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Melanie Shaw Miles J. Furnas Katharina Fabricius David Haynes Steve Carter Jochen F. Mueller 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(1):113-122
Pesticide runoff from agriculture poses a threat to water quality in the world heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and sensitive monitoring tools are needed to detect these pollutants. This study investigated the utility of passive samplers in this role through deployment during a wet and dry season at river mouths, two near-shore regions and an offshore region. The nearshore marine environment was shown to be contaminated with pesticides in both the dry and wet seasons (average water concentrations of 1.3-3.8 ng L−1 and 2.2-6.4 ng L−1, respectively), while no pesticides were detected further offshore. Continuous monitoring of two rivers over 13 months showed waters flowing to the GBR were contaminated with herbicides (diuron, atrazine, hexazinone) year round, with highest average concentrations present during summer (350 ng L−1). The use of passive samplers has enabled identification of insecticides in GBR waters which have not been reported in the literature previously. 相似文献
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Jenő Reiczigel Katharina Brugger Franz Rubel Norbert Solymosi Zsolt Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(3):455-462
The Usutu virus is an arbovirus transmitted by mosquitoes and causing disease in birds. The virus was detected in Austria
for the first time in 2001, while a major outbreak occurred in 2003. Rubel et al. (2008) developed a nine-compartment deterministic SEIR model to explain the spread of the disease. We extended this to a hierarchical
Bayes model assuming random variation in temperature data, in reproduction data of birds, and in the number of birds found
to be infected. The model was implemented in R, combined with the FORTRAN subroutine for the original deterministic model.
Analysis was made by MCMC using a random walk Metropolis scheme. Posterior means, medians, and credible intervals were calculated
for the parameters. The hierarchical Bayes approach proved to be fruitful in extending the deterministic model into a stochastic
one. It allowed for Bayesian point and interval estimation and quantification of uncertainty of predictions. The analysis
revealed that some model parameters were not identifiable; therefore we kept constant some of them and analyzed others conditional
on them. Identifiability problems are common in models aiming to mirror the mechanism of the process, since parameters with
natural interpretation are likely to exhibit interrelationships. This study illustrated that Bayesian modeling combined with
conditional analysis may help in those cases. Its application to the Usutu model improved model fit and revealed the structure
of interdependencies between model parameters: it demonstrated that determining some of them experimentally would enable estimation
of the others, except one of them, from available data. 相似文献
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To establish a natural background and its temporal and spatial variability for the area around Casey Station in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, the authors studied major and trace element concentrations and the distribution of organic matter in marine and lacustrine sediments. A wide range of natural variability in trace metal concentrations was identified between sites and within a time scale of 9 ka (e.g., Ni 5–37 mg kg−1, Cu 20–190 mg kg−1, Zn 50–300 mg kg−1, Pb 4.5–34 mg kg−1). TOC concentrations are as high as 3 wt.% at the marine sites and 20 wt.% at the lacustrine sites, and indicate highly productive ecosystems. These data provide a background upon which the extent of human impact can be established, and existing data indicate negligible levels of disturbance. Geochemical and lithological data for a lacustrine sediment core from Beall Lake confirm earlier interpretation of recent climatic changes based on diatom distribution, and the onset of deglaciation in the northern part of the Windmill Islands between 8.6 and 8.0 ka BP. The results demonstrate that geochemical and lithological data can not only be used to define natural background values, but also to assess long-term climatic changes of a specific environment. Other sites, however, preserve a completely different sedimentary record. Therefore, inferred climatic record, and differences between sites, can be ascribed to differences in elevation, distance from the shore, water depth, and local catchment features. The extreme level of spatial variability seems to be a feature of Antarctic coastal areas, and demonstrates that results obtained from a specific site cannot be easily generalized to a larger area. 相似文献
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We analyze the interaction of climate and development policy that has taken place since the early 1990s. Increasing dissatisfaction
about the results of traditional development cooperation and the appeal of climate policy as a new policy field led to a rapid
reorientation of aid flows. At the turn of the century, over 7% of aid flows were spent on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation.
