Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.     

Environmental Governance Meets Reality: A Micro-Scale Perspective on Sustainability Certification Schemes for Oil Palm Smallholders in Jambi,Sumatra

Abstract

Multi-stakeholder sustainability certification schemes have become a favorite instrument for applying good governance, though studies indicate their inefficiency at the producer level. In this study, we used a mixed-method approach to first, map the institutional context of independent oil-palm smallholders in rural Sumatra while, second, reflecting upon the impact of the Smallholder Standard proposed by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil on smallholder management practices. We hold that non-recognition of micro-scale perspectives within governance processes may partially explain noncompliance with certification principles among smallholders. The Smallholder Standard appears unable to mitigate challenges important for smallholders, who in turn cannot properly comply with it, due to problems including weather instability and high management costs. We suggest that certification schemes need to work on some overlooked but essential preconditions of good governance, namely gaining micro-level visibility and acceptance.     

Decadal windstorm activity in the North Atlantic-European sector and its relationship to the meridional overturning circulation in an ensemble of simulations with a coupled climate model

The relationship between decadal variations in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and North Atlantic/Western European windstorm activity during the extended winter season is studied. According to an ensemble of three 240-year long simulations performed with the ECHAM5-MPIOM model, periods of high decadal windstorm activity frequently occur in the years following a phase of weak MOC (i.e. when the MOC starts to recover). These periods are characterised by a distinctive pattern in the mixed layer ocean heat content (OHC). A positive anomaly is located in the region 45°N?52°N/35°W?16°W (west of France). Negative anomalies are located to the North and South. The signal can be detected both in the heat content of the oceanic mixed layer and in the sea surface temperatures. Its structure is consistent with anomalously enhanced baroclinic instability in the region with the strong negative OHC gradient (30°W?10°W/45°N?60°N), which eventually produces a higher probability of windstorms.     

Mixing efficiency from microstructure measurements in the Sicily Channel

Ocean Dynamics - The dissipation flux coefficient, a measure of the mixing efficiency of a turbulent flow, was computed from microstructure measurements collected with a vertical microstructure...     

CO2 threshold for millennial-scale oscillations in the climate system: implications for global warming scenarios

We present several equilibrium runs under varying atmospheric CO₂ concentrations using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). The model shows two very different responses: for CO₂ concentrations of 400 ppm or lower, the system evolves into an equilibrium state. For CO₂ concentrations of 440 ppm or higher, the system starts oscillating between a state with vigorous deep water formation in the Southern Ocean and a state with no deep water formation in the Southern Ocean. The flushing events result in a rapid increase in atmospheric temperatures, degassing of CO₂ and therefore an increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and a reduction of sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean. They also cool the deep ocean worldwide. After the flush, the deep ocean warms slowly again and CO₂ is taken up by the ocean until the stratification becomes unstable again at high latitudes thousands of years later. The existence of a threshold in CO₂ concentration which places the UVic ESCM in either an oscillating or non-oscillating state makes our results intriguing. If the UVic ESCM captures a mechanism that is present and important in the real climate system, the consequences would comprise a rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of several tens of ppm, an increase in global surface temperature of the order of 1–2°C, local temperature changes of the order of 6°C and a profound change in ocean stratification, deep water temperature and sea ice cover.     

The influence of structural organization of epilithic and endolithic lichens on limestone weathering

Hyphal penetration, mineral dissolution and neoformation at the lichen–rock interface have been widely characterized by microscopic and spectroscopic studies, and considered as proxies of lichen deterioration of stone substrates. However, these phenomena have not been clearly related to experimental data on physical properties related to stone durability, and the physical consequences of lichen removal from stone surfaces have also been overlooked. In this study, we combine microscopic and spectroscopic characterization of the structural organization of epi‐ and endolithic lichens (Caloplaca marina (Wedd.) Du Rietz, Caloplaca ochracea (Schaer.) Flagey, Bagliettoa baldensis (A.Massal.) Vězda, Porina linearis (Leight.) Zahlbr., Verrucaria nigrescens Pers.) at the interface with limestones of interest for Cultural Heritage (Portland Limestone, Botticino Limestone), with analysis of rock properties (water absorption, surface hardness) relevant for durability, before and after the removal or scraping of lichen thalli. Observations using reflected‐light and electron microscopy, and Raman analyses, showed lichen–limestone stratified interfaces, differing in the presence/absence and depth of lichen anatomical layers (lithocortex, photobiont layer, pervasive and sparse hyphal penetration component) depending on species and lithology. Specific structural organizations of lichen–rock interface were found to be associated with differential patterns of water absorption increase, evaluated by Karsten tube, in comparison with surfaces with microbial biofilms only, even more pronounced after the removal or scraping of the upper structural layers. Equotip measurements on surfaces bearing intact thalli showed lower hardness in comparison with control surfaces. By contrast, after the removal or scraping procedures, Equotip values were similar to or higher than those of controls, suggesting that the increasing open porosity may be related to a biogenic hardening process. Such counterposed patterns of porosity increase and hardening need to be considered when models relating lichen occurrence on limestones and biogeomorphological surface evolution are proposed, and to evaluate the consequences of lichen removal from stone‐built cultural heritage. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Depth-stratified community zonation patterns on Gulf of Alaska rocky shores

Vertical zonation patterns have been considered ubiquitous in intertidal ecosystems but questions remain about their generality for individual taxonomic groups and over broad spatial scales, and whether they continue into adjacent shallow subtidal habitats. Taxon richness, invertebrate abundance, and macroalgal biomass were examined in the summer of 2003 along a vertical gradient in the rocky intertidal and shallow subtidal habitats around Kodiak Island, Kachemak Bay, and Prince William Sound, all within the Gulf of Alaska. Replicate samples of benthic organisms were taken in the high (～ 7 m), mid (～ 4 m) and low (～ 0 m) intertidal (relative to MLLW), and at 1, 5, 10 and 15 m water depths at three sites in each region, and identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level. Our primary goals were to assess (1) how estimates of taxon richness, invertebrate abundance, and macroalgal biomass vary among intertidal heights and subtidal depths and (2) how general these patterns are when considered across the Gulf of Alaska. Our results show that when all invertebrates were considered together, most of the variation in taxon richness was accounted for by differences among depths (i.e. intertidal heights and subtidal depths) (～ 51%), and among replicate samples within each depth (～ 26%). Little to none of the variation was accounted for by differences among sites within each region (～ 1%) or among regions themselves (～ 0%). When considered across the Gulf of Alaska, total taxon richness and organism abundance were greatest in the low intertidal/shallow subtidal and decreased with increasing height/depth. When separated by phylum and examined together with macroalgae, variation in abundance and/or biomass among depths was significant and accounted for most of the variability. Differences among regions and sites within each region were not significant and accounted for little to none of the variance. Because the pattern of zonation varied among sites within each region, it reduced the generality of a single zonation pattern for the Gulf of Alaska. Likewise, when community composition was compared among depths, geographic regions and sites within each region using multivariate analyses, vertical zonation patterns were evident at a regional scale, but high variability in these patterns among sites within each region reduced the generality of these patterns.