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91.
Ecosystem Modeling Adds Value to a South African Climate Forecast   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Livestock production in South Africa is limited by frequent droughts. The South African Weather Service produces climate forecasts estimating the probability of low rainfall three and six months into the future. We used the ecosystem model SAVANNA applied to five commercial farms in the Vryburg region of the North-West Province, and five communal areas within the Province, to assess the utility of a climate forecast in refining drought coping strategies. Rainfall data from 1970 to 1994 were modified to represent a drought (225 mm of rainfall) in 1977/1978, and used in simulations. In a simulation on an example commercial farm we assumed a forecast was available in 1977 portending an upcoming drought, and that the owner sold 490 cattle and 70 sheep prior to the drought. Over the simulation period, the owner sold 31% more cattle when the forecast was used,versus when the forecast was ignored. Populations of livestock on both commercial and communal farms recovered more quickly following the drought when owners sold animals in response to the forecast. The economic benefit from sales is being explored using optimization techniques. Results and responses from South African livestock producers suggest that a real-time farm model linked with climate forecasting would be a valuable management tool.  相似文献   
92.
Streams and their accompanying riparian environments are intrinsic components of terrestrial carbon cycling. However, they have been understudied in terms of the magnitude of their storage components and the role of disturbance in determining carbon storage capacity. This study presents partial carbon budgets for stream‐riparian corridors along six study reaches in mountain headwater streams of southeast Wyoming to evaluate the impact of tie‐driving, a historic disturbance legacy, on contemporary carbon storage. Detailed measurements of biomass were collected for in‐stream components of carbon including fine and coarse particulate organic matter and in‐stream large wood. Biomass was also estimated for riparian components including standing trees (live and dead), regenerating conifers, shrubs and herbaceous vegetation, downed wood, litter, and duff (partially decayed litter). Biomass was converted to carbon for all components and differences in storage were compared between tie‐driven and non‐driven reaches. Carbon content in riparian soils (to approximately 20 cm) was also measured. Twice the amount of carbon was stored in the riparian areas relative to the streams; most carbon was stored in standing trees (live and dead). While overall carbon storage within the riparian areas and streams were similar between disturbance conditions, the amount of carbon stored in large in‐stream wood and downed wood on the floodplain was significantly higher in systems that were not tie‐driven. The results of this study indicate that legacies of tie‐driving influence carbon storage within the region, while also capturing baseline estimates of carbon storage in the wake of recent bark beetle infestations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
93.
Several limnological and paleolimnological investigations have linked enhanced atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition to nutrient enrichment and increased primary production. The Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, Canada is a significant source of N emissions, particularly since development intensified during the 1990s, and recent paleolimnological investigations provide evidence of increased lake production in adjacent areas subject to enhanced N deposition. The AOSR, however, has also experienced atmospheric warming since ca. AD 1900, and therefore the relative effects of nutrient deposition and climate changes on lake production remain unclear. We undertook a factorial-design paleolimnological assessment of 16 lakes in northwest Saskatchewan to quantify changes in abundance and species composition of scaled chrysophytes over the past 100 years. Study sites included both N-limited and P-limited lakes within control regions, as well as lakes that receive enhanced N deposition from the AOSR. We hypothesized that a change in algal communities within N-limited AOSR-impacted lakes, without concurrent changes in the other lake groups, would suggest AOSR-derived N as a driver of enhanced primary production. Instead, marked increases in concentrations of scaled chrysophytes, mainly Mallomonas crassisquama, occurred in the recent sediments in cores from all four lake groups (N-limited vs. P-limited, impacted vs. control), suggesting that regional climate change rather than N deposition was the paramount process enhancing chrysophyte production. Because chrysophyte abundances tended to be higher in deep, lower-pH lakes, and chrysophyte time series were fit best by lake-specific generalized additive models, we infer that climate effects may have been mediated by additional catchment and/or lake-specific processes.  相似文献   
94.
Satellite-measured along-track and gridded sea surface height (SSH) anomaly products from AVISO are compared with in situ SSH anomaly measurements from an array of 43 pressure-recording inverted echo sounders (PIESs) in the Kuroshio Extension. PIESs measure bottom pressure (P bot) and round-trip acoustic travel time from the sea floor to the sea surface (τ). The P bot and τ measurements are used to estimate, respectively, the mass-loading and steric height variations in SSH anomaly. All comparisons are made after accurate removal of tidal components from all data. Overall good correlations are found between along-track and PIES-derived SSH anomalies with mean correlation coefficient of 0.97. Comparisons between the two measurements reveal that the mass-loading component estimated from P bot is relatively small in this geographical region. It improves regression coefficients about 5?% and decreases mean root-mean-squared (rms) differences from 7.8 to 6.4?cm. The AVISO up-to-date gridded product, which merges all available satellite measurements of Jason-1, Envisat, Geosat Follow-On, and TOPEX/Poseidon interlaced, shows better correlations and smaller rms differences than the AVISO reference gridded product, which merges only Jason-1 and Envisat. Especially, the up-to-date gridded product reveals 6.8?cm rms improvement on average at sites away from Jason-1 ground tracks. Gridded products exhibit low correlation (0.75–0.9) with PIES-derived SSH in a subregion where the SSH fluctuations have relatively high energy at periods shorter than 20?days.  相似文献   
95.