However, the contribution of emissions mitigation projects to the central development objective of poverty reduction as specified
in the Millennium Development Goals is limited and other project types are likely to be much more effective. Adaptation to
climate change can be expected to have higher synergies with poverty alleviation than mitigation, primarily through its impact
on health, the conservation of arable land and the protection against natural disasters. An analysis of the Clean Development
Mechanism shows that projects addressing the poor directly are very rare; even small renewable energy projects in rural areas
tend to benefit rich farmers and the urban population. Use of development aid for CDM projects and / or their preparation
via capacity building is thus clearly not warranted. We further analyze whether the use of development aid for climate policy
could be justified as a countermeasure against the emission increase related to successful development itself. However, countries
that are achieving an improvement of human development from a low level are unlikely to increase their energy consumption
substantially. Only at a level where the middle class expands rapidly, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions soar.
Thus targeting middle class energy consumption by appliance efficiency standards and public transport-friendly urban planning
are the most effective measures to address developing country emissions. Rural renewable energy provision in poor countries
has a much higher impact on poverty, but a much lower impact on greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude that while there are
valid reasons for long-term collaboration with emerging economies on greenhouse gas mitigation, there should be a separate
budget line for such activities to avoid “obfuscation” of a decline of resources aimed at poverty alleviation. Nevertheless,
mitigation will remain attractive for donors because it ensures quick disbursements and relatively simple measures of success.
Moreover, mitigation activities in developing countries provide politicians in industrialized countries with a welcome strategy
to divert the attention of their constituencies from the lack of success in reducing greenhouse gas emissions domestically. 相似文献
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Ahmadi Navid Heck Katharina Rolle Massimo Helmig Rainer Mosthaf Klaus 《Computational Geosciences》2021,25(5):1493-1507
Computational Geosciences - Multicomponent gas transport in porous media and at the interface between porous media and free flow occurs in a wide range of technical and environmental systems.... 相似文献
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Katharina Anders Sabrina Marx Julia Boike Benjamin Herfort Evan James Wilcox Moritz Langer Philip Marsh Bernhard Höfle 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(7):1589-1600
This paper investigates different methods for quantifying thaw subsidence using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) point clouds. Thaw subsidence is a slow (millimetre to centimetre per year) vertical displacement of the ground surface common in ice-rich permafrost-underlain landscapes. It is difficult to quantify thaw subsidence in tundra areas as they often lack stable reference frames. Also, there is no solid ground surface to serve as a basis for elevation measurements, due to a continuous moss–lichen cover. We investigate how an expert-driven method improves the accuracy of benchmark measurements at discrete locations within two sites using multitemporal TLS data of a 1-year period. Our method aggregates multiple experts’ determination of the ground surface in 3D point clouds, collected in a web-based tool. We then compare this to the performance of a fully automated ground surface determination method. Lastly, we quantify ground surface displacement by directly computing multitemporal point cloud distances, thereby extending thaw subsidence observation to an area-based assessment. Using the expert-driven quantification as reference, we validate the other methods, including in-situ benchmark measurements from a conventional field survey. This study demonstrates that quantifying the ground surface using 3D point clouds is more accurate than the field survey method. The expert-driven method achieves an accuracy of 0.1 ± 0.1 cm. Compared to this, in-situ benchmark measurements by single surveyors yield an accuracy of 0.4 ± 1.5 cm. This difference between the two methods is important, considering an observed displacement of 1.4 cm at the sites. Thaw subsidence quantification with the fully automatic benchmark-based method achieves an accuracy of 0.2 ± 0.5 cm and direct point cloud distance computation an accuracy of 0.2 ± 0.9 cm. The range in accuracy is largely influenced by properties of vegetation structure at locations within the sites. The developed methods enable a link of automated quantification and expert judgement for transparent long-term monitoring of permafrost subsidence. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd 相似文献