Ubinas: the evolution of the historically most active volcano in southern Peru

Ubinas volcano has had 23 degassing and ashfall episodes since A.D. 1550, making it the historically most active volcano in southern Peru. Based on fieldwork, on interpretation of aerial photographs and satellite images, and on radiometric ages, the eruptive history of Ubinas is divided into two major periods. Ubinas I (Middle Pleistocene >376 ka) is characterized by lava flow activity that formed the lower part of the edifice. This edifice collapsed and resulted in a debris-avalanche deposit distributed as far as 12 km downstream the Rio Ubinas. Non-welded ignimbrites were erupted subsequently and ponded to a thickness of 150 m as far as 7 km south of the summit. These eruptions probably left a small collapse caldera on the summit of Ubinas I. A 100-m-thick sequence of ash-and-pumice flow deposits followed, filling paleo-valleys 6 km from the summit. Ubinas II, 376 ky to present comprises several stages. The summit cone was built by andesite and dacite flows between 376 and 142 ky. A series of domes grew on the southern flank and the largest one was dated at 250 ky; block-and-ash flow deposits from these domes filled the upper Rio Ubinas valley 10 km to the south. The summit caldera was formed between 25 and 9.7 ky. Ash-flow deposits and two Plinian deposits reflect explosive eruptions of more differentiated magmas. A debris-avalanche deposit (about 1.2 km³) formed hummocks at the base of the 1,000-m-high, fractured and unstable south flank before 3.6 ka. Countless explosive events took place inside the summit caldera during the last 9.7 ky. The last Plinian eruption, dated A.D.1000–1160, produced an andesitic pumice-fall deposit, which achieved a thickness of 25 cm 40 km SE of the summit. Minor eruptions since then show phreatomagmatic characteristics and a wide range in composition (mafic to rhyolitic): the events reported since A.D. 1550 include many degassing episodes, four moderate (VEI 2–3) eruptions, and one VEI 3 eruption in A.D. 1667. Ubinas erupted high-K, calc-alkaline magmas (SiO₂=56 to 71%). Magmatic processes include fractional crystallization and mixing of deeply derived mafic andesites in a shallow magma chamber. Parent magmas have been relatively homogeneous through time but reflect variable conditions of deep-crustal assimilation, as shown in the large variations in Sr/Y and LREE/HREE. Depleted HREE and Y values in some lavas, mostly late mafic rocks, suggest contamination of magmas near the base of the >60-km-thick continental crust. The most recently erupted products (mostly scoria) show a wide range in composition and a trend towards more mafic magmas.Recent eruptions indicate that Ubinas poses a severe threat to at least 5,000 people living in the valley of the Rio Ubinas, and within a 15-km radius of the summit. The threat includes thick tephra falls, phreatomagmatic ejecta, failure of the unstable south flank with subsequent debris avalanches, rain-triggered lahars, and pyroclastic flows. Should Plinian eruptions of the size of the Holocene events recur at Ubinas, tephra fall would affect about one million people living in the Arequipa area 60 km west of the summit.Editorial responsibility: D Dingwell     

Late survival of woodland contrasts with rapid limnological changes following settlement at Kalmanstjörn,Mývatnssveit,northeast Iceland

The settlement of Iceland is known to have had profound impacts on vegetation and landscape stability, but there remain uncertainties around the spatial variability and timing of environmental change, and the impacts of settlement on aquatic ecosystems. Here a new multiproxy palaeoenvironmental reconstruction spanning the last 3000 years is presented from Kalmanstjörn, a small lake in Mývatnssveit, northeast Iceland. Sedimentology, pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs, and geochemical proxies, dated using tephrochronology, are used to reconstruct terrestrial vegetation, landscape stability and aquatic ecosystems. The data reveal complex environmental dynamics after settlement. At this site, substantial tree populations persisted until the late 15th century, in strong contrast to the rapid deforestation shown by almost all other records from Iceland. The eventual loss of woodland may have been caused by changes in direct human activity and the location of extensive grazing, in combination with Little Ice Age climatic cooling. The loss of woodland was accompanied by increased soil erosion. Conversely, the lake ecosystem showed an immediate response to settlement, becoming more productive for several centuries, perhaps in response to increased availability of nutrients from grazing herbivores. The late persistence of woodland in the Kalmanstjörn record adds to our understanding of the spatial variations in ecosystem responses to settlement in Iceland, while the evidence for decoupling of the aquatic and terrestrial systems suggests that palaeolimnological reconstructions focusing on aquatic ecosystem responses may be important new sources of information on the wider ecological consequences of human settlement.     

How do management alternatives of fast-growing forests affect water quantity and quality in southeastern Brazil? Insights from a paired catchment experiment

Fast-growing forest plantations have been expanding in Brazil in the last 50 years, which reach productivities by over 40 m³ ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in reduced rotation between 5 and 15 years. In the 1990s, environmental warnings about these plantations guided research projects seeking to understand their effects on water and propose forest management actions to minimize them. The assessment of forest management effects on water resources is conducted by long-term experiments in paired catchments. In this paper we present results of some studies conducted at the hydrological monitoring centre of Itatinga Experimental Forest Station, of the University of São Paulo, where hydrological monitoring began in 1987, and currently include three catchments (83–98 ha) under different forest management regimes: short-rotation Eucalyptus plantation, long-term forest plantation mosaic and native forest restoration. Results show that at similar conditions observed at study area including deep soils and good natural water regulation, hydrological effects vary according to the forest management regime adopted, increasing water consumption and making the flow regime vulnerable to intra- and inter-annual seasonality. Regarding water quality, weekly sampling results showed suspended sediments and nitrate concentrations below water quality thresholds criteria by silvicultural operations, and the effects were transient but higher concentrations of nutrients were observed in intensive management regime. In the study area, reducing the management intensity of forest plantation by increasing the rotation time, adopting forest age mosaic and avoiding the coppice technique are alternative choices that reduced water use and increased flow regulation. Different adopted forest management schemes directly affected water use, showing that in water-deficit tropical regions, management regime of fast-growing forest plantations controls water availability.     

