A Human Damage Prediction Method for Tsunami Disasters Incorporating Evacuation Activities

This study presents a tsunami human damage prediction method employing numerical calculation and GIS (Geographical Information System) for Usa town, Tosa City, Shikoku Island, Japan. Sometime near the end of the first half of the twenty-first century, a huge earthquake is predicted to occur along the Nankai trough and costal areas facing the Pacific ocean of Shikoku Island. Much damage due to the resultant tsunamis will be caused, therefore, it is necessary to predict the extent of human damage for every town in high-risk areas.The number of tsunami victims was estimated by population in areas of maximum inundation. The number of deaths as a result of tsunami was estimated by a method which employed accumulated death toll of every area in terms of time and space, taking into account consideration of time necessary to begin to seek refuge after an earthquake, tsunami inundation depth on land, flow velocity and evacuation speed. As a result of this study a rapid decrease in death toll by early evacuation was shown quantitatively for the first time.Thus, with the method presented here, it is possible to estimate the extent of tsunami human damage on coastal regions, and may be useful as a tsunami human damage countermeasure.     

A semi-distributed groundwater recharge model for estimating water-table and water-balance variables

A semi-distributed groundwater recharge model is presented, which estimates water-table fluctuation and water-balance variables. The model is expressed by the water-balance concept linking atmospheric and hydrogeological parameters to different water uses (industrial, agricultural, domestic, etc). It was calibrated and validated using 5 years of data collected in the Dogo Plain in Japan. A 3-year dataset, from 2000 to 2002, was used in the calibration, while a 2-year dataset, from 2003 to 2004, was used for the validation. Calibration of the model was achieved by the shuffled complex evolution automatic optimization of model parameters to match simulated results with measured water-table depth. Square roots of relative error (R²) are 0.88 and 0.90 for calibration and validation processes, respectively. Monthly evolution of water storage change was then estimated and the water-table drawdown in different pumping scenarios was simulated. Finally, the groundwater-pumping amount planned by the government for future sustainable groundwater utilization was evaluated. The government-planned groundwater-pumping amount is feasible in most regions while the midstream region should be paid more attention. This study offers a scientific basis to control and prevent depletion of groundwater resources.     

Nutrient and Phytoplankton Dynamics in Harima-Nada, Eastern Seto Inland Sea, Japan During a 35-Year Period from 1973 to 2007

Long-term monitoring of water quality and phytoplankton was conducted at 19 sampling stations in Harima-Nada, eastern Seto Inland Sea, Japan for 35 years from 1973 to 2007. There were two significant long-term changes, an increase in winter water temperatures of 0.042°C year^?1, and a decrease in dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from about 10 μM in the 1970s to ~5 μM in the late 1990s due to the reduction in nutrient inputs. DIN concentrations and total phytoplankton cell density were both higher during the 1970s to the early 1980s and then exhibited a significant decrease in the mid 1980s and remained relatively constant thereafter. Diatoms were the dominant phytoplankton group (>90%) over the 35-year period, and there was a dramatic shift from Skeletonema dominance (~70%) to Chaetoceros in the mid 1980s. This shift in diatom species may be attributed to differences in the life cycle of Skeletonema and Chaetoceros and the response to the decrease in DIN concentration.     

Biomass, Abundance, and Vertical Distribution of Micronekton and Large Gelatinous Zooplankton in the Subarctic Pacific and the Bering Sea during the Summer of 1997

The biomass, abundance, and vertical distribution of micronekton, including enidarians, mysids, euphausiids, decapods, thaliaceans, and fishes, were studied on the basis of samples collected with an 8-m² opening-closing rectangular midwater trawl (RMT-8, mesh size: 4.5 mm) at three stations in the subarctic Pacific (the western subarctic gyre, the central Subarctic, and the Gulf of Alaska) and one station in the oceanic Bering Sea. The total biomass in the 0–1000 m water column ranged from 2.9 to 5.1 gDW m^–2. Except for primary consumers that showed highly variable biomass (thaliaceans and euphausiids), biomass was highest in the oceanic Bering Sea followed by the central (boundary between eastern and western gyres), western gyre, and eastern Gulf of Alaska. The biomass compositions by higher taxa were basically similar between regions: fishes were most dominant, followed by enidarians at all stations, except for the marked predominance of thaliaceans in the Gulf of Alaska. High biomasses of gelatinous animals (31% of overall dry weight), occasionally comparable to those of fishes and crustaceans, suggest their potential importance in the subarctic Pacific. Characteristics in vertical patterns of micronekton biomass common in all stations were: (1) a mesopelagic peak around 500–600 m both day and night, (2) a layer of low biomass in the cold intermediate water and/or in the upper mesopelagic zone, (3) a nighttime shift of biomass to upper layers, and (4) an highly variable biomass of epipelagic/interzonal migrants (euphausiids and thaliaceans).     

Temperature profiling measurements by sea turtles improve ocean state estimation in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Confluence region

Ocean Dynamics - We demonstrate that assimilation of water temperature measurements by sea turtles into an operational ocean nowcast/forecast system improves representation of mesoscale eddies and...     

Morphology of intergranular pores and wetting angles in pelitic schists studied by transmission electron microscopy

In pelitic schists composed mainly of quartz and albite grains, the morphology of intergranular pores, which were filled with water, was studied by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Although some pores are defined by crystallographic planes (F-face), most of their form has an ideal shape determined by interface tensions between grains and fluid. High-resolution TEM observations demonstrate that pore-free regions at grain boundaries are tight even at the nanometer scale, showing that the wetting angle is larger than 0° in this rock. The pore distribution in two-grain junctions can be compared to a "necklace microstructure" developed by instability of a fluid film along the boundary induced by microcracking. Wetting angles for pores located at grain edges of quartz and albite decrease in the order albite/albite, quartz/quartz, and quartz/albite. The quartz/quartz wetting angle in a calcite-free sample is smaller than that in a calcite-containing sample. This angle also changes due to grain misorientation. Our results confirm that solid-solid and solid-fluid interfacial energies control the geometry of intergranular fluid in natural rocks.     

