Space Weather: Physics,Effects and Predictability

The time varying conditions in the near-Earth space environment that may affect space-borne or ground-based technological systems and may endanger human health or life are referred to as space weather. Space weather effects arise from the dynamic and highly variable conditions in the geospace environment starting from explosive events on the Sun (solar flares), Coronal Mass Ejections near the Sun in the interplanetary medium, and various energetic effects in the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system. As the utilization of space has become part of our everyday lives, and as our lives have become increasingly dependent on technological systems vulnerable to the space weather influences, the understanding and prediction of hazards posed by these active solar events have grown in importance. In this paper, we review the processes of the Sun–Earth interactions, the dynamic conditions within the magnetosphere, and the predictability of space weather effects on radio waves, satellites and ground-based technological systems today.     

Correction of the ionospheric distortion on the MARSIS surface sounding echoes

Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) on the Mars Express (MEX) spacecraft has made numerous measurements of the Martian surface and subsurface. However, all of these measurements are distorted by the ionosphere and must be compensated before any analysis. We have developed a technique to compensate for the ionospheric distortions. This technique provides a powerful tool to derive the total electron content (TEC) and other higher-order terms of the limited expansion of the plasma dispersion function that are related to overall shape of the electron column profile. The derived parameters are fitted by using a Chapman model to derive ionospheric parameters like n₀, electron density primary peak (maximum for solar zenith angle (SZA) equal 0), and the neutral height scale H.

Our estimated ionospheric parameters are in good agreement with Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) radio-occultation data. However, since MARSIS does not have the observation geometry limitations of the radio occultation measurements, our derived parameters extend over a large range of SZA for each MEX orbit.

The first results from our technique have been discussed by Safaeinili et al. [2007, Estimation of the total electron content of the Martian ionosphere using radar sounder surface echoes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L23204, doi:10.1029/2007GL032154].     

Paleoclimatic implications of glacial and postglacial refugia for Pinus pumila in western Beringia

Palynological results from Julietta Lake currently provide the most direct evidence to support the existence of a glacial refugium for Pinus pumila in mountains of southwestern Beringia. Both percentages and accumulation rates indicate the evergreen shrub survived until at least ∼ 19,000 ¹⁴C yr BP in the Upper Kolyma region. Percentage data suggest numbers dwindled into the late glaciation, whereas pollen accumulation rates point towards a more rapid demise shortly after ∼ 19,000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Pinus pumila did not re-establish in any great numbers until ∼ 8100 ¹⁴C yr BP, despite the local presence ∼ 9800 ¹⁴C yr BP of Larixdahurica, which shares similar summer temperature requirements. The postglacial thermal maximum (in Beringia ∼ 11,000-9000 ¹⁴C yr BP) provided Pinus pumila shrubs with equally harsh albeit different conditions for survival than those present during the LGM. Regional records indicate that in this time of maximum warmth Pinus pumila likely sheltered in a second, lower-elevation refugium. Paleoclimatic models and modern ecology suggest that shifts in the nature of seasonal transitions and not only seasonal extremes have played important roles in the history of Pinus pumila over the last ∼ 21,000 ¹⁴C yr BP.     

Past,present and future vegetation-cloud feedbacks in the Amazon Basin

To begin exploring the underlying mechanisms that couple vegetation to cloud formation processes, we derive the lifting condensation level (LCL) to estimate cumulus cloud base height. Using a fully coupled land–ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (HadCM3LC), we investigate Amazonian forest feedbacks on cloud formation over three geological periods; modern-day (a.d. 1970–1990), the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kya), and under a future climate scenario (IS92a; a.d. 2070–2090). Results indicate that for both past and future climate scenarios, LCL is higher relative to modern-day. Statistical analyses indicate that the 800 m increase in LCL during the LGM is related primarily to the drier atmosphere promoted by lower tropical sea surface temperatures. In contrast, the predicted 1,000 m increase in LCL in the future scenario is the result of a large increase in surface temperature and reduced vegetation cover.     

Physico-chemical phenomena in comets—III: The continuum of comet Burnham (1960 II)

The new model of the cometary head proposed in papers I and II is developed and applied to comet Burnham. It takes into account the likely existence of a halo of large icy particles surrounding the nucleus. These particles are steadily stripped from the nucleus by evaporating gases. Their terminal velocity and their rate of evaporation set the size of the halo. The existence of the icy halo influences in two ways the photometric characteristics of the coma. This paper establishes the photometric shape of the continuum as reflected by the icy grains, and compares it to the observed continuum of comet Burnham. Paper IV will compare the predictions of the model with the photometric profile of the molecular emission bands of C₂, in the same comet.     

On the collapse of a vertical packet of mixed patches. Laboratory and field studies

Visualization of a collapsing vertical packet of patches in a laboratory experiment and the results of acoustical sounding under field conditions allowed us to discriminate the stage of its evolution which was previously unknown. It is defined by the variations of the horizontal dimensions of patches and their effective scattering surface with a period ofT=150–250/N, whereN is the Brunt-Väisälä frequency. The horizontal dimensions of patches can reach 40% of their final dimensions at the evolution stage discriminated.Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

Diffusive equilibrium in thin films provides evidence of suppression of hyporheic exchange and large‐scale nitrate transformation in a groundwater‐fed river

The hyporheic zone of riverbed sediments has the potential to attenuate nitrate from upwelling, polluted groundwater. However, the coarse‐scale (5–10 cm) measurement of nitrogen biogeochemistry in the hyporheic zone can often mask fine‐scale (<1 cm) biogeochemical patterns, especially in near‐surface sediments, leading to incomplete or inaccurate representation of the capacity of the hyporheic zone to transform upwelling NO₃^?. In this study, we utilised diffusive equilibrium in thin‐films samplers to capture high resolution (cm‐scale) vertical concentration profiles of NO₃^?, SO₄^2?, Fe and Mn in the upper 15 cm of armoured and permeable riverbed sediments. The goal was to test whether nitrate attenuation was occurring in a sub‐reach characterised by strong vertical (upwelling) water fluxes. The vertical concentration profiles obtained from diffusive equilibrium in thin‐films samplers indicate considerable cm‐scale variability in NO₃^? (4.4 ± 2.9 mg N/L), SO₄^2? (9.9 ± 3.1 mg/l) and dissolved Fe (1.6 ± 2.1 mg/l) and Mn (0.2 ± 0.2 mg/l). However, the overall trend suggests the absence of substantial net chemical transformations and surface‐subsurface water mixing in the shallow sediments of our sub‐reach under baseflow conditions. The significance of this is that upwelling NO₃^?‐rich groundwater does not appear to be attenuated in the riverbed sediments at <15 cm depth as might occur where hyporheic exchange flows deliver organic matter to the sediments for metabolic processes. It would appear that the chemical patterns observed in the shallow sediments of our sub‐reach are not controlled exclusively by redox processes and/or hyporheic exchange flows. Deeper‐seated groundwater fluxes and hydro‐stratigraphy may be additional important drivers of chemical patterns in the shallow sediments of our study sub‐reach. © 2015 The Authors. Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.