Doing social volcanology: exploring volcanic culture in Indonesia

Social volcanology refers to the integration of social science research methods into the traditionally physical domain of volcanology. This emerging multi-methodological research area draws from many disciplines in order to examine hazard-mitigation strategies that are community focused. A key facet of social volcanology is the role of culture and this paper explores the influence of traditional cultural values in relation to the 2006 volcanic crisis at Mt Merapi (Java). This paper describes the complex amalgam of cultural and socio-economic factors that influence community reactions to volcanic hazards and demonstrates the need for interdisciplinary hazard research.     

MGS electron density profiles: Analysis of the peak magnitudes

We analyze here the behavior of the magnitudes of the F₁ and E peaks of the electron density profiles measured by the Radio Science Subsystem of the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft, as a function of solar zenith angle χ and solar flux. For each of the 658 days of data in the six occultation seasons in the northern hemisphere, we choose one profile to analyze, which is that for which the F₁ peak is the median value. We assume that the variations of the measured peak densities can be represented as Aa(cosχ) and as Bb(F_10.7), where F_10.7 is the usual solar flux proxy, appropriately shifted to the orbital position of Mars. To minimize the effect of solar activity, we divide the data into 6 F_10.7 bins, fit the data in each bin, and derive the values of the exponent a and the coefficient AF10.7 for each bin. The median values that we derive for the exponent a is 0.46 for the F₁ peak, and 0.395 for the E peak. To minimize the effect of SZA, we divide the data into eight SZA bins, and derive the exponent b and the coefficient Bχ for each SZA bin. We argue that the last three SZA bins should be excluded because the fits were poor, due partly to the small number of data points in each of these bins. If we do so, the median values of b that we derive are 0.27 and 0.40 for the F₁ and E peaks, respectively. Finally we derive a 3-parameter fit to all the data, which expresses the variability of the peak densities as a function of a^′(cosχ) and b^′(F_10.7) simultaneously. The fitted values of the exponents a^′ and b^′ for the F₁ peak are 0.45 and 0.26, respectively; for the E peak, the values are 0.39 and 0.46, respectively. We compare our results to Chapman theory, and to those of other investigators.     

Inflow and outflow from the accretion disc of the microquasar SS 433: UKIRT spectroscopy

A succession of near-infrared (near-IR) spectroscopic observations, taken nightly throughout an entire cycle of SS 433's orbit, reveal (i) the persistent signature of SS 433's accretion disc, having a rotation speed of  ∼500 km s⁻¹  , (ii) the presence of circumbinary disc recently discovered at optical wavelengths by Blundell, Bowler & Schmidtobreick (2008) and (iii) a much faster outflow than has previously been measured for the disc wind, with a terminal velocity of  ∼1500 km s⁻¹  . The increased wind terminal velocity results in a mass-loss rate of  ∼10⁻⁴ M_⊙ yr⁻¹  . These, together with the newly (upwardly) determined masses for the components of the SS 433 system, result in an accurate diagnosis of the extent to which SS 433 has super-Eddington flows. Our observations imply that the size of the companion star is comparable with the semiminor axis of the orbit which is given by     , where e is the eccentricity. Our relatively spectral resolution at these near-IR wavelengths has enabled us to deconstruct the different components that comprise the Brackett-γ (Brγ) line in this binary system, and their physical origins. With this line being dominated throughout our series of observations by the disc wind, and the accretion disc itself being only a minority (∼15 per cent) contribution, we caution against use of the unresolved Brγ line intensity as an 'accretion signature' in X-ray binaries or microquasars in any quantitative way.     

Individual lava flow thicknesses in Oceanus Procellarum and Mare Serenitatis determined from Clementine multispectral data

We use multispectral reflectance data from the lunar Clementine mission to investigate the impact ejecta deposits of simple craters in two separate lunar mare basalt regions, one in Oceanus Procellarum and one in Mare Serenitatis. Over 100 impact craters are studied, and for a number of these we observe differences between the TiO₂ (and FeO) contents of their ejecta deposits and the lava flow units in which they are located. We demonstrate that, in the majority of cases, these differences cannot plausibly be attributed to uncorrected maturity effects. These observations, coupled with morphometric crater relationships that provide maximum crater excavation depths, allow the investigation of sub-surface lava flow stratigraphy. We provide estimated average thicknesses for a number of lava flow units in the two study regions, ranging from ∼80 m to ∼600 m. In the case of the Serenitatis study area, our results are consistent with the presence of sub-surface horizons inferred from recent radar sounding measurements from the JAXA Kaguya spacecraft. The average lava flow thicknesses we obtain are used to make estimates of the average flux of volcanic material in these regions. These are in broad agreement with previous studies, suggesting that the variation in mare basalt types we observe with depth is similar to the lateral variations identified at the surface.     

