Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

Revisiting the death of geography in the era of Big Data: the friction of distance in cyberspace and real space

Many scholars have argued that the importance of geographic proximity in human interactions has been diminished by the use of the Internet, while others disagree with this argument. Studies have noted the distance decay effect in both cyberspace and real space, showing that interactions occur with an inverse relationship between the number of interactions and the distance between the locations of the interactors. However, these studies rarely provide strong evidence to show the influence of distance on interactions in cyberspace, nor do they quantify the differences in the amount of friction of distance between cyberspace and real space. To fill this gap, this study used massive amounts of social media data (Twitter) to compare the influence of distance decay on human interactions between cyberspace and real space in a quantitative manner. To estimate the distance decay effect in both cyberspace and real space, the distance decay function of interactions in each space was modeled. Estimating the distance decay in cyberspace in this study can help predict the degree of information flow across space through social media. Measuring how far ideas can be diffused through social media is useful for users of location-based services, policy advocates, public health officials, and political campaigners.     

The age of Wolfe Creek meteorite crater (Kandimalal), Western Australia

Wolfe Creek crater lies in northwestern Australia at the edge of the Great Sandy Desert. Together with Meteor Crater, it is one of the two largest craters on Earth from which meteorite fragments have been recovered. The age of the impact is poorly constrained and unpublished data places the event at about 300,000 years ago. In comparison, Meteor Crater is well constrained by exposure dating. In this paper, we present new ages for Wolfe Creek Crater from exposure dating using the cosmogenic nuclides ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al, together with optically stimulated luminescence ages (OSL) on sand from a site created by the impact. We also present a new topographic survey of the crater using photogrammetry. The exposure ages range from ~86 to 128 ka. The OSL ages indicate that the age of the impact is most likely to be ~120 ka with a maximum age of 137 ka. Considering the geomorphic setting, the most likely age of the crater is 120 ± 9 ka. Last, we review the age of Meteor Crater in Arizona. Changes in production rates and scaling factors since the original dating work revise the impact age to 61.1 ± 4.8 ka, or ~20% older than previously reported.     

Examining the sensitivity of spatial scale in cellular automata Markov chain simulation of land use change

Understanding the spatial scale sensitivity of cellular automata is crucial for improving the accuracy of land use change simulation. We propose a framework based on a response surface method to comprehensively explore spatial scale sensitivity of the cellular automata Markov chain (CA-Markov) model, and present a hybrid evaluation model for expressing simulation accuracy that merges the strengths of the Kappa coefficient and of Contagion index. Three Landsat-Thematic Mapper remote sensing images of Wuhan in 1987, 1996, and 2005 were used to extract land use information. The results demonstrate that the spatial scale sensitivity of the CA-Markov model resulting from individual components and their combinations are both worthy of attention. The utility of our proposed hybrid evaluation model and response surface method to investigate the sensitivity has proven to be more accurate than the single Kappa coefficient method and more efficient than traditional methods. The findings also show that the CA-Markov model is more sensitive to neighborhood size than to cell size or neighborhood type considering individual component effects. Particularly, the bilateral and trilateral interactions between neighborhood and cell size result in a more remarkable scale effect than that of a single cell size.     

A New Wavelet Method for Identification of Eddies and Assessment of Incidents on Islands of the Eastern Caribbean

Using two dimensional continuous wavelet transforms, a novel method for identification of mesoscale eddies is presented to facilitate extraction of characteristics for area, amplitude, type, and location from maps of sea level anomalies. In comparison with the previously established growing method for eddy identification, it is found that the wavelet method identifies more than twice the number of eddies and is particularly better at resolving small eddies down to the 0.25 degree resolution of the data. Such research into eddy identification and tracking is significant to the assessment of eddies with potential to impact on coastlines of small islands. The method is applied to the identification of eddies on tracks towards islands of the Eastern Caribbean over 23?years. Spatial and temporal variation in rate of occurrence and magnitude is established. For Barbados there is an average of 9 anticyclonic incidents a year with maximum amplitude of typically 0.22?m in the dry seasons and 0.16?m in the wet seasons. Seasonal variation is reversed for the other islands with twice the number of anticyclonic incidents having maximum amplitudes of about 0.20?m annually.     

