Assessing climate change impacts on California hydropower generation and ancillary services provision

Climate change is already affecting species and their distributions. Distributional range changes have occurred and are projected to intensify for many widespread plants and animals, creating associated risks to many ecosystems. Here, we estimate the climate change-related risks to the species in globally significant biodiversity conservation areas over a range of climate scenarios, assessing their value as climate refugia. In particular, we quantify the aggregated benefit of countries’ emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement), and also of further constraining global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, against an unmitigated scenario of 4.5 °C warming. We also quantify the contribution that can be made by using smart spatial conservation planning to facilitate some levels of autonomous (i.e. natural) adaptation to climate change by dispersal. We find that without mitigation, on average 33% of each conservation area can act as climate refugium (or 18% if species are unable to disperse), whereas if warming is constrained to 2 °C, the average area of climate refuges doubles to 67% of each conservation area (or, without dispersal, more than doubles to 56% of each area). If the country pledges are fulfilled, an intermediate estimate of 47–52% (or 31–38%, without dispersal) is obtained. We conclude that the Nationally Determined Contributions alone have important but limited benefits for biodiversity conservation, with larger benefits accruing if warming is constrained to 2 °C. Greater benefits would result if warming was constrained to well below 2 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement.     

Regional stratigraphy and subsidence of Orphan Basin near the time of breakup and implications for rifting processes

The stratigraphic, subsidence and structural history of Orphan Basin, offshore the island of Newfoundland, Canada, is described from well data and tied to a regional seismic grid. This large (400 by 400 km) rifted basin is part of the non‐volcanic rifted margin in the northwest Atlantic Ocean, which had a long and complex rift history spanning Middle Jurassic to Aptian time. The basin is underlain by variably thinned continental crust, locally <10‐km thick. Our work highlights the complex structure, with major upper crustal faults terminating in the mid‐crust, while lower crustal reflectivity suggests ductile flow, perhaps accommodating depth‐dependent extension. We describe three major stratigraphic horizons connected to breakup and the early post‐rift. An Aptian–Albian unconformity appears to mark the end of crustal rifting in the basin, and a second, more subdued Santonian unconformity was also noted atop basement highs and along the proximal margins of the basin. Only minor thermal subsidence occurred between development of these two horizons. The main phase of post‐rift subsidence was delayed until post‐Santonian time, with rapid subsidence culminating in the development of a major flooding surface in base Tertiary time. Conventional models of rifting events predict significant basin thermal subsidence immediately following continental lithospheric breakup. In the Orphan Basin, however, this subsidence was delayed for about 25–30 Myr and requires more thinning of the mantle lithosphere than the crust. Models of the subsidence history suggest that extreme thinning of the lithospheric mantle continued well into the post‐rift period. This is consistent with edge‐driven, small‐scale convective flow in the mantle, which may thin the lithosphere from below. A hot spot may also have been present below the region in Aptian–Albian time.     

Mantle and crustal sources of Archean anorthosite: a combined in situ isotopic study of Pb–Pb in plagioclase and Lu–Hf in zircon

Isotopic analyses of ancient mantle-derived magmatic rocks are used to trace the geochemical evolution of the Earth’s mantle, but it is often difficult to determine their primary, initial isotope ratios due to the detrimental effects of metamorphism and secondary alteration. We present in situ analyses by LA-MC-ICPMS for the Pb isotopic compositions of igneous plagioclase (An_75–89) megacrysts and the Hf isotopic compositions of BSE-imaged domains of zircon grains from two mantle-derived anorthosite complexes from south West Greenland, Fiskenæsset and Nunataarsuk, which represent two of the best-preserved Archean anorthosites in the world. In situ LA-ICPMS U–Pb geochronology of the zircon grains suggests that the minimum crystallization age of the Fiskenæsset complex is 2,936 ± 13 Ma (2σ, MSWD = 1.5) and the Nunataarsuk complex is 2,914 ± 6.9 Ma (2σ, MSWD = 2.0). Initial Hf isotopic compositions of zircon grains from both anorthosite complexes fall between depleted mantle and a less radiogenic crustal source with a total range up to 5 ε_Hf units. In terms of Pb isotopic compositions of plagioclase, both anorthosite complexes share a depleted mantle end member yet their Pb isotopic compositions diverge in opposite directions from this point: Fiskenæsset toward a high-μ, more radiogenic Pb, crustal composition and Nunataarsuk toward low-μ, less radiogenic Pb, crustal composition. By using Hf isotopes in zircon in conjunction with Pb isotopes in plagioclase, we are able to constrain both the timing of mantle extraction of the crustal end member and its composition. At Fiskenæsset, the depleted mantle melt interacted with an Eoarchean (~3,700 Ma) mafic crust with a maximum ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ~0.028. At Nunataarsuk, the depleted mantle melt interacted with a Hadean (~4,200 Ma) mafic crust with a maximum ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf ~0.0315. Evidence from both anorthosite complexes provides support for the long-term survival of ancient mafic crusts that, although unidentified at the surface to date, could still be present within the Fiskenæsset and Nunataarsuk regions.     

The Use of Remotely Sensed Imagery as A Pedagogic Tool for Natural Hazards Education

Abstract

Remotely sensed imagery from space-borne platforms is a valuable tool for illustrating the spatial scale and temporal changes associated with a variety of natural hazards. Imagery in numerous formats is freely available from US government websites. This article illustrates the use of such imagery as a pedagogic tool in a university-level Natural Hazards class. Illustrated examples include such hazards as volcanic eruptions, forest fires, dust storms, and hurricanes.     

Responding to Negative Public Attitudes towards Immigration through Analysis and Policy: regional and unemployment dimensions

ABSTRACT

This paper examines two key dimensions of the impact of immigration for Australia and related policy aspects. One is sub-national and the other is national. They are, first, the regional location aspects of immigration and, second, the aggregate unemployment implications of immigration. These are chosen so as to focus on two important issues that condition public attitudes towards immigration. In relation to the first, there is a common positive view that channelling migration towards regional areas assists regional development and reduces pressure on metropolitan areas. The paper reviews regional concepts embodied in Australian immigration policy and the ways in which visa arrangements have implemented policies geared towards the regional dispersal of immigrants. Using official data, it discusses the demographic impacts of these policies and, in particular, considers the extent to which immigrants to regional Australia remain there over the longer term. In relation to unemployment, a common concern is that immigrants take jobs from local workers. The paper examines—using statistical regression methodology—the relationship between immigration and national aggregate unemployment in Australia. It evaluates the net consequences of immigration for both existing residents and new arrivals together. The paper concludes that, with good policy design in each case, regional location encouragement can be effective for immigrants and that immigrants need not take more jobs than they create. The analysis demonstrates that mixed-methods approaches to important social science issues can be productive, and helpful also for policy. Evidence, such as that presented in this paper, offers a powerful basis from which to counter negative public and political discourses surrounding immigration in contemporary Australia.     

Writing difference differently

This paper investigates the writing of situated knowledge and explores the possibilities of enacting difference by writing differently. We present a selection of research stories in which carrier bags, sounds, baskets, gardens and potatoes are interpreted less as objects of research or metaphors to aid in analysing phenomena, than as mediators of the stories. Our stories emphasise the ontological politics of engaging with and representing the relational, the messy, the spontaneous, the unpredictable, the non‐human and bodily experiences. These stories demonstrate how writing is performative and how it is integral to the production of knowledge.