Eclipse reappearances of Io: Time-resolved spectroscopy (1.9-4.2 μm)

We obtained time-resolved, near-infrared spectra of Io during the 60-90 min following its reappearance from eclipse by Jupiter on five occasions in 2004. The purpose was to search for spectral changes, particularly in the well-known SO₂ frost absorption bands, that would indicate surface-atmosphere exchange of gaseous SO₂ induced by temperature changes during eclipse. These observations were a follow-on to eclipse spectroscopy observations in which Bellucci et al. [Bellucci et al., 2004. Icarus 172, 141-148] reported significant changes in the strengths of two strong SO₂ bands in data acquired with the VIMS instrument aboard the Cassini spacecraft. One of the bands (4.07 μm [ν₁ + ν₃]) observed by Bellucci et al. is visible from ground-based observatories and is included in our data. We detected no changes in Io’s spectrum at any of the five observed events during the approximately 60-90 min during which spectra were obtained following Io’s emergence from Jupiter’s shadow. The areas of the three strongest SO₂ bands in the region 3.5-4.15 μm were measured for each spectrum; the variation of the band areas with time does not exceed that which can be explained by the Io’s few degrees of axial rotation during the intervals of observation, and in no case does the change in band strength approach that seen in the Cassini VIMS data. Our data are of sufficient quality and resolution to show the weak 2.198 μm (4549.6 cm⁻¹) 4ν₁ band of SO₂ frost on Io for what we believe is the first time. At one of the events (June 22, 2004), we began the acquisition of spectra ∼6 min before Io reappeared from Jupiter’s shadow, during which time it was detected through its own thermal emission. No SO₂ bands were superimposed on the purely thermal spectrum on this occasion, suggesting that the upper limit to condensed SO₂ in the vertical column above Io’s surface was ∼4 × 10⁻⁵ g cm⁻².     

Temperature oscillations may shorten male lifespan via natural selection in utero

Much literature argues that natural selection has conserved mechanisms that spontaneously abort fetuses, particularly males, least likely to survive in prevailing environmental conditions including cold ambient temperature. These reports imply the hypothesis that males in gestation during relatively warm periods who confront relatively cold climates in early life live, on average, shorter lives than other males. We estimate the effect of warm-to-cold temperature shifts on the observed lifespan at age one of males born in Sweden from 1850 through 1915. We test this hypothesis using annual cohort lifespan at age 1?year for Swedish males from 1850 to 1915. For our independent variable, we score a series “1” for birth cohorts that experienced relatively warm temperatures in utero but relatively cold temperatures from age 1 through 4?years, and “0” for other cohorts. We use time-series methods, which adjust the data to remove autocorrelation, to estimate the association between these variables. Consistent with theory, males in gestation during relatively warm times who encounter relatively cold temperatures in early life have a shorter lifespan than other males. The association survives adjustment for the longevity of females as well as the main effect of temperatures during gestation and early life. Our findings imply that the increased frequency and amplitude of temperature shifts expected from climate change could influence which humans survive gestation and how long they live.     

Understanding Causes and Impacts of the Dinoflagellate, Cochlodinium polykrikoides, Blooms in the Chesapeake Bay

During August and September 2007, the lower Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries experienced a massive bloom of Cochlodinium polykrikoides Margalef (>10⁴ cells per milliliter) that persisted for over a month, was extremely patchy, and at times penetrated into the Atlantic Ocean. The onset of the bloom coincided with a period of intense rainfall and stormwater runoff after a protracted summer drought period. Genetic evidence showed this species to be distinct from many Asian strains but similar to other North American strains. Populations dominated by C. polykrikoides took up a variety of nitrogenous compounds to support their growth and were able to mobilize additional sources of organic nutrients through peptide hydrolysis. Bioassays determined that C. polykrikoides exerted a lethal affect on juvenile fish and shellfish, causing 100% mortality of juvenile fish (Cyprinodon variegates) in less than 24 h and 20% mortality in juvenile American oysters (~21 mm; Crassostrea virginica) within 72 h.