Volcanic plumes and wind: Jetstream interaction examples and implications for air traffic

Volcanic plumes interact with the wind at all scales. On smaller scales, wind affects local eddy structure; on larger scales, wind shapes the entire plume trajectory. The polar jets or jetstreams are regions of high [generally eastbound] winds that span the globe from 30 to 60° in latitude, centered at an altitude of about 10 km. They can be hundreds of kilometers wide, but as little as 1 km in thickness. Core windspeeds are up to 130 m/s. Modern transcontinental and transoceanic air routes are configured to take advantage of the jetstream. Eastbound commercial jets can save both time and fuel by flying within it; westbound aircraft generally seek to avoid it.Using both an integral model of plume motion that is formulated within a plume-centered coordinate system (BENT) as well as the Active Tracer High-resolution Atmospheric Model (ATHAM), we have calculated plume trajectories and rise heights under different wind conditions. Model plume trajectories compare well with the observed plume trajectory of the Sept 30/Oct 1, 1994, eruption of Kliuchevskoi Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia, for which measured maximum windspeed was 30–40 m/s at about 12 km. Tephra fall patterns for some prehistoric eruptions of Avachinsky Volcano, Kamchatka, and Inyo Craters, CA, USA, are anomalously elongated and inconsistent with simple models of tephra dispersal in a constant windfield. The Avachinsky deposit is modeled well by BENT using a windspeed that varies with height.Two potentially useful conclusions can be made about air routes and volcanic eruption plumes under jetstream conditions. The first is that by taking advantage of the jetstream, aircraft are flying within an airspace that is also preferentially occupied by volcanic eruption clouds and particles. The second is that, because eruptions with highly variable mass eruption rate pump volcanic particles into the jetstream under these conditions, it is difficult to constrain the tephra grain size distribution and mass loading present within a downwind volcanic plume or cloud that has interacted with the jetstream. Furthermore, anomalously large particles and high mass loadings could be present within the cloud, if it was in fact formed by an eruption with a high mass eruption rate. In terms of interpretation of tephra dispersal patterns, the results suggest that extremely elongated isopach or isopleth patterns may often be the result of eruption into the jetstream, and that estimation of the mass eruption rate from these elongated patterns should be considered cautiously.     

The application of caesium‐137 measurements to investigate floodplain deposition in a large semi‐arid catchment in Queensland,Australia: a low‐fallout environment

Floodplains comprise geomorphologically important sources and sinks for sediments and associated pollutants, yet the sedimentology of large dryland floodplains is not well understood. Processes occurring on such floodplains are often difficult to observe, and techniques used to investigate smaller perennial floodplains are often not practical in these environments. This study assesses the utility of ¹³⁷Cs inventory and depth‐profile techniques for determining relative amounts of floodplain sedimentation in the Fitzroy River, northeastern Australia; a 143 000 km² semi‐arid river system. Caesium‐137 inventories were calculated for floodplain and reference location bulk soil cores collected from four sites. Depth profiles of ¹³⁷Cs concentration from each floodplain site and a reference location were recorded. The areal density of ¹³⁷Cs at reference locations ranged from 13 to 978 Bq m^–2 (0–1367 Bq m^–2 at the 95% confidence interval), and the mean value ± 2 (standard error of the mean) was 436 ± 264 Bq m^–2, similar to published data from other Southern Hemisphere locations. Floodplain inventories ranged from 68 to 1142 Bq m^–2 (0–1692 Bq m^–2 at the 95% confidence interval), essentially falling within the range of reference inventory values, thus preventing calculation of erosion or deposition. Depth‐profiles of ¹³⁷Cs concentration indicate erosion at one site and over 66 cm of deposition at another since 1954. Analysis of ^239+240Pu concentrations in a depositional core substantiated the interpretation made from ¹³⁷Cs data, and depict a more tightly constrained peak in concentration. Average annual deposition rates range from 0 to 15 mm. The similarity between floodplain and reference bulk inventories does not necessarily indicate a lack of erosion or deposition, due to low ¹³⁷Cs fallout in the region and associated high measurement uncertainties, and a likely influence of gully and bank eroded sediments with no or limited adsorbed ¹³⁷Cs. In this low‐fallout environment, detailed depth‐profile data are necessary for investigating sedimentation using ¹³⁷Cs. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of thunderstorm-generated atmospheric gravity waves on mid-latitude F-region drifts

Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) was used to examine ionospheric drift velocities measured by a digital ionosonde located at the mid-latitude station Bundoora (145.1°E, 37.7°S geographic), near Melbourne. The control times for the SEA were the times of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strokes measured from August 2003 to August 2004 by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). Statistically, regions of concentrated lightning activity migrated from west to east across Bundoora, and the stroke frequency was higher the day prior the activity reached the station, and lower on the day after it passed to the east. For the SEA, CG strokes were separated into four directional quadrants centred on north, south, east and west. No SEA results are shown for the south quadrant due to the relatively low detection frequency of strokes across the Southern Ocean (6% of all events). The strongest downward vertical perturbations in F-region drifts, ?4.5 m s^?1, were found for lightning located towards the west during ?30 to ?16 h (i.e., the afternoon prior the activity passed near the station at t=0 h). The downward perturbation decreased in amplitude to ?1.5 m s^?1 for lightning located towards the north during ?6–+6 h, and was weakest (?0.7 m s^?1) for lightning located towards the east during +16–+28 h (i.e., the next afternoon). There were directionally consistent perturbations in the drift azimuths associated with the lightning located in their respective quadrants; lightning located to the west of the station caused eastward azimuth enhancements, northward lightning caused southward enhancements, and eastward lightning caused westward enhancements. Velocity magnitudes and fluctuations tended to increase during the passage of lightning. The observed responses were stronger when the SEA was performed with data selected using time windows of <2 min on either side of each lightning stroke. However, they persisted at longer time scales and were strong when thunderstorm onsets (instead of lightning times) were used as controls. Our results can be explained by thunderstorm-generated atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) which subsequently gave rise to medium-scale travelling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs), with the lightning strokes acting merely as a proxy for this coupling. The prevailing thermospheric winds were flowing from east to west across the study region, and may have acted as a directional ‘filter’ for the MSTIDs, allowing waves generated in the west quadrant to reach the station and preventing those generated in other quadrants. Displacement of the MSTIDs in the direction anti-parallel to mean neutral wind flow has been observed by (Waldock, J.A., Jones, T.B., 1986. HF Doppler observations of medium-scale travelling ionospheric disturbances at mid-latitudes. Journal of atmospheric and terrestrial physics 48(3), 245–260).     

Population Structure of Adult Blue Crabs, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Callinectes sapidus</Emphasis>, in Relation to Physical Characteristics in Barnegat Bay,New Jersey

Blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) are an important species in coastal or lagoonal estuaries where adult population characteristics may differ as compared to drowned-river estuaries. Barnegat Bay, in southern New Jersey, is composed of two large embayments: one without and one with a salinity gradient. We tested the influence of physical characteristics on the abundance, sex ratio, and size of adult blue crabs and examined variation in measures of reproductive potential (e.g., sperm stores) in both sexes in Barnegat Bay from June to September, 2008–2009. Population structure was distinct between the embayments due to sex-specific responses to salinity: male abundance was negatively correlated with salinity whereas adult females were more abundant in high salinity because of proximity to Barnegat Inlet. This produced high sex ratios in low salinity areas and low sex ratios in high salinity areas. Summer was a growing season for adult males while in late summer-early fall, juvenile males recruited to the adult size class. The spawning season lasted from May to August and ovigerous females were concentrated near the inlets. Information on female sperm stores and ovarian development identified two cohorts of adult females: females that will spawn in the current summer and females that will not spawn until the following summer. Thus, not all adult females near the spawning grounds were members of the current spawning stock. This suggests that annual estimates of spawning stock size which overlook the proximity of females to spawning are overestimating the current spawning stock in Barnegat Bay and other estuaries.     

On the Inclination Distribution of the Jovian Irregular Satellites

Irregular satellites—moons that occupy large orbits of significant eccentricity e and/or inclination I—circle each of the giant planets. The irregulars often extend close to the orbital stability limit, about 1/3-1/2 of the way to the edge of their planet's Hill sphere. The distant, elongated, and inclined orbits suggest capture, which presumably would give a random distribution of inclinations. Yet, no known irregulars have inclinations (relative to the ecliptic) between 47 and 141°.This paper shows that many high-I orbits are unstable due to secular solar perturbations. High-inclination orbits suffer appreciable periodic changes in eccentricity; large eccentricities can either drive particles with ∼70°<I<110° deep into the realm of the regular satellites (where collisions and scatterings are likely to remove them from planetocentric orbits on a timescale of 10⁷-10⁹ years) or expel them from the Hill sphere of the planet.By carrying out long-term (10⁹ years) orbital integrations for a variety of hypothetical satellites, we demonstrate that solar and planetary perturbations, by causing particles to strike (or to escape) their planet, considerably broaden this zone of avoidance. It grows to at least 55°<I<130° for orbits whose pericenters freely oscillate from 0 to 360°, while particles whose pericenters are locked at ±90° (Kozai mechanism) can remain for longer times.We estimate that the stable phase space (over 10 Myr) for satellites trapped in the Kozai resonance contains ∼10% of all stable orbits, suggesting the possible existence of a family of undiscovered objects at higher inclinations than those currently known.     

