Validation of official erosion modelling based on high‐resolution radar rain data by aerial photo erosion classification

The universal soil loss equation (USLE) is the most frequently applied erosion prediction model and it is also implemented as an official decision‐making instrument for agricultural regulations. The USLE itself has been already validated using different approaches. Additional errors, however, arise from input data and interpolation procedures that become necessary for field‐specific predictions on a national scale for administrative purposes. In this study, predicted event soil loss using the official prediction system in Bavaria (Germany) was validated by comparison with aerial photo erosion classifications of 8100 fields. Values for the USLE factors were mainly taken from the official Bavarian high‐resolution (5 × 5 m²) erosion cadastre. As series of erosion events were examined, the cover and management factor was replaced by the soil loss ratio. The event erosivity factor was calculated from high‐resolution (1 × 1 km², 5 min), rain gauge‐adjusted radar rain data (RADOLAN). Aerial photo erosion interpretation worked sufficiently well and average erosion predictions and visual classifications correlated closely. This was also true for data broken down to individual factors and different crops. There was no reason to assume a general invalidity of the USLE and the official parametrization procedures. Event predictions mainly suffered from errors in the assumed crop stage period and tillage practices, which do not reflect interannual and farm‐specific variation. In addition, the resolution of radar data (1 km²) did not seem to be sufficient to predict short‐term erosion on individual fields given the strong spatial gradients within individual rains. The quality of the input data clearly determined prediction quality. Differences between USLE predictions and observations are most likely caused by parametrization weaknesses but not by a failure of the model itself. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variable Tl,Pb, and Cd concentrations and isotope compositions of enstatite and ordinary chondrites—Evidence for volatile element mobilization and decay of extinct 205Pb

New Tl, Pb, and Cd concentration and Tl, Pb isotope data are presented for enstatite as well as L- and LL-type ordinary chondrites, with additional Cd stable isotope results for the former. All three chondrite suites have Tl and Cd contents that vary by more than 1–2 orders of magnitude but Pb concentrations are more uniform, as a result of terrestrial Pb contamination. Model calculations based on Pb isotope compositions indicate that for more than half of the samples, more than 50% of the measured Pb contents are due to addition of modern terrestrial Pb. In part, this is responsible for the relatively young and imprecise Pb-Pb ages determined for EH, L, and LL chondrites, which are hence only of limited chronological utility. In contrast, four particularly pristine EL chondrites define a precise Pb-Pb cooling age of 4559 ± 6 Ma. The enstatite chondrites (ECs) have highly variable ε^114/110Cd of between about +3 and +70 due to stable isotope fractionation from thermal and shock metamorphism. Furthermore, nearly all enstatite meteorites display ε²⁰⁵Tl values from −3.3 to +0.8, while a single anomalous sample is highly fractionated in both Tl and Cd isotopes. The majority of the ECs thereby define a correlation of ε²⁰⁵Tl with ε^114/110Cd, which suggests that at least some of the Tl isotope variability reflects stable isotope fractionation rather than radiogenic ingrowth of ²⁰⁵Tl from ²⁰⁵Pb decay. Considering L chondrites, most ε²⁰⁵Tl values range between −4 and +1, while two outliers with ε²⁰⁵Tl ≤ −10 are indicative of stable isotope fractionation. Considering only those L chondrites which are least likely to feature Pb contamination or stable Tl isotope effects, the results are in accord with the former presence of live ²⁰⁵Pb on the parent body, with an initial ²⁰⁵Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = (1.5 ± 1.4) × 10⁻⁴, which suggests late equilibration of the Pb-Tl system 26–113 Ma after carbonaceous chondrites (CCs). The LL chondrites display highly variable ε²⁰⁵Tl values from −12.5 to +14.9, also indicative of stable isotope effects. However, the data for three pristine LL3/LL4 chondrites display an excellent correlation between ε²⁰⁵Tl and ²⁰⁴Pb/²⁰³Tl. This defines an initial ²⁰⁵Pb/²⁰⁴Pb of (1.4 ± 0.3) × 10⁻⁴, equivalent to a ²⁰⁵Pb-²⁰⁵Tl cooling age of 55 + 12/−24 Ma (31–67 Ma) after CCs.     

