Projections of severe droughts in future climate in Southeast Brazil: a case study in Southern Minas Gerais State,Brazil

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - South of Minas Gerais state, in Southeast Brazil, is known for the coffee crop production (more than 30% of country’s production) and hydroelectricity...     

The effect of global warming on mortality

There is a significant relationship between ambient temperature and mortality. In healthy individuals with no underlying co-morbid conditions, there is an efficient heat regulation system which enables the body to effectively handle thermal stress. However, in vulnerable groups, especially in elderly over the age of 65 years, infants and individuals with co-morbid cardiovascular and/or respiratory conditions, there is a deficiency in thermoregulation. When temperatures exceed a certain limit, being cold winter spells or heat waves, there is an increase in the number of deaths. In particular, it has been shown that at temperatures above 27 °C, the daily mortality rate increases more rapidly per degree rise compared to when it drops below 27 °C.This is especially of relevance with the current emergency of global warming. Besides the direct effect of temperature rises on human health, global warming will have a negative impact on primary producers and livestock, leading to malnutrition, which will in turn lead to a myriad of health related issues. This is further exacerbated by environmental pollution.Public health measures that countries should follow should include not only health-related information strategies aiming to reduce the exposure to heat for vulnerable individuals and the community, but improved urban planning and reduction in energy consumption, among many others. This will reduce the carbon footprint and help avert global warming, thus reducing mortality.     

Modeling Alternative Sequences of Events in Dynamic Geographic Domains

A model that emphasizes possible alternative sequences of events that occur over time is presented in this article. Representing alternative or branching events captures additional semantics unrealized by linear or non‐branching approaches. Two basic elements of branching, divergence and convergence are discussed. From these elements, many complex branching models can be built capturing a perspective of events that will take place in the future or have occurred in the past. This produces likely sequences of events that a user may compare and analyze using spatial or temporal criteria. The branching events model is especially useful for spatiotemporal decision support systems, as decision‐makers are able to identify alternative locations and times of events and, depending on the context, also identify regions of multiple possible events. A branching events viewer application is presented illustrating a case study based on a tornado response.     

Retrospective and prospective model simulations of sea level rise impacts on Gulf of Mexico coastal marshes and forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida

The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000?km²?<?1?m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000?ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida??s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30?years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64?m, 1?m and 2?m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination.     

High-resolution subtropical summer precipitation derived from dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/DOE reanalysis: how much small-scale information is added by a regional model?

This study assesses the regional-scale summer precipitation produced by the dynamical downscaling of analyzed large-scale fields. The main goal of this study is to investigate how much the regional model adds smaller scale precipitation information that the large-scale fields do not resolve. The modeling region for this study covers the southeastern United States (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) where the summer climate is subtropical in nature, with a heavy influence of regional-scale convection. The coarse resolution (2.5° latitude/longitude) large-scale atmospheric variables from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/DOE reanalysis (R2) are downscaled using the NCEP/Environmental Climate Prediction Center regional spectral model (RSM) to produce precipitation at 20?km resolution for 16 summer seasons (1990?C2005). The RSM produces realistic details in the regional summer precipitation at 20?km resolution. Compared to R2, the RSM-produced monthly precipitation shows better agreement with observations. There is a reduced wet bias and a more realistic spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology compared with the interpolated R2 values. The root mean square errors of the monthly R2 precipitation are reduced over 93% (1,697) of all the grid points in the five states (1,821). The temporal correlation also improves over 92% (1,675) of all grid points such that the domain-averaged correlation increases from 0.38 (R2) to 0.55 (RSM). The RSM accurately reproduces the first two observed eigenmodes, compared with the R2 product for which the second mode is not properly reproduced. The spatial patterns for wet versus dry summer years are also successfully simulated in RSM. For shorter time scales, the RSM resolves heavy rainfall events and their frequency better than R2. Correlation and categorical classification (above/near/below average) for the monthly frequency of heavy precipitation days is also significantly improved by the RSM.     

