基于优化经验模态分解和聚类分析的滑坡位移智能预测研究

针对三峡库区"阶跃式"滑坡的变形特征,提出了一种新的滑坡位移预测方法。以白水河滑坡ZG118和XD-01监测点位移数据为例,采用基于软筛分停止准则的经验模态分解(SSSC-EMD)将累计位移-时间曲线和影响因子时间序列自适应地分解为多个固有模态函数(IMF),并采用K均值(K-Means)聚类法对其进行聚类累加,得到有物理含义的位移分量(趋势性位移、周期性位移以及随机性位移)和影响因子分量(高频影响因子和低频影响因子)。使用最小二乘法对趋势性位移进行拟合预测;采用果蝇优化-最小二乘支持向量机(FOA-LSSVM)模型对周期性位移和随机性位移进行预测。将各位移分量预测值进行叠加处理,实现滑坡累计位移的预测。研究结果表明,所提出的(SSSC-EMD)-K-Means-(FOA-LSSVM)模型能够预测"阶跃式"滑坡的位移变化规律,且预测精度高于传统的支持向量机回归(SVR)、最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型;并通过改变训练集长度,进行单因素分析,发现其与预测精度之间呈正相关关系。     

U-Pb Zircon and Re-Os Molybdenite Geochronology of theW-Mo Mineralized Region of South Qinling,China, andtheir Tectonic Implications

A W-Mo mineralized region is located along the northern margin of the South Qinling tectonic belt of China. WMo mineralization occurs mainly in Cambrian–Ordovician clastic and carbonate rocks, and the ore bodies are structurally controlled by NW–SE-and NNE–SSW-striking faults. Evidence for magmatism in the area is widespread and is dominated by intermediate–felsic intrusives or apophyses, such as the Dongjiangkou, Yanzhiba, Lanbandeng, and Sihaiping granitic bodies. Quartz-vein-type mineralization and fault-controlled skarn-type mineralization dominate the ore systems, with additional enrichment in residual deposits. At present, there are few or insufficient studies on(1) the age of mineralization,(2) the relationship between intermediate–felsic granite and W-Mo mineralization,(3) the source of ore-forming materials,and(4) the metallogenic and tectonic setting of the mineralized area. In this paper, we present geochronology results for numerous intrusive granitic bodies in the South Qinling tectonic belt. U-Pb zircon geochronology of the Lanbandeng monzogranite and Wangjiaping biotite monzogranite yields ages of 222.7 ± 2.3 and 201.9 ± 1.8 Ma, respectively. In contrast to the Late Triassic age of the Lanbandeng monzogranite, the age of the newly discovered Wangjiaping biotite monzogranite places it at the Triassic–Jurassic boundary. Re-Os molybdenite geochronology on the Qipangou W-Mo deposit yielded a model age of 199.7 ± 3.9 Ma, indicating the deposit formed in the early Yanshanian period of the Early Jurassic. Granitoid intrusions in the mineralized area are characterized by composite granite bodies that crystallized at ca.240–190 Ma. While there were multiple stages of intrusion, most occurred at 210–220 Ma, with waning magmatic activity at 200–190 Ma. The Re-Os age of molybdenite in the region is ca. 200–190 Ma, which may represent a newly discovered period of W-Mo metallogenesis that occurred during the final stages of magmatism. The heat associated with this magmatism drove ore formation and might have provided additional ore-forming components for metallogenesis(represented by the Wangjiaping biotite monzogranite). Ore materials in the mineralized area were derived from mixed crustal and mantle sources. Enrichment of the region occurred during intracontinental orogenesis in the late Indosinian–Yanshanian, subsequent to the main Indosinian collision. At this time, the tectonic environment was dominated by extension and strike-slip motion.     

东昆仑山中段布尔汗布达山地区断裂特征及昆中断裂带南界讨论

布尔汗布达山西南缘属东昆仑造山带腹地,新太古代以来区域构造作用强烈。中二叠世,随着东昆仑地区多岛洋盆依次关闭,研究区形成数条近于平行的EW向深大断裂组合,构成昆中断裂带主体格架。通过研究分析与断裂相关的地形地貌、遥感影像、地球物理、岩石地层、变形变质、断裂结构组成、显微构造等,总结出主要断裂特征,并梳理了区内构造格架,针对尚未统一认识的昆中断裂带南界问题进行探讨,最终认为温冷恩断裂属昆中断裂带南界断裂。研究成果为进一步开展相关地质问题分析提供了依据。     

碳市场顶层设计路线图

中国正面临着低碳减排和保持经济增速的双重挑战。为利用碳排放权交易机制以最低的社会成本实现减排目标,我国自2013年起开始建设碳排放权交易试点,并于2017年12月起宣布正式启动全国碳市场。然而碳市场的顶层设计不可一蹴而就,需要在我国宏观经济改革的大背景下分阶段逐步推进。短期（2020年前）碳市场建设重在强化产权制度建设,完善市场交易基础。中期（2021—2030年）碳市场建设要形成活跃的市场氛围,充分降低我国的温室气体达峰成本。长期（2031—2050年）碳市场建设要形成稳定上升的碳价趋势,为我国的低碳转型提供长期动力。     