Grid point surface air temperature calculations with a fast turnaround: Combining the results of IMAGE and a GCM

This paper describes a methodology that combines the outputs of (1) the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE Version 1.0) of the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) (given a greenhouse gas emission policy, this model can estimate the effects such as global mean surface air temperature change for a wide variety of policies) and (2) ECHAM-1/LSG, the Global Circulation Model (GCM) of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. The combination enables one to calculate grid point surface air temperature changes for different scenarios with a turnaround time that is much quicker than that for a GCM. The methodology is based upon a geographical pattern of the ratio of grid point temperature change to global mean values during a certain period of the simulation, as calculated by ECHAM-1/LSG for the 1990 Scenarios A and D of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A procedure, based upon signal-to noise ratios in the outputs, enabled us to estimate where we have confidence in the methodology; this is at about 23% to 83% of the total of 2,048 grid points, depending upon the scenario and the decade in the simulation. It was found that the methodology enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of the GCM-predicted grid point temperature changes. These estimates were within 0.5K (0.25K) throughout the 100 years of a given simulation for at least 79% (74%) of the grid points where we are confident in applying the methodology. The temperature ratio pattern from Scenario A enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of temperature change within 0.5K (0.25K) in Scenario D for at least 88% (68%) of the grid points where we have confidence; indicating that the methodology is transferable to other scenarios. Tests with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM indicated, however, that a temperature ratio pattern may have to be developed for each GCM. The methodology, using a temperature ratio pattern from the 1990 IPCC Scenario A and involving IMAGE, gave gridded surface air temperature patterns for the 1992 IPCC radiative-forcing Scenarios C and E and the RIVM emission Scenario B; none of these scenarios has been simulated by ECHAM-1/LSG. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming.The work reported by the authors was carried out during their stay at the project Forestry and Climate Change of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.     

A geomorphological seabed classification for the Weddell Sea,Antarctica

Sea floor morphology plays an important role in many scientific disciplines such as ecology, hydrology and sedimentology since geomorphic features can act as physical controls for e.g. species distribution, oceanographically flow-path estimations or sedimentation processes. In this study, we provide a terrain analysis of the Weddell Sea based on the 500 m × 500 m resolution bathymetry data provided by the mapping project IBCSO. Seventeen seabed classes are recognized at the sea floor based on a fine and broad scale Benthic Positioning Index calculation highlighting the diversity of the glacially carved shelf. Beside the morphology, slope, aspect, terrain rugosity and hillshade were calculated and supplied to the data archive PANGAEA. Applying zonal statistics to the geomorphic features identified unambiguously the shelf edge of the Weddell Sea with a width of 45–70 km and a mean depth of about 1200 m ranging from 270 m to 4300 m. A complex morphology of troughs, flat ridges, pinnacles, steep slopes, seamounts, outcrops, and narrow ridges, structures with approx. 5–7 km width, build an approx. 40–70 km long swath along the shelf edge. The study shows where scarps and depressions control the connection between shelf and abyssal and where high and low declination within the scarps e.g. occur. For evaluation purpose, 428 grain size samples were added to the seabed class map. The mean values of mud, sand and gravel of those samples falling into a single seabed class was calculated, respectively, and assigned to a sediment texture class according to a common sediment classification scheme.     