The effect of African growth on future global energy,emissions, and regional development

Today Africa is a small emitter, but it has a large and faster-than-average growing population and per capita income that could drive future energy demand and, if unconstrained, emissions. This paper uses a multi-model comparison to characterize the potential future energy development for Continental and Sub-Saharan Africa under different assumptions about population and income. Our results suggest that population and economic growth rates will strongly influence Africa’s future energy use and emissions. We show that affluence is only one face of the medal and the range of future emissions is also contingent on technological and political factors. Higher energy intensity improvements occur when Africa grows faster. In contrast, climate intensity varies less with economic growth and it is mostly driven by climate policy. African emissions could account for between 5 % and 20 % of global emissions, with Sub-Saharan Africa contributing between 4 % and 10 % of world emissions in 2100. In all scenarios considered, affluence levels remain low until the middle of the century, suggesting that the population could remain dependent on traditional bioenergy to meet most residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, even by mid-century they do not reach levels observed in developed countries today.     

Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management

This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 1 to 10 % per annum reaching 1 to 35 % of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 10 to 50 % of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 % of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 % of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation and macroeconomic costs of climate policies. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels, but with potential implications for climate outcomes. Finally, we find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. The results suggest opportunities, but also imply challenges. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of large-scale global bioenergy is merited.     

EU 20-20-20 energy policy as a model for global climate mitigation

The EU has established an aggressive portfolio with explicit near-term targets for 2020 – to reduce GHG emissions by 20%, rising to 30% if the conditions are right, to increase the share of renewable energy to 20%, and to make a 20% improvement in energy efficiency – intended to be the first step in a long-term strategy to limit climate forcing. The effectiveness and cost of extending these measures in time are considered along with the ambition and propagation to the rest of the world. Numerical results are reported and analysed for the contribution of the portfolio's various elements through a set of sensitivity experiments. It is found that the hypothetical programme leads to very substantial reductions in GHG emissions, dramatic increases in use of electricity, and substantial changes in land-use including reduced deforestation, but at the expense of higher food prices. The GHG emissions reductions are driven primarily by the direct limits. Although the carbon price is lower under the hypothetical protocol than it would be under the emissions cap alone, the economic cost of the portfolio is higher, between 13% and 22%.     

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.     

Eolian Deposition and Soil Fertility in a Prehistoric Agricultural Complex in Central Arizona,USA

Prehistoric farmers in arid and semiarid ecosystems commonly used rock alignments to concentrate water and sediments on their fields. Previous research has emphasized the importance of runoff from organic matter‐rich uplands as a mechanism for soil nutrient replenishment. However, eolian inputs to these dryland ecosystems might also contribute substantially to mineral‐derived nutrient pools. We explored the relative importance of eolian deposition, prehistoric agriculture, and the presence of rock alignments on soil properties in a semiarid grassland in Arizona. Subsurface soils behind natural rock alignments are finer in texture than soils unbound by rock alignments, while subsurface soils behind agricultural rock alignments coarsen relative to unbound soils. Neither rock alignments nor estimated crop yields had detectable effects on mineral‐derived nutrient pools. In contrast, eolian deposition is an important source of soil mass and nutrients to modern soils. While dust deposition likely reduced soil heterogeneity across this landscape, it could have also contributed to the sustainability of prehistoric agriculture.     

Sequence stratigraphy of the Mancos Shale,lower Tres Hermanos Formation,and coeval middle Cenomanian to middle Turonian strata,southern New Mexico,USA

Sequence stratigraphic analysis of four widely spaced outcrops of middle Cenomanian to middle Turonian strata deposited in the Western Interior foreland basin in southern New Mexico, USA, defines ten sequence boundaries in a marine shale‐rich interval ca 200 m thick. The majority of sequence boundaries are based on basinward shifts in lithofacies characterized by either a non‐Waltherian contact between distal‐bar or lower shoreface sandstone and underlying lower offshore shale, or an erosional contact between distal‐bar or lower shoreface sandstone and underlying upper offshore shale. The sequence boundaries commonly correlate basinward to packages of storm‐deposited sandstone and to beds of sandy grainstone composed of winnowed inoceramid shell fragments. In several cases, however, the sequence boundaries pass basinward into presumably conformable successions of lower offshore shale. Maximum flooding surfaces within the sequences are represented by one or more beds of locally phosphatized globiginerid wackestone and packstone or exist within a conformable succession of lower offshore shale. Following initial south/south‐westward transgression into the study area, the regional trend of palaeoeshorelines was north‐west to south‐east, although isopach data indicate that lobes of sandstone periodically spread south‐eastward across the study area. The ten sequences in the study area are arranged into a third‐order composite megasequence that is characterized by overall upward‐deepening followed by upward‐shallowing of sequences. The composite megasequence is similar but not identical to the previously established T‐1 transgression and R‐1 regression in New Mexico. Based on radioisotopic dates of bentonites, the average frequency of the sequences within the study area was ca 327 kyr, which is consistent with fourth‐order cycles of ca 400 kyr interpreted in coeval marine strata elsewhere in the world.     

Surface Estimation for Multiple Misaligned Point Sets

Mathematical Geosciences - Two common tasks when processing point cloud data sets are surface estimation and point cloud registration. In this paper, a statistical approach is developed to solve...