The effect of horizontal resolution on ocean surface heat fluxes in the ECMWF model

Annual mean ocean surface heat fluxes have been studied as a function of horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model (cycle 33) and compared with Oberhuber's COADS (1959–1979) based empirical estimates. The model has been run at resolutions of T21, T42, T63 and T106 for 15 months with prescribed monthly varying climatological SST and sea ice. The T42 simulation was extended to 2 years, which enabled us to determine that many differences between the resolution runs were significant and could not be explained by the fact that individual realizations of an ensemble of years can be expected to give different estimates of the annual mean climate state. In addition to systematic differences between the modeled and the observed fluxes, the simulated fields of surface shortwave and longwave radiation showed much more spatial variability than the observed estimates. In the case of the longwave radiation this may be attributable more to deficiencies in the observations than to errors in the model. The modeled latent and sensible heat fields were in better agreement with observations. The primary conclusion concerning the dependence of ocean surface fluxes on resolution is that the T21 simulation differed significantly from the higher resolution runs, especially in the tropics. Although the differences among the three higher resolution simulations were generally small over most of the world ocean, there were local areas with large differences. It appears, therefore, that in relation to ocean surface heat fluxes, a resolution greater than T42 may not be justified for climate model simulations, although the locally large differences found between the higher resolution runs suggest that convergence has not been achieved everywhere even at T106.     

Time scale of hydrothermal water-rock reactions in Yellowstone National Park based on radium isotopes and radon

We have measured ²²⁴Ra (3.4 d), ²²⁸Ra (5.7 yr), and ²²⁶Ra (1620 yr) and chloride in hot spring waters from the Norris-Mammoth Corridor, Yellowstone National Park. Two characteristic cold-water components mix with the primary hydrothermal water: one for the travertine-depositing waters related to the Mammoth Hot Springs and the other for the sinter-depositing Norris Geyser Basin springs. The Mammoth Hot Springs water is a mixture of the primary hydrothermal fluid with meteoric waters flowing through the Madison Limestone, as shown by the systematic decrease of the (²²⁸Ra/²²⁶Ra) activity ratio proceeding northward. The Norris Geyser Basin springs are mixtures of primary hydrothermal water with different amounts of cold meteoric water with no modification of the primary hydrothermal (²²⁸Ra/²²⁶Ra) activity ratio. Using a solution and recoil model for radium isotope supply to the primary hydrothermal water, a mean water-rock reaction time prior to expansion at 350°C and supply to the surface is 540 years assuming that 250 g of water are involved in the release of the radium from one gram of rock. The maximum reaction time allowed by our model is 1150 years.     

Planktonic dimethylsulfide and cloud albedo: An estimate of the feedback response

Partial control of climate by the biosphere may be possible through a chain of processes that ultimately links marine plankton production of dimethylsulfide (DMS) with changes in cloud albedo (Charlson et al., 1987). Changes in cloud optical properties can have profound impacts on atmospheric radiation transfer and, hence, the surface environment. In this study, we have developed a simple model that incorporates empirically based parameterizations to account for the biological control of cloud droplet concentration in a first attempt to estimate the strength of the DMS-cloud albedo feedback mechanism. We find that the feedback reduces the global climatic response to imposed perturbations in solar insolation by less than 7%. Likewise, it modifies the strength of other feedbacks affecting surface insolation over oceans by roughly the same amount. This suggests that the DMS-cloud albedo mechanism will be unable to substantially reduce climate sensitivity, although these results should be confirmed with less idealized models when more is known about the net production of DMS by the marine biosphere and its relation to aerosol/cloud microphysics and climate.     

Development and changes in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia

Due to a particularly favourable geologic and tectonic setting in the Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia has the world largest oil reserves and is the third largest oil-producing nation in the world. Based on oil and gas revenues, the Kingdom experienced an overwhelming development during the last few decades, changing a desert country into a modern industrialized nation. Main characteristics of spatial changes are based on processes of urbanization and industrialization, on agricultural reclamations and infra-structural developments. Since the natural environment of deserts and semi-deserts in the Eastern Province is determined by an extremely sensitive equilibrium, environmental impacts, shortages in water resources, as well as limited human resources are causing basic problems, which will influence future developments.     