Quiescent Reconnection Rate Between Emerging Active Regions and Preexisting Field,with Associated Heating: NOAA AR 11112

When magnetic flux emerges from beneath the photosphere, it displaces the preexisting field in the corona, and a current sheet generally forms at the boundary between the old and new magnetic domains. Reconnection in the current sheet relaxes this highly stressed configuration to a lower energy state. This scenario is most familiar and most often studied in flares, where the flux transfer is rapid. We present here a study of steady, quiescent flux transfer occurring at a rate three orders of magnitude lower than that in a large flare. In particular, we quantify the reconnection rate and the related energy release that occurred as the new polarity emerged to form NOAA Active Region 11112 (SOL16 October 2010T00:00:00L205C117) within a region of preexisting flux. A bright, low-lying kernel of coronal loops above the emerging polarity, observed with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the X-ray Telescope onboard Hinode, originally showed magnetic connectivity only between regions of newly emerged flux when overlaid on magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. Over the course of several days, this bright kernel advanced into the preexisting flux. The advancement of an easily visible boundary into the old flux regions allows measuring the rate of reconnection between old and new magnetic domains. We compare the reconnection rate with the inferred heating of the coronal plasma. To our knowledge, this is the first measurement of steady, quiescent heating related to reconnection. We determined that the newly emerged flux reconnects at a fairly steady rate of 0.38×10¹⁶ Mx?s^?1 over two days, while the radiated power varies between (2?–?8)×10²⁵ erg?s^?1 over the same time. We found that as much as 40 % of the total emerged flux at any given time may have reconnected. The total amounts of transferred flux (～?1×10²¹ Mx) and radiated energy (～?7.2×10³⁰ ergs) are comparable to that of a large M- or small X-class flare, but are stretched out over 45 hours.     

A model of ‘disparitions brusques’ (sudden disappearance of eruptive prominences) as an instability driven by mhd waves

A model of ‘disparitions brusques’ (sudden disappearence of eruptive prominences) is discussed based on the Kippenhahn ans Schlüter configuration. It is shown that Kippenhahn and Schlüter's current sheet is very weakly unstable against magnetic reconnecting modes during the lifetime of quiescent prominences. Disturbances in the form of fast magnetosonic waves originating from nearby active regions or the changes of whole magnetic configuration due to newly emerged magnetic flux may trigger a rapid growing instability associated with magnetic field reconnection. This instability gives rise to disruptions of quiescent prominences and also generates high energy particles.     

3-D Rpic Simulations of Relativistic Jets: Particle Acceleration, Magnetic Field Generation, and Emission

We have applied numerical simulations and modeling to the particle acceleration, magnetic field generation, and emission from relativistic shocks. We investigate the nonlinear stage of theWeibel instability and compare our simulations with the observed gamma-ray burst emission. In collisionless shocks, plasma waves and their associated instabilities (e.g., the Weibel, Buneman and other two-stream instabilities) are responsible for particle (electron, positron, and ion) acceleration and magnetic field generation. 3-D relativistic electromagnetic particle (REMP) simulations with three different electron-positron jet velocity distributions and also with an electron-ion plasma have been performed and show shock processes including spatial and temporal evolution of shocks in unmagnetized ambient plasmas. The growth time and nonlinear saturation levels depend on the initial jet parallel velocity distributions. Simulations show that the Weibel instability created in the collisionless shocks accelerates jet and ambient particles both perpendicular and parallel to the jet propagation direction. The nonlinear fluctuation amplitude of densities, currents, electric, and magnetic fields in the electron-positron shocks are larger for smaller jet Lorentz factor. This comes from the fact that the growth time of the Weibel instability is proportional to the square of the jet Lorentz factor. We have performed simulations with broad Lorentz factor distribution of jet electrons and positrons, which is assumed to be created by photon annihilation. Simulation results with this broad distribution show that the Weibel instability is excited continuously by the wide-range of jet Lorentz factor from lower to higher values. In all simulations the Weibel instability is responsible for generating and amplifying magnetic fields perpendicular to the jet propagation direction, and contributes to the electron’s (positron’s) transverse deflection behind the jet head. This small scale magnetic field structure contributes to the generation of “jitter” radiation from deflected electrons (positrons), which is different from synchrotron radiation in uniform magnetic fields. The jitter radiation resulting from small scale magnetic field structures may be important for understanding the complex time structure and spectral evolution observed in gamma-ray bursts or other astrophysical sources containing relativistic jets and relativistic collisionless shocks. The detailed studies of shock microscopic process evolution may provide some insights into early and later GRB afterglows.     

GIS and quantitative geography

The purpose of this paper is to explore the development of the GIS revolution within the field of geography in the 1980s and 1990s, taking into consideration the influence of external and internal factors on disciplinary change. Geography is rapidly changing by the impact of external factors on geographical research and also as a consequence of economic recession and cutbacks in higher education. Most geography departments in universities have tried to approach this impact by promoting or shifting to human geography as an applied science, and by offering relevant skills through GIS as an approach to contemporary problems. It is concluded that quantitative geography is essential for the further expansion of GIS within geography and also for the survival of geography. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.