Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM output. The paper takes the first step towards a methodology by which RCM performance and other downscaling methods can be assessed in relation to the simulation of short-duration rainfall extremes.     

Bottom-current control on sedimentation in the western Bellingshausen Sea, West Antarctica

A set of single- and multi-channel seismic reflection profiles provide insights into the younger Cenozoic sedimentation history of the continental rise in the western Bellingshausen Sea, west and north of Peter I Island. This area has been strongly influenced by glacially controlled sediment supply from the continental shelf, interacting with a westward-flowing bottom current. From south to north, the seismic data show changes in the symmetry and structure of a prominent sediment depocentre. Its southernmost sector provides evidence of sediment drift whereas northwards the data show a large channel-levee complex, with a western levee oriented in the opposite direction to that of the drift in the south. This pattern indicates the northward-decreasing influence of a westward-flowing bottom contour current in the study area. Topographic data suggest the morphologic ridges at Peter I Island to be the main features responsible for variable bottom-current influence, these acting as barrier to the bottom current and entrained sedimentary material. West of Peter I Island, the east-orientated Coriolis force remains effective in deflecting the suspended load of the turbidity currents towards the west, thereby promoting growth of the western channel levee. Calculated sediment accumulation rates based on seismic data reveal Depocentre C to consist of younger Cenozoic material supplied by glacial transport and modified by contour currents in the western Bellingshausen Sea. These findings demonstrate that the shape, structure and distribution of sediment mounds and estimates of sediment accumulation rates can be associated to the influence of bottom currents and their long-term evolution in response to tectonic movements, ice-sheet dynamics and deep-water formation.     

Long-term displacement of intertidal seagrass and mussel beds by expanding large sandy bedforms in the northern Wadden Sea

On aerial photographs, sandy tidal flats display (1) large sandy bedforms (> 10 m long, > 3 m wide), indicating effects of strong hydrodynamics on sediment relief, and (2) beds of seagrass and mussels, indicating stable sediment conditions. These physical and biogenic structures have been mapped from aerial photographs taken in a back-barrier tidal basin of the North Sea coast at low tide between 1936 and 2005. Fields of large intertidal sandy bedforms show a consistent spatial distribution in the central part of the basin, and have increased in area from 7.2 to 12.8 km², corresponding now to 10% of the tidal flats. Areal expansion may be linked to a rise in average high tide level and an increase of the expansion rate from the 1960s to the mid 1990s might be traced back to an increased frequency of storm tides during this period. It is shown that expanding fields of large sandy bedforms have replaced mussel beds in the low tidal zone and displaced seagrass beds in the mid tidal zone. Fields of intertidal large sandy bedforms are expected to expand further with an accelerating rise in sea level, and it is recommended to monitor these physical indicators of sediment instability and disturbance of biogenic benthic structures by analysing aerial photographs.     

DMS oxidation and turbulent transport in the marine boundary layer: A numerical study

DMS oxidation in the marine boundary layer has been simulated with a mesoscale meteorological model including detailed physical parameterizations. The impact of vertical turbulent transport on the DMS and SO₂ diurnal cycles with and without in-cloud SO₂ oxidation has been studied in a one-dimensional version of the model and compared to results obtained with a zero-dimensional box model. Initialisation has been done using balanced values issued from the imposed sea-air fluxes, dry deposition fluxes and chemical source/sink terms. Particular emphasis has been put on the important role played by evolving vertical mixing in the marine boundary layer.     

Ion microprobe studies of water in silicate melts. Concentration-dependent water diffusion in obsidian

The ion microprobe at Johnson Space Center has been calibrated for in situ water determinations on a 10-μm scale over the range 0.2 wt.% H₂O to 1.8, 6.8, and 3.7 wt.%, for basaltic, albitic, and rhyolitic glasses, respectively. The basalt glass calibration curve differs substantially from those of albite and rhyolite glasses, indicating a need to carefully match composition and/or melt structure between H₂O standards and unknowns.A value for the diffusivity of water as a function of concentration and time has been calculated from water diffusion profiles measured in rhyolite glasses prepared at 850°C and 700 barsP_t(H₂O) [1]. Transient diffusion into a semi-infinite medium is described by the equation:?(φ/2)?¸/?φ=?(D_w?¸/?φ)/?φ #x003B8;=1, φ=0, θ→ 0, θ→∞, wherex =distance from the cylinder edge,t =time,C₀ =initial concentration,C_s =concentration at the edge,C =concentration at x,θ = C ? C₀/C_s ? C₀,φ = x/t^1/2, andD_w =diffusivity of water. An iterative technique has been used to calculate solutions to the diffusion equation as a function ofD_w [2]. Comparison of these solutions with the ion probe data indicate that, for0.2wt.% ≤ C ≤ 3.7wt.%H₂O,D_w can be described by an exponential function of θ, of the formD_w = D₀exp(bθ), withD₀ (i.e.,D_w at 0.2%) = (0.8?2.2) × 10^?8 cm²/s and2 ≤ b ≤ 4.     