Multivariate statistische Auswertung von Schwermineraldaten der alpinen Gosau und Bezüge zur plattentektonischen Entwicklung der Ostalpen während der Oberkreide

Zusammenfassung Aus Schwermineraldaten verschiedener Oberkreidevorkommen der alpinen Gosau werden mit einer speziellen Variante der Q-Modus Faktorenanalyse lithologische Endglieder zur Rekonstruktion der Liefergebiete modelliert. Dabei zeigt sich, daß zeitlich zwischen der bekannten Chromspinell-Schüttung aus Ophiolithen im Norden und der Zufuhr von Granat aus dem Kristallin der Ostalpen im Süden während des Campan ein kratonisches Hinterland vorhanden ist, das sowohl reifen (Zirkon, Turmalin, Rutil) als auch sauer plutonischen Detritus (Zirkon, Apatit) in die Gosaubecken einbringt.Diese Befunde bestätigen und präzisieren das vonFrisch (1979) vorgelegte plattentektonische Konzept: Als Folge der Subduktion des südpenninischen Piedmont Ozeans und gleichzeitiger Öffnung des nordpenninischen Valais Ozeans kollidiert im Campan die mittelpenninische Briançonnais-Mikroplatte mit dem Austroalpin der adriatischen Platte. Dem entspricht die Abnahme der Chromspinellzufuhr und die Zunahme von Detritus aus einem kratonischen Liefergebiet in den Gosau Sedimenten des Untercampan. Nach der intragosauischen Gebirgsbildungsphase hält die Zufuhr von kratonischem Material aus dem Mittelpenninikum während dessen Überschiebung im Obercampan an. Gleichzeitig beginnt die Freilegung von austroalpinen Kristallinarealen, die generell ab dem Maastricht zur Vorherrschaft eines metamorphen Schwermineralspektrums führt.

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Heavy mineral data from the Late Cretaceous clastic sediments of the Alpine Gosau formation were processed using extended Q-mode factor analysis in order to model in detail end members of lithological associations in search of provenance. The results show clearly a cratonic source area which furnished both mature (zircon, tourmaline, rutile) and acid plutomc (zircon, apatite) detritus into the Gosau basins during Campanian time. Stratigraphically, the mature-plutonic detritus ranges between the well known chromspinel supply from ophiolites in the north and the influx of garnet from metamorphic rocks of the Eastern Alps in the south.This confirms and clarifies the plate tectonic model proposed byFrisch (1979): The Middle Penninic Briançonian microplate collided with the Austroalpine unit of the Adriatic plate as result of both the subduction of the South Penninic Piedmont ocean and the contemporaneous opening of the North Penninic Valais ocean. The sedimentological response was a decrease in chromspinel and an increase in the minerals of cratonic provenance in the Gosau sediments of Early Campanian age. The cratonic detritus continued to dominate in the Late Campanian after the intragosauic orogenic movements as the Briançonian plate was beeing overthrust. At this time the erosion of Austroalpine metamorphic areas started, leading to the predominance of heavy minerals of metamorphic source from the Latest Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) onwards.

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Résumé Une forme particulière d'analyse factorielle en mode.Q a été appliquée aux minéraux lourdes provenant de divers sites du Crétacé supérieur du Gosau (Alpes orientales), en vue de rechercher l'origine des sédiments. Cette méthode montre clairement l'existence au Campanien d'une source cratonique qui alimenterait le bassin du Gosau à la fois en éléments matures (zircon, tourmaline, rutile) et en éléments plutoniques acides (zircon, apatite). Cet apport se situe stratigraphiquement entre les arrivées de spinelle chromifère provenant des ophiolites au Nord et de grenat provenant des métamorphites des Alpes occidentales au Sud.Ces résultats confiment et précisent le modèle géodynamique proposé par Frisch (1979): à la suite de la subduction de l'océan sud-pennique piémontais et de l'ouverture de l'océan nord-pennique valaisan, une collision se produisit au Campanien entre la microplaque méso-pennique brianonnaise et l-Austro-alpin de la plaque adriatique. La réponse sédimentologique à cet événement a été, dans les sédiments companiens infeérieurs du Gosau, une diminution de l'afflux de spinelles chromifères et un accroissement des minéraux de provenance cratonique. Au Campanien supérieur, après la phase tectonique intro-gosauienne, l'apport des matériaux cratoniques a continué pendant le charriage de la plaque briançonnaise. En même temps commençait l'érosion de l'aire métamorphique austroalpine amenant, à partir du Maastrichtien une prédominance de minéraux lourdes d'órigine métamorphique.

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Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO₂-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO₂-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here. The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless, we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global mean) components of a combined CO₂/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO₂ and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO₂ forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO₂-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change. Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995     

Devonian of the isle of Rügen

Summary In the Rügen area of northern Germany, Old Red Sandstones, ranging from Late Emsian to Givetian in age, unconformably overlie deformed Ordovician strata. The Middle Devonian Old Red passes conformably up into a Late Devonian carbonate facies and then into the Lower Carboniferous, apparently without a break.