Mapping benthic habitat in regions of gradational substrata: An automated approach utilising geophysical,geological, and biological relationships

The relationship between acoustic backscatter, sediment characteristics and benthic habitat is examined using high-resolution sidescan sonar data collected at the Loch Linnhe artificial reef site on the west coast of Scotland. The site is typical for the continental shelf of NW Europe, with a mix of seabed environments from muddy to coarse, stony substrata on a 10–100 m length scale. A sidescan sonar mosaic was produced and classified according to derived backscatter parameters (mean, median and standard deviation of the backscatter values) using an unsupervised classification procedure. The accuracy of the final classified map was assessed by comparison with a ground-truthing survey in which the biological habitat was derived from underwater video footage. The sidescan correctly predicted seabed surface characteristics of observed biological habitat with 78% accuracy. A second, and more challenging test of the acoustic data to correctly predict biological habitat was made by comparing it with data from 21 grab sampling stations. These stations were divided into three groups using multivariate statistical techniques based on their backscatter properties. Benthic assemblage structure was found to be significantly distinct between the high and low, and the medium and low backscatter stations. There was a low to moderate but significant correlation between the multivariate patterns of acoustic backscatter, benthic assemblage structure, and particle size distribution. The work shows that even in areas with subtle and gradational changes in substratum, the sidescan was able to predict biological community with an acceptable accuracy.     

Environmental controls on phytoplankton community composition in the Thames plume, U.K.

The aim of this study was to investigate controls on the phytoplankton community composition and biogeochemistry of the estuarine plume zone of the River Thames, U.K. using an instrumented moored buoy for in situ measurements and preserved sample collection, and laboratory-based measurements from samples collected at the same site. Instrumentation on the moored buoy enabled high frequency measurements of a suite of environmental variables including in situ chlorophyll, water-column integrated irradiance, macronutrients throughout an annual cycle for 2001 e.g. nitrate and silicate, and phytoplankton biomass and species composition. The Thames plume region acts as a conduit for fluvial nutrients into the wider southern North Sea with typical winter concentrations of 45 μM nitrate, 17 μM silicate and 2 μM phosphate measured. The spring bloom resulted from water-column integrated irradiance increasing above 60 W h m^− 2 d^− 1 and was initially dominated by a diatom bloom mainly composed of Nitzschia sp. and Odontella sinesis. The spring bloom then switched after  30 days to become dominated by the flagellate Phaeocystis reaching a maximum chlorophyll concentration of 37.8 μg L^− 1. During the spring bloom there were high numbers of the heterotrophic dinoflagellates Gyrodinium spirale and Katodinium glaucum that potentially grazed the phytoplankton bloom. This diatom–flagellate switch was predicted to be due to a combination of further increasing water-column integrated irradiance > 100 W h m^− 2 d^− 1 and/or silicate reaching potentially limiting concentrations (< 1 μM). Post spring bloom, diatom dominance of the lower continuous summer phytoplankton biomass occurred despite the low silicate concentrations (Av. 0.7 μM from June–August). Summer diatom dominance, generally due to Guinardia delicatula, was expected to be as a result of microzooplankton grazing, dominated by the heterotrophic dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans, controlling 0.7–5.0 μm ‘flagellate’ fraction of the phytoplankton community with grazing rates up to 178% of ‘flagellate’ growth rate. The Thames plume region was therefore shown to be an active region of nutrient and phytoplankton processing and transport to the southern North Sea. The use of a combination of moorings and ship-based sampling was essential in understanding the factors influencing nutrient transport, phytoplankton biomass and species composition in this shelf sea plume region.     

Accumulation of Cu and Zn in discarded antifouling paint particles by the marine gastropod, Littorina littorea

The short-term (5 day) accumulation of Cu and Zn in different tissues of the marine gastropod, Littorina littorea, has been studied in the presence of 10 mg l⁻¹ of antifouling paint particles and pre- or simultaneously contaminated algal food (Ulva lactuca). Accumulation of Cu was observed in the head–foot, digestive gland–gonad complex and gills to extents dependent on how and when food was contaminated and administered. However, retention of Zn was only observed in the gills and only when L. littorea and U. lactuca were simultaneously exposed to paint particles. Relative to the alga, faecal material was highly enriched in Zn, suggesting that the animal is able to rapidly eliminate this metal, most likely through the formation and egestion of insoluble phosphate granules. Thus, L. littorea is a useful biomonitor of marine contamination by antifouling applications in respect of Cu but not Zn.     

The impact of scour processes on a smothered reef system in the Irish Sea

The Irish Sea, like many marine areas, is threatened by anthropogenic activities. In particular the Pisces Reef system, a series of smothered rocky reefs are subject to fishing pressures as a result of their position within a Nephrops norvegicus fishery. In an area of sediment deposition and retention the reefs modify the environment by increasing the energy of near-bottom currents which results in localised scouring. This is the first study to attempt to characterise and investigate the ecological functioning of the Pisces Reef system. A multidisciplinary approach was essential for accurate investigation of the area. To facilitate more effective management of the benthic habitats of the Reef system, this study integrates acoustic, seismic, grab sampling and video ground-truthing methods for benthic habitat discrimination. Orientation of the scour hollows also suggest that seabed features could be used to infer dominant flow regimes such as the Irish Sea Gyre. The data revealed significant geology–benthos relationships. A unique biotope was described for the reef habitat and it was demonstrated that scouring may influence community composition through disturbance mechanisms. This study provides preliminary information required for management of a unique habitat within a uniform region.