Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.     

GPS signal acquisition using the repeatability of successive code phase measurements

This paper introduces a new method for GPS signal acquisition, which is based on the repeatability of successive code phase measurements and the M-of-N search algorithm. The performance of the proposed method in terms of probability of signal detection is similar to that of traditional methods, except that the calculation of the probability of detection does not rely on the noise distribution or the Carrier-to-Noise ratio (C/N₀). The code phase repeatability-based method is presented along with equations for probability of detection and probability of false detection. If the distribution of the noise is known, it also provides an estimate of the C/N₀. The proposed method is illustrated for coherent and non-coherent acquisition and C/N₀ estimation.     

Income distribution dynamics and cross-region convergence in Europe

This paper presents a continuous version of the model of distribution dynamics to analyse the transition dynamics and implied long-run behaviour of the EU-27 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1995–2003. It departs from previous research in two respects: first, by introducing kernel estimation and three-dimensional stacked conditional density plots as well as highest density regions plots for the visualisation of the transition function, based on Hyndman et al. (J Comput Graph Stat 5(4):315–336, 1996), and second, by combining Getis’ spatial filtering view with kernel estimation to explicitly account for the spatial dimension of the growth process. The results of the analysis indicate a very slow catching-up of the poorest regions with the richer ones, a process of shifting away of a small group of very rich regions, and highlight the importance of geography in understanding regional income distribution dynamics.

Mirdita Zone ophiolites and associated sediments in Albania reveal Neotethys Ocean origin

The Mirdita Ophiolite Zone in Albania is associated with widespread mélanges containing components of up to nappe-size. We dated matrix and components of the mélange by radiolarians, conodonts, and other taxa. The components consist of radiolarites, pelagic limestones and shallow-water limestones, all of Triassic age, as well as ophiolites. Triassic radiolarite as a primary cover of ophiolite material proves Middle Triassic onset of Mirdita ocean-floor formation. The mélange contains a turbiditic radiolarite-rich matrix (“radiolaritic flysch”), dated as Late Bajocian to Early Oxfordian. It formed as a synorogenic sediment during west-directed thrusting of ophiolite and sediment-cover nappes representing ocean floor and underplated fragments of the western continental margin. The tectonic structures formed during these orogenic events (“Younger Kimmeridian or Eohellenic Orogeny”) are sealed by Late Jurassic platform carbonates. The geological history conforms with that of the Inner Dinarides and adjoining areas; we therefore correlate the Mirdita-Pindos Ophiolite Zone with the Vardar Zone and explain its present position by far-distance west-directed thrusting.     

Light Requirements for Growth and Survival of Eelgrass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera marina</Emphasis> L.) in Pacific Northwest (USA) Estuaries

We developed light requirements for eelgrass in the Pacific Northwest, USA, to evaluate the effects of short- and long-term reductions in irradiance reaching eelgrass, especially related to turbidity and overwater structures. Photosynthesis-irradiance experiments and depth distribution field studies indicated that eelgrass productivity was maximum at a photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) of about 350–550 μmol quanta m⁻² s⁻¹. Winter plants had approximately threefold greater net apparent primary productivity rate at the same irradiance as summer plants. Growth studies using artificial shading as well as field monitoring of light and eelgrass growth indicated that long-term survival required at least 3 mol quanta m⁻² day⁻¹ on average during spring and summer (i.e., May-September), and that growth was saturated above about 7 mol quanta m⁻² day⁻¹. We conclude that non-light-limited growth of eelgrass in the Pacific Northwest requires an average of at least 7 mol quanta m⁻² day⁻¹ during spring and summer and that long-term survival requires a minimum average of 3 mol quanta m⁻² day⁻¹.     

Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

A continuous/discontinuous Galerkin framework for modeling coupled subsurface and surface water flow

We consider conjunctive surface-subsurface flow modeling, where surface water flow is described by the shallow water equations and ground water flow by Richards’ equation for the vadose zone. Coupling between the models is based on the continuity of flux and water pressure. Numerical approximation of the coupled model using the framework of discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods is formulated. In the subsurface, the local discontinuous Galerkin (LDG) method is used to approximate ground water velocity and hydraulic head; a DG method is also used to approximate surface water velocity and elevation. This approach allows for a weak coupling of the models and the use of different approximating spaces and/or meshes within each regime. A simplified LDG method based on continuous approximations to water head is also described. Numerical results that investigate physical and numerical aspects of surface–subsurface flow modeling are presented. This work was supported by National Science Foundation grant DMS-0411413.     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.