Crepidula fornicata were held in a flow-through bioassay system and exposed to sand-filtered seawater to which no soluble mercury (control) was added or to which either 5, 25, or 50 μg 1?1 soluble Hg was added. At specific intervals during the 16-week experiment, a group of limpets was removed from each tank; one subgroup was exposed for 48 h to high concentrations of Hg, and another was analyzed for Hg-binding proteins by gelpermeation chromatography and spectrometry. Mortality from exposure to Hg in the 48-h acute toxicity tests was related to concentrations of Hg experienced both during the long-term exposure period and the 48-h exposure period. Chronic exposure to low levels of Hg resulted in increased amounts of total Hg in the whole body and in the low-molecular-weight Hg-binding proteins. No evidence was found for increased tolerance to Hg with preexposure.  相似文献   
96.
Alternative Places of Detention (APODs) are a new way of detaining asylum seekers in Australia. The establishment of APODs creates a new formal structure of belonging in Australia which challenges everyday practices of belonging and senses of belonging at the local and national scale. This paper examines practices of belonging which emerged following the establishment of the Inverbrackie APOD in Woodside, South Australia. Using a critical discourse analysis approach, informed by the insights of theories of performativity, this research explores the competing stories of two broadly defined groups (opponents and supporters of Inverbrackie) engaged in a dialogue about asylum seekers, refugees, immigration detention and belonging. While opposition to the APOD was vocal and frequent in the lead-up to the establishment of the detention centre, once the Inverbrackie APOD became operational opponents’ voices began to fade. On the other hand, supporters continued to say things—and more importantly continued to do things—to nurture belonging for asylum seekers in Inverbrackie, Woodside, and Australia.  相似文献   
97.
The vertical distribution of stage I blue crab larvae, near the mouth of Chesapeake Bay, was examined over four diurnal cycles. Each of two stations was occupied for 30 hours twice during the summer of 1979.On each of the four cruises, peak larval abundance occurred after a night time high slack tide, suggesting a synchronized hatch of blue crab larvae. 90–99% of all larvae collected were taken in the neuston layer. The apparent timing of the hatches to coincide with the beginning of an ebb tide and the concentration of larvae in the neuston layer strongly suggests seaward transport of these early stage larvae and the probability of offshore development.  相似文献   
98.
The 1995 United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement facilitates the creation of regional fishery management organizations (RFMOs) to govern harvests of straddling and highly migratory fish stocks. The stability and success of these organizations will depend, in part, on how effectively they can maintain member nations’ incentives to cooperate despite the uncertainties and shifting opportunities that may result from climate-driven changes in the productivity, migratory behavior, or catchability of the fish stocks governed by the RFMO. Such climatic impacts may intensify incentives for opportunism, and create other management challenges for the RFMOs now governing tropical tuna fisheries in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.  相似文献   
99.
We have determined the halogen and boron concentrations in the ice-covered lakes of Taylor Valley, Antarctica, to better establish the sources of salts and evolutionary histories of these unusual water bodies. In addition, we report on a series of 129I measurements that were compared with previous 36Cl data that also help constrain the source of solutes and histories of the lakes. The new data, when put into context of previous work on these systems over the past forty years, allow us to make the following conclusions. The primary source of solutes to Lake Hoare, the youngest of the lakes, is the dissolution of marine aerosols and aeolian salts and the chemical weathering of dust on the glaciers. The geochemistry of Lake Fryxell, the brackish water lake, is primarily dominated by the diffusion from a halite-saturated brine at the sediment-water interface and the recent infilling of the lake by glacier meltwater. These waters have chemical weathering and marine aerosols components. Lake Bonney has two distinct lobes whose hypersaline hypolimnia have different chemistries. Both of the lobes are remnants of ancient marine waters that have been modified by the input of weathering products. This lake has also been modified by periods of cryogenic concentration when solutes have been lost via mineral precipitation. Thus the geochemistry of Lake Bonney owes its unusual geochemistry, in part, to variations in the climate in the Taylor Valley over at least the past 300kyr. The 129I data from the Taylor Valley are similar to those from fracture fluids in crystalline rocks from the Northern Hemisphere.  相似文献   
100.
This paper presents reflections on a research project in women's health, providing both substantive findings surrounding tanning and social status and methodological recommendations for future research. The project under review utilized a picture-elicited storytelling method to: a) understand how women link tanned, bronzed skin to health, status, and attractiveness; and b) test the effectiveness of picture-elicited storytelling as a research method. The project found that, when tanning, women use their bodies to inscribe the social norm of the bronzed aesthetic. While women indicate considerable knowledge of the health dangers of tanning, they continue to link tanned skin to beauty, status, and attractiveness. Further, the research project found that the use of picture-elicited storytelling as a method is potentially powerful but requires considerable attention to concerns of power and representation on the part of the research team.  相似文献   
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