2000年后中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水减少及水汽输送特征

本文研究了1961～2016年中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率的年代际变化特征,并进一步分析了该地区极端降水和普通降水的大气环流和水汽输送的差异。主要的研究结果表明:1961～2016年中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率在2000年前后发生显著年代际变化,2000年后夏季极端降水天数和极端降水贡献率显著减少。与1984～1999年相比,2000～2016年在对流层高层从欧洲大陆、中亚到东北—蒙古地区,位势高度异常呈现出“正—负—正”的大气波列,从而造成北方东部地区上空为正压的位势高度正异常控制,伴随着下沉运动,大气层结趋于稳定,这些环流条件不利于极端降水发生。2000年后负位相的太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）和正位相的北大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）共同加强了北方东部地区上空的正位势高度异常。进一步研究表明,极端降水与普通降水的水汽输送和收支以及关键的局地大气系统存在着显著差异,较普通降水而言,极端降水在南北向水汽输送和收支上更强;北方东部地区低空为较强的闭合低压控制,并不断受到高层高位涡空气下传的影响。     

苏州市一次重霾污染天气过程的数值模拟

本文对苏州地区2015年12月13—15日发生的一次典型的重霾污染天气过程进行了数值模拟,分析了颗粒物及其组分的时空变化特征及其气象影响因子,以期为该区域空气污染治理和预防提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)利用WRF-Chem模式对此次重霾污染天气过程的污染气体成分进行数值模拟后发现,小时平均的PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、CO、SO_2、NO_2模拟值与实测值的相关系数较高,达到0.68以上,通过了P0.01的显著性检验,且日变化过程对应也较好。(2)通过分析此次污染过程的天气背景,发现污染形成期高空环流比较平直,中层为均匀的弱高压控制,地面受弱高压脊控制,这种形势容易导致颗粒物的堆积。后期地面等压线密集时,风速大,有利于污染物的输送与扩散。(3)通过分析此次污染过程期间气象要素的变化发现,有逆温、风速小、相对湿度大等不利的气象条件是导致此次污染过程发生的重要原因之一。(4)HYSPLIT轨迹分析显示,此次重霾过程主要受北方大范围灰霾颗粒物南下影响,北方污染气团逐步南推,14至15日本地大气扩散条件差、污染物累积,最终导致本地污染加重,从而发生重霾事件。(5)火点图的分布进一步验证了此次重霾污染过程是由外来污染气团输入所导致。     

Chronology and Geochemistry of Volcanic Rocks in the Cretaceous Suifenhe Formation in Eastern Heilongjiang, China

Zircon U-Pb ages and geochemical data of volcanic rocks in the Suifenhe Formation in eastern Heilongjiang Province are reported, and their petrogenesis is discussed in this paper. The Suifenhe Formation mainly consists of basalt, andesite, and dacite. Zircon from andesite and dacite are euhedral in shape and show typical oscillatory zoning with high Th/U ratios (0.18-0.57), implying its magmatic origin. Zircon U-Pb dating results by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (LA-ICP-MS) indicate that the 206Pb/238U ages of zircons from andesite range within 105-106 Ma, yielding a weighted mean age of 105.5±0.8 Ma (n=14), and that 206Pb/238U ages of zircons from dacite are between 90-96 Ma, yielding a weighted mean age of 93.2±1.3 Ma (n =13). The volcanic rocks from the Suifenhe Formation are subalkaline series and show a calc-alkaline evolutionary trend with SiO2 content of 47.69%-65.47%, MgO contents of 1.42%-6.80% (Mg#= 45-53), and Na2O/K2O ratios of 1.83-3.63. They are characterized by enrichment in large ion lithophile elements (LILE) and light-rare-earth elements (LREE), depletion in heavy rare earth elements (HREE) and high field strength elements (HFSE) (e.g., Nb, Ta, Ti), and low initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7041-0.7057) and positiveεNd(t) values (039-4.08), implying that they could be derived from a depleted magma source. Taken together, these results suggest that the primary magma of the volcanic rocks might originate from partial melting of the mantle wedge metasomatized by fluids derived from subducted slab under a tectonic setting of active continental margin.     

巴布亚盆地侏罗系陆架边缘三角洲沉积特征及其油气勘探方向

为明确巴布亚盆地主要的含油气系统发育层段——侏罗系的沉积特征及其与油气勘探的关系,在分析前人研究成果、沉积背景与古物源的基础上,通过地震相、测井相、岩心相"三相"联合分析及与周边的布劳斯盆地的类比,识别了沉积微相类型,刻画了沉积体系的纵横向展布特征;通过不同沉积相带生烃指标、储层物性参数对比,明确了有利的烃源岩与储层发...     

南召县石鼓金矿地质特征及成因探讨

石鼓金矿位于北秦岭复杂褶皱带东段,乔端-瓦穴子断裂南侧,牧虎顶花岗岩体之北侧,矿脉的产出受断裂构造控制.矿脉数量多,规模大小不一,成矿与构造岩浆活动等关系密切.矿床类型为石英脉型.