Numerical simulation of nonlinear dispersive waves propagating over a submerged bar by IB–VOF model

It is a good test for a numerical model to simulate progressive waves propagating over a submerged bar with a relatively high ratio of slopes. In this paper, the combined IB–VOF model is used to predict nonlinear dispersive waves propagating over a submerged bar with both slopes of 1:2. The predicted free surface elevations are compared with the experimental data and numerical results presented by other researchers. The comparison shows that the IB–VOF model is able to provide satisfactory wave profiles in the shallow water with strong nonlinear effects and in the wave transmitted region with strong wave dispersion in particular. Moreover, the wave evolution behind the submerged bar is described in detail, including the spatial wave profile modulation, spectral analysis of the time-series waves, flow velocity and pressure fields, and kinetic energy distribution. The effect of fluid viscosity on the numerical simulations is also studied, and it is found that the effect on the wave evolution considered in this paper is not significant. Finally, the hydrodynamic force acting on the bar is calculated using the IB–VOF model.     

U–Pb and Hf isotopic study of zircons from migmatised amphibolites in the Cathaysia Block: Implications for the early Paleozoic peak tectonothermal event in Southeastern China

Amphibolites occur in a number of localities in the Cathaysia Block, some of them have been migmatised and their protoliths represent basaltic magmas erupted in various tectonic settings. Four migmatised amphibolites were collected from Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces. Cathodo-luminescence images of zircons extracted from the representative amphibolites show unzoned or sector-zoned structure. LA-ICP-MS analysis indicates that most zircons have high Th/U ratios and yield U–Pb zircon ages of 446 ± 5, 435 ± 2, 434 ± 4 and 423 ± 2 Ma, respectively. Lu–Hf isotopic analysis on these zircons gives Hf model ages ranging from 900 to 1200 Ma. Based on lithological observations and previously published geochronological data, we interpret that these U–Pb ages record an important tectonothermal event that led to the migmatization. This early Paleozoic (Caledonian) tectonothermal event in the Southeastern China has a great tectonic implication for the evolutionary history of the Cathaysia Block.     

An empirical model of subcritical bedform migration

The ability to predict bedform migration in rivers is critical for estimating bed material load, yet there is no relation for predicting bedform migration (downstream translation) that covers the full range of conditions under which subcritical bedforms develop. Here, the relation between bedform migration rates and transport stage is explored using a field and several flume data sets. Transport stage is defined as the non‐dimensional Shields stress divided by its value at the threshold for sediment entrainment. Statistically significant positive correlations between both ripple and dune migration rates and transport stage are found. Stratification of the data by the flow depth to grain‐size ratio improved the amount of variability in migration rates that was explained by transport stage to ca 70%. As transport stage increases for a given depth to grain‐size ratio, migration rates increase. For a given transport stage, the migration rate increases as the flow depth to grain‐size ratio gets smaller. In coarser sediment, bedforms move faster than in finer sediment at the same transport stage. Normalization of dune migration rates by the settling velocity of bed sediment partially collapses the data. Given the large amount of variability that arises from combining data sets from different sources, using different equipment, the partial collapse is remarkable and warrants further testing in the laboratory and field.     

Shaping the relation between the mass of supermassive black holes and the velocity dispersion of galactic bulges

I use the fact that the radiation emitted by the accretion disk of supermassive black hole can heat up the surrounding gas in the protogalaxy to achieve hydrostatic equilibrium during the galaxy formation. The correlation between the black hole mass M _BH and velocity dispersion σ thus naturally arises. The result generally agrees with empirical fittings from observational data, even with M _BH ≤10⁶ M _⊙. This model provides a clear picture on how the properties of the galactic supermassive black holes are connected with the kinetic properties of the galactic bulges.     

Physical sedimentology experiments with sulfuric acid solutions: Implications for Mars?

Physical sedimentology experiments have shown that sulfuric acid solutions may have formed some surface features seen on Mars. Recent data returned from Mars show the presence of jarosite, sulfate salts, hematite, phyllosilicates, and opaline silica, all of which precipitate from some terrestrial sulfuric acid solutions. There is a plethora of geochemical, mineralogical, and sedimentological data indicative of past sulfuric acid systems on Mars, but there has never been a comprehensive study published regarding sulfuric acid as a physical sedimentological agent. In the laboratory, we ran liquids of various compositions over sediments in order to test how these liquids entrain, transport, and deposit sediments. Pure water and concentrated sulfuric acid solutions produced the same general features, such as channels, gullies, and alluvial fans. However, sulfuric acid solutions yielded some distinct sedimentary features not produced by pure water runs. These features, narrow, deeply incised channels of consistent widths, rounded discrete fans, and air bubble “craters”, are similar to some Martian landscape features. These experimental results indicate that acid solutions should be considered a possible sedimentological agent on Mars.