Application of spatial prediction techniques to defining three-dimensional landslide shear surface geometry

This study explores the application of interpolating and non-interpolating spatial prediction algorithms to interpreting shear surface geometries. A number of spatial prediction techniques have been tested, and the most appropriate algorithms for the Downie Slide dataset have been selected based on the root mean squared error (RMSE) determined from cross-validation. Visual assessment of reasonable spatial patterns has allowed for final selection of algorithms that produce geologically realistic results. Through this process, the performance of a number of interpolation algorithms has been tested in terms of accuracy and the development of reasonable spatial patterns. The goal of this study has been: (a) to develop a methodology for interpolating three-dimensional shear surface geometries and (b) to assess which interpolation methods are most appropriate for the interpretation of the Downie Slide basal slip surface geometry, based quantitatively on RMSE and qualitatively on the geological “trueness” of the geometric output.     

Participatory action research in a poststructuralist vein

This paper introduces a participatory action research process that has been shaped by poststructuralist thought. We report on the stages and outcomes of a project conducted in the Latrobe Valley, Victoria, Australia, a resource region that has experienced downsizing and privatising of its major employer, the state-owned power industry. Through a participatory action research process involving community members, local Council and academic researchers the singular economic identity of the region was challenged and a more enabling representation developed. Drawing on a discourse of the diverse economy and the asset-based approach to community development the project shed light on the wide range of economic activities residents were already engaged in and the multitude of abilities and ideas they possessed. This exercise produced a new representation of the economy of the Latrobe Valley that helped to shift the vision of what was possible in the region. In the final stage of the project this alternative vision was acted on as groups turned shared ideas into projects and those who were most used to being defined as economically dependent and victims of economic circumstances increasingly came to identify as active and contributing economic subjects in the diverse economy. The paper considers the role of subjectivity, representation and micropolitics in participatory action research and concludes with a reflection on the project’s strengths and weaknesses.     

Ubinas: the evolution of the historically most active volcano in southern Peru

Ubinas volcano has had 23 degassing and ashfall episodes since A.D. 1550, making it the historically most active volcano in southern Peru. Based on fieldwork, on interpretation of aerial photographs and satellite images, and on radiometric ages, the eruptive history of Ubinas is divided into two major periods. Ubinas I (Middle Pleistocene >376 ka) is characterized by lava flow activity that formed the lower part of the edifice. This edifice collapsed and resulted in a debris-avalanche deposit distributed as far as 12 km downstream the Rio Ubinas. Non-welded ignimbrites were erupted subsequently and ponded to a thickness of 150 m as far as 7 km south of the summit. These eruptions probably left a small collapse caldera on the summit of Ubinas I. A 100-m-thick sequence of ash-and-pumice flow deposits followed, filling paleo-valleys 6 km from the summit. Ubinas II, 376 ky to present comprises several stages. The summit cone was built by andesite and dacite flows between 376 and 142 ky. A series of domes grew on the southern flank and the largest one was dated at 250 ky; block-and-ash flow deposits from these domes filled the upper Rio Ubinas valley 10 km to the south. The summit caldera was formed between 25 and 9.7 ky. Ash-flow deposits and two Plinian deposits reflect explosive eruptions of more differentiated magmas. A debris-avalanche deposit (about 1.2 km³) formed hummocks at the base of the 1,000-m-high, fractured and unstable south flank before 3.6 ka. Countless explosive events took place inside the summit caldera during the last 9.7 ky. The last Plinian eruption, dated A.D.1000–1160, produced an andesitic pumice-fall deposit, which achieved a thickness of 25 cm 40 km SE of the summit. Minor eruptions since then show phreatomagmatic characteristics and a wide range in composition (mafic to rhyolitic): the events reported since A.D. 1550 include many degassing episodes, four moderate (VEI 2–3) eruptions, and one VEI 3 eruption in A.D. 1667. Ubinas erupted high-K, calc-alkaline magmas (SiO₂=56 to 71%). Magmatic processes include fractional crystallization and mixing of deeply derived mafic andesites in a shallow magma chamber. Parent magmas have been relatively homogeneous through time but reflect variable conditions of deep-crustal assimilation, as shown in the large variations in Sr/Y and LREE/HREE. Depleted HREE and Y values in some lavas, mostly late mafic rocks, suggest contamination of magmas near the base of the >60-km-thick continental crust. The most recently erupted products (mostly scoria) show a wide range in composition and a trend towards more mafic magmas.Recent eruptions indicate that Ubinas poses a severe threat to at least 5,000 people living in the valley of the Rio Ubinas, and within a 15-km radius of the summit. The threat includes thick tephra falls, phreatomagmatic ejecta, failure of the unstable south flank with subsequent debris avalanches, rain-triggered lahars, and pyroclastic flows. Should Plinian eruptions of the size of the Holocene events recur at Ubinas, tephra fall would affect about one million people living in the Arequipa area 60 km west of the summit.Editorial responsibility: D Dingwell     

