from DSDP/IPOD Site 450 in the Parece Vela Basin, Philippine Sea and analyzed by electron microprobe. The ashes are interpreted as eruptive products of the adjacent West Mariana arc system between 25 and 14 Ma B.P., and have compositions between basaltic andesite and rhyolite, and rarely, boninite. ‘Continuous’ chemical trends appear to reflect mixing of mafic and silicic magmas. ‘Discontinuous’ trends between these end-members are relatively few, and are consistent with ‘liquid lines’ produced by fractional crystallization. Andesitic tephra become progressively richer in MgO and CaO through the middle Miocene, while boninite appears towards the end of the sequence, between 14 and 15 Ma B.P. Coeval rhyolitic glasses become richer in K₂O and Na₂O, with maximum concentrations at about 15 Ma B.P. Chronologic changes in fractionation type and composition of parent magmas are interpreted to reflect the subaerial volcanic evolution of the West Mariana arc. The appearance of boninite is believed to signal early stages of arc sundering, and corresponds temporally with regional uplift of the sea floor above the carbonate compensation depth, precursor to a new pulse of back-arc spreading.     

Sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone size to microphysics schemes

The sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone(TC) size to microphysics schemes is studied using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF). Six TCs during the 2013 western North Pacific typhoon season and three mainstream microphysics schemes–Ferrier(FER), WRF Single-Moment 5-class(WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment6-class(WSM6)–are investigated. The results consistently show that the simulated TC track is not sensitive to the choice of microphysics scheme in the early simulation, especially in the open ocean. However, the sensitivity is much greater for TC intensity and inner-core size. The TC intensity and size simulated using the WSM5 and WSM6 schemes are respectively higher and larger than those using the FER scheme in general, which likely results from more diabatic heating being generated outside the eyewall in rainbands. More diabatic heating in rainbands gives higher inflow in the lower troposphere and higher outflow in the upper troposphere, with higher upward motion outside the eyewall. The lower-tropospheric inflow would transport absolute angular momentum inward to spin up tangential wind predominantly near the eyewall, leading to the increment in TC intensity and size(the inner-core size, especially). In addition, the inclusion of graupel microphysics processes(as in WSM6) may not have a significant impact on the simulation of TC track, intensity and size.     

Maintenance of the mean kinetic energy in the global ocean by the barotropic and baroclinic energy routes: the roles of JEBAR and Ekman dynamics

In order to determine the maintenance mechanisms of the currents of the global ocean, this study investigates the budget of the annual mean kinetic energy (KE) in a high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) semi-global ocean simulation. The analysis is based on a separation of the mean KE using the barotropic (i.e., depth-averaged) and baroclinic (the residual) components of velocity. The barotropic and baroclinic KEs dominate in higher and lower latitudes, respectively, with their global average being comparable to each other. The working rates of wind forcing on the barotropic and baroclinic circulations in the global ocean are 243 and 747 gigawatts, respectively. This study presents at least three new results for the budget of the barotropic KE. Firstly, an energy diagram is rederived to show that the work of the barotropic component of the horizontal pressure gradient (HPG) is connected to the work related to the joint effect of baroclinicity and bottom relief (JEBAR), and then to the budget of potential energy (PE). Secondly, the model analysis shows that the globally averaged work of the barotropic HPG (which is connected to the work related to JEBAR and then to the budget of the PE) is nearly zero. This indicates that the wind- and buoyancy-induced barotropic circulations in the global ocean are of the same strength with opposite sign. Thirdly, it is found that the work of the wind forcing on the barotropic component of the simulated Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is canceled by the combined effect, in equal measure, of the work of the barotropic HPG and the work of dissipative processes for mean KE. This result makes a significant contribution to the discussion on the depth-integrated momentum balance of the ACC. The barotropic KE is dissipated by the effects of bottom frictional stress, lateral frictional stress, and the Reynolds stress, of which more than half is attributed to an unexpectedly large contribution from biharmonic horizontal friction. Future studies should pay more attention to the role of biharmonic friction used in high-resolution numerical models.     

Tee-SVX: Enhanced Oil Flow Rate in Solvent Vapor Extraction Process

The production rate in classical vapor extraction (VAPEX) is far too low for the process to be considered commercially viable. This is largely because the classical process utilizes forces of buoyancy and mass transfer by diffusion and dispersion to distribute the solvent and gravity to drain the diluted oil to the producer. This article presents a new well pattern Tee-SVX which may enhance the oil-flow rate by two to ten times over that of the classical approach. In the new well pattern, additional horizontal injectors, perpendicular to the injector and the producer in Classical VAPEX, are placed in the topmost region of a reservoir. The oil-rate-enhancement mechanism for this new well pattern involves two features. First, the operation pressure of the top injectors is set slightly higher than the bottom injector pressure. This facilitates a downward driving force to assist gravity drainage of diluted oil to the producer. Second, the supplementary injectors generate an additional diluted oil profile perpendicular to the diluted oil profile of the Classical VAPEX process. Therefore, in the new well pattern, the heavy oil is solvent contacted and diluted in both vertical planes (one plane perpendicular to and the other parallel to the horizontal producer), whereas in Classical VAPEX, the heavy oil is diluted in only one. A series of numerical simulations were conducted to evaluate this process. In order to obtain reliable evaluation results, the numerical dispersion was eliminated through extrapolating the simulation results at different grid sizes to an infinitesimal grid size (Δy → 0). The simulation results suggest that the oil-flow rate can be enhanced two to ten times greater than that with Classical VAPEX, depending on the well spacing of the top injectors. For example, for a well spacing of the top horizontal injectors of 120 m, the oil-flow rate from the original producers will be 5.5 times higher than that of Classical VAPEX. For thinner reservoirs, the Tee-SVX can enhance the oil-production rate higher compared with Classical VAPEX. For reservoirs with a small gas cap, Lateral-SVX with vertical injector is quite effective.