Ion microprobe studies of water in silicate melts: Temperature-dependent water diffusion in obsidian

The temperature dependence of water diffusivity in rhyolite melts over the range 650–950°C and [P_T(H₂O] = 700 bars is evaluated from water concentration-distance profiles measured in glass with an ion microprobe. Diffusivities are exponentially dependent on concentration over this temperature range and vary from about 10^?8 cm²/s at 650°C to about 10^?7 cm²/s at 950°C at 2 wt.% water. Water solubility also varies with temperature at a rate of ?0.14 wt. per 100°C increase. The avtivation energy (E_a) appears to be constant at 19 ± 1kal/mole for 1, 2,and 3 wt.% H₂O. Comparison of these data with results for cation diffusion indicates that this value is a minimum E_a for diffusion of any species in a rhyolite melt.Compensation plots of log₁₀D₀ (the frequency factor) versus E_a indicate that hydrous rhyolite melts follow the same trend as anhydrous basalts. D₀ increases for H₂O and Ca²⁺ [1] as E_a decreases. This suggests that these molecules may diffuse by different mechanisms than do monovalent cations, and that hydration of the melt affects diffusion of Ca²⁺ and H₂O differently than it does monovalent cation diffusion. The results imply that dramatic increases in cation diffusivities by hydration [1] may occur with additions of less than 1 wt.% H₂O.     

The importance of alternative conceptual models for simulation of concentrations in a multi-aquifer system

Four different conceptual models based on alternative geological interpretations were formulated for a shallow 600 km² aquifer system in Denmark comprising Quaternary deposits. Each of the four models was calibrated against groundwater heads and discharge measurements through inverse modeling. Subsequently, the transport capabilities of the four models were compared to 32 concentration measurements of environmental tracers (tritium ³H, helium-3 ³He, chlorofluorocarbons CFC11, CFC12 and CFC113). The flow simulations showed only minor differences in spatial head distribution associated with alternative conceptualizations despite the complexity of the aquifer system and the significant differences in geological interpretations. The models, however, showed major differences in predictions of the age of the groundwater and environmental tracer concentrations, differences that are seen as an effect of model structure uncertainty, because no additional calibrations to these data were performed. A single conceptualization may be adequate in characterizing the natural behavior of a field system after calibration, because the calibration procedure is able to compensate for errors in the data or in the conceptual model through biased parameter values. However, once extrapolation beyond the calibration base is attempted, different conceptual model formulations result in significantly different results. Consequently, it is crucial to take model conceptual uncertainty into account when making predictions beyond the calibration base.     

Simulating Martian regolith in the laboratory

Regolith and dust cover the surfaces of the Solar Systems solid bodies, and thus constitute the visible surface of these objects. The topmost layers also interact with space or the atmosphere in the case of Mars, Venus and Titan. Surface probes have been proposed, studied and flown to some of these worlds. Landers and some of the mechanisms they carry, e.g. sampling devices, drills and subsurface probes (“moles”) will interact with the porous surface layer. The absence of true extraterrestrial test materials in ample quantities restricts experiments to the use of soil or regolith analogue materials. Several standardized soil simulants have been developed and produced and are commonly used for a variety of laboratory experiments. In this paper we intend to give an overview of some of the most important soil simulants, and describe experiments (penetrometry, thermal conductivity, aeolian transport, goniometry, spectroscopy and exobiology) made in various European laboratory facilities.     

Crystal field transitions in Co2[Al4Si5]O18 cordierite and CoAl2O4 spinel determined by neutron spectroscopy

Inelastic magnetic neutron scattering has been used to determine the energy of the ⁴ A ₂→⁴ T ₂ transition in CoAl₂O₄ spinel and the δ₁ transition in Co₂[Al₄Si₅]O₁₈ cordierite. The observed crystal field splitting in Co-spinel is 485 meV (3900 cm⁻¹), which corresponds to a crystal field stabilization energy of 56.2 kJmol⁻¹. The transition energy of the δ₁ transition in Co-cordierite has been determined to be 21 meV (170 cm⁻¹). The present data demonstrate that magnetic neutron scattering can be used to measure crystal field transitions at energies of interest in the study of 3d-containing silicates. It may be used to measure transition energies when the use of optical spectroscopy is inappropriate. Received: 30 January 1997 / Accepted: 5 July 1997