The size-frequency distribution of dormant Jupiter family comets

We estimate the total number and the slope of the size-frequency distribution (SFD) of dormant Jupiter family comets (JFCs) by fitting a one-parameter model to the known population. We first select 61 near-Earth objects (NEOs) that are likely to be dormant JFCs because their orbits are dynamically coupled to Jupiter [Bottke, W.F., Morbidelli, A., Jedicke, R., Petit, J., Levison, H.F., Michel, P., Metcalfe, T.S., 2002a. Icarus 156, 399-433]. Then, from the numerical simulations of Levison and Duncan [1997. Icarus 127, 13-32], we construct an orbit distribution model for JFCs in the NEO orbital element space. We assume an orbit-independent SFD for all JFCs, the slope of which is our unique free parameter. Finally, we compute observational biases for dormant JFCs using a calibrated NEO survey simulator [Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Spahr, T., Petit, J., Bottke, W.F., 2003. Icarus 161, 17-33]. By fitting the biased model to the data, we estimate that there are ∼75 dormant JFCs with H<18 in the NEO region and that the slope of their cumulative SFD is −1.5±0.3. Our slope for the SFD of dormant JFCs is very close to that of active JFCs as determined by Weissman and Lowry [2003. Lunar Planet. Sci. 34. Abstract 2003]. Thus, we argue that when JFCs fade they are likely to become dormant rather than to disrupt and that the fate of faded comets is size-independent. Our results imply that the size distribution of the JFC progenitors—the scattered disk trans-neptunian population—either (i) has a similar and shallow SFD or (i^′) is slightly steeper and physical processes acting on the comets in a size-dependent manner creates the shallower active comet SFD. Our measured slope, typical of collisionally evolved populations with a size-dependent impact strength [Benz, W., Asphaug, E., 1999. Icarus 142, 5-20], suggests that scattered disk bodies reached collisional equilibrium inside the protoplanetary disk prior to their removal from the planetary region.     

The effects of viewing angle on the inference of magnetic shear in preflare active regions

The magnetic shear at a point within an active region field configuration can be defined (Hagyard et al., 1984b) as the difference in angle between the observed photospheric transverse field and that of a reference potential field calculated using the observed line-of-sight field as a boundary condition. Using analytic models for non-potential (but force-free) fields representative of preflaring active regions, we calculate the degree of magnetic shear along the magnetic neutral line that such fields would exhibit, as a function of the location and orientation of the active region on the solar disk. We find that, except for regions close to disk center, the position of the inferred neutral line (zero line-of-sight field) is significantly different from the actual neutral line (zero radial field), and that the calculated reference potential field also varies significantly with the position of the region. Thus the inferred degree of shear can vary significantly with the position and orientation of the region, due to (a) straightforward geometric projection effects, (b) the shift of the inferred neutral line relative to its true position, and (c) variations in the reference potential field. The significance of these results for flare prediction is considered.Presidential Young Investigator.     

Three-dimensional mapping of a landslide using a multi-geophysical approach: the Quesnel Forks landslide

A landslide located on the Quesnel River in British Columbia, Canada is used as a case study to demonstrate the utility of a multi-geophysical approach to subsurface mapping of unstable slopes. Ground penetrating radar (GPR), direct current (DC) resistivity and seismic reflection and refraction surveys were conducted over the landslide and adjacent terrain. Geophysical data were interpreted based on stratigraphic and geomorphologic observations, including the use of digital terrain models (DTMs), and then integrated into a 3-dimensional model. GPR surveys yielded high-resolution data that were correlated with stratigraphic units to a maximum depth of 25 m. DC electrical resistivity offered limited data on specific units but was effective for resolving stratigraphic relationships between units to a maximum depth of 40 m. Seismic surveys were primarily used to obtain unit boundaries up to a depth of >80 m. Surfaces of rupture and separation were successfully identified by GPR and DC electrical resistivity techniques.     

An evaluation of glass prisms in boat docks to reduce shading of submerged aquatic vegetation in the lower St. Johns River,Florida

The effectiveness of glass prisms in boat docks was assessed to determine if shading impacts to submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), primarilyVallisneria americana, were reduced. Six experimental docks, three with prisms and three without prisms, were constructed in the lower St. Johns River, Florida. SAV percent cover and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) were monitored under each dock and in an adjacent control area with no experimental docks. Subsurface PAR during the growing season of the first year of the study was not significantly greater beneath docks having prisms than beneath docks without prisms. Postconstruction SAV monitoring (February 2000 to May 2002) revealed no significant differences in SAV percent cover between dock treatments, although coverage declined in both dock treatments and the control area. Declining water quality conditions at the study site clearly impacted the health of the SAV habitat as indicated by the decline in SAV coverage in the control area initially in the study. Given the subsequent resurgence of SAV in the control area, the additional light transmitted through the prisms did not appear to be biologically significant or adequate to counteract effects from larger-scale environmental stressors.