Hydrous Silicates and Water on Venus

We used thermochemical equilibrium calculations to predict stabilities of pure rock-forming hydrous silicates on Venus' surface as a function of elevation, atmospheric H₂O and SO₂concentrations, and oxygen fugacity (f_O2). About 50 different hydrous silicates were included in our calculations. We find that many of these are unstable on Venus's surface because of the low atmospheric H₂O content of 30–45 parts per million by volume (ppmv) and the high surface temperatures (660 K on Maxwell Montes to 740 K in the plains). Hydrous Fe²⁺-bearing silicates are unstable due to oxidation to magnetite and/or hematite at the f_O2of the near-surface atmosphere. Ca-bearing hydrous silicates are unstable because of sulfatization to anhydrite. Some Fe-free micas (e.g., eastonite, eastonite–phlogopite micas), and some alkali amphiboles might be stable on Venus' surface, especially in the lower temperature highlands. We discuss hydrous mineral formation in the interior and on the surface of Venus. We review the literature on mica and amphibole thermal decomposition and find that dehydration of phlogopitic micas and fibrous amphiboles produces (metastable) dehydroxylated anhydrides that decompose to more stable minerals at temperatures hundreds of degrees higher than the onset of dehydroxylation. These observations raise the possibility that anhydrides formed from hydrous silicates, which may have been present during a wetter period in Venus' history, may persist somewhere on Venus' present surface. We discuss experiments that could be used on future spacecraft missions to detect hydroxyl in rocks and hydrous silicates on Venus. Finally, we review estimates of the amount of water and OH (hydroxyl) in the Earth's mantle. Based on this review, we suggest that even if no hydrous silicates are stable on Venus, significant amounts of water are plausibly present in surface rocks as OH in nominally anhydrous minerals.     

Presolar grains from meteorites: Remnants from the early times of the solar system

This review provides an introduction to presolar grains - preserved stardust from the interstellar molecular cloud from which our solar system formed - found in primitive meteorites. We describe the search for the presolar components, the currently known presolar mineral populations, and the chemical and isotopic characteristics of the grains and dust-forming stars to identify the grains’ most probable stellar sources.     

Modern and historical tropical cyclone and tsunami deposits at the coast of Myanmar: Implications for their identification and preservation in the geological record

The catastrophic storm surge of tropical cyclone Nargis in May 2008 demonstrated Myanmar's exposure to coastal flooding. The investigation of sediments left by tropical cyclone Nargis and its predecessors is an important contribution to prepare for the impact of future tropical cyclones and tsunamis in the region, because they may extend the database for long-term hazard assessment beyond the relatively short instrumental and historical record. This study, for the first time, presents deposits of modern and historical tropical cyclones and tsunamis from the coast of Myanmar. The aim is to establish regional sedimentary characteristics that may help to identify and discriminate cyclones and tsunamis in the geological record, and to document post-depositional changes due to tropical weathering in the first years after deposition. These findings if used to interpret older deposits will extend the existing instrumental record of flooding events in Myanmar. Evaluating deposits that can be related to specific events, such as the 2006 tropical cyclone Mala and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, indicates similar sedimentary characteristics for both types of sediments. Landward thinning and fining trends, littoral sediment sources and sharp lower contacts allow for the differentiation from underlying deposits, while discrimination between tropical cyclone and tsunami origin is challenging based on the applied methods. The modern analogues also demonstrate a rather low preservation potential of the sand sheets due to carbonate dissolution, formation of organic top soils, and coastal erosion. However, in coastal depressions sand sheets of sufficient thickness (>10 cm) may be preserved where the shoreline is prograding or stable. In the most seaward swale of a beach-ridge plain at the Rakhine coast, two sand sheets have been identified in addition to the deposits of 2006 tropical cyclone Mala. Based on a combination of optically stimulated luminescence, radiocarbon and ¹³⁷Cs dating, the younger sand layer is related to 1982 tropical cyclone Gwa, while the older sand layer is most probably the result of an event that took place prior to 1950. Comparison with historical records indicates that the archive is only sensitive to tropical cyclones of category 4 (or higher) with landfall directly in or a few tens of kilometres north of the study area. While the presented tropical cyclone records are restricted to the last 100 years, optically stimulated luminescence ages of the beach ridges indicate that the swales landward of the one investigated in this study might provide tropical cyclone information for at least the past 700 years.