A Synoptic Evaluation of Frequencies and Intensities of Extreme Three-and 24-Hour Rainfall in Louisiana*

This research classifies extreme three-hour and 24-hour rainfall events in Louisiana by synoptic weather types (Frontal, Gulf Tropical Disturbance, and Air Mass). These classes were used to analyze differences in frequencies and intensities of extreme rainfall. Significant differences were found in the storm frequencies by weather type. However, no significant differences were detected in rainfall intensities between weather types during either duration. These findings have a bearing on statistical procedures associated with estimating storm probabilities in the region.     

A simulation-based approach for estimating premining water quality: Red Mountain Creek,Colorado

Regulatory agencies are often charged with the task of setting site-specific numeric water quality standards for impaired streams. This task is particularly difficult for streams draining highly mineralized watersheds with past mining activity. Baseline water quality data obtained prior to mining are often non-existent and application of generic water quality standards developed for unmineralized watersheds is suspect given the geology of most watersheds affected by mining. Various approaches have been used to estimate premining conditions, but none of the existing approaches rigorously consider the physical and geochemical processes that ultimately determine instream water quality. An approach based on simulation modeling is therefore proposed herein. The approach utilizes synoptic data that provide spatially-detailed profiles of concentration, streamflow, and constituent load along the study reach. This field data set is used to calibrate a reactive stream transport model that considers the suite of physical and geochemical processes that affect constituent concentrations during instream transport. A key input to the model is the quality and quantity of waters entering the study reach. This input is based on chemical analyses available from synoptic sampling and observed increases in streamflow along the study reach. Given the calibrated model, additional simulations are conducted to estimate premining conditions. In these simulations, the chemistry of mining-affected sources is replaced with the chemistry of waters that are thought to be unaffected by mining (proximal, premining analogues). The resultant simulations provide estimates of premining water quality that reflect both the reduced loads that were present prior to mining and the processes that affect these loads as they are transported downstream. This simulation-based approach is demonstrated using data from Red Mountain Creek, Colorado, a small stream draining a heavily-mined watershed. Model application to the premining problem for Red Mountain Creek is based on limited field reconnaissance and chemical analyses; additional field work and analyses may be needed to develop definitive, quantitative estimates of premining water quality.     

Six-color observations of Algol, 1949–1951

Observations of Algol in six colors, covering both eclipses, are presented. Primary minimum occurred at JD 2433 228.8684.     

Assessment of Plant Community Characteristics in Natural and Human-Altered Coastal Marsh Ecosystems

Salt marsh ecosystems provide many critical ecological functions, yet they are subject to considerable disturbance ranging from direct human alteration to increased inundation due to climate change. We assessed emergent salt marsh plant characteristics in the Tuckerton Peninsula, a large expanse (~ 2000 ha) of highly inundated habitat along the southern New Jersey coast, USA. Key salt marsh plant parameters were monitored in the heavily grid-ditched northern segment, Open Marsh Water Management (OMWM) altered central segment, and the shoreline altered southern segment of the peninsula in the summer months of 2011 and 2013. Plant species composition and three metrics of abundance and structure (maximum canopy height, percent areal cover, and shoot density) were examined among marsh segments, along transects within segments, seasonally by month and between years. Despite seasonal or annual variability, the northern segment of the marsh differed in plant species composition from the central and southern segments. This difference was partly due to greater percent areal cover in the northern segment of upper marsh species such as Spartina patens and Distichlis spicata. S. patens also exhibited higher shoot densities in the northern segment than the central segment. Despite the higher abundance of upper marsh species, marsh surface elevations were lower in the northern segment than in the central or southern segments, suggesting the influence of altered hydrology due to human activities. Understanding current variation in the emergent salt marsh vegetation along the peninsula will help inform future habitat change in other coastal wetlands of New Jersey and the mid-Atlantic region subject to natural and anthropogenic drivers.