Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Site occupation and electric field gradient in acentric neptunite-measurements and evaluations concerning powder- and single crystal – Mössbauer spectroscopy and x-ray diffractometry

Mössbauer measurements on neptunite (KNa₂Li(Fe,Mn,Mg)₂Ti₂Si₈O₂₄) at 400?K reveal the distribution of Fe-ions on the crystallographic sites in agreement with neutron diffraction results published elsewhere. Even the previously postulated small amount of Fe-ions on the Ti(2) site has been detected, combined with a charge transfer which is in agreement with optical absorption investigations by other authors. A qualitative site occupation model is able to explain the different features of our observations. Single crystal Mössbauer measurements with the k-vector of incident γ-rays parallel to the crystallographic b-axis (space group Cc) of neptunite at different temperatures yield the angle β between the main component of the electric field gradient (EFG), V _zz and b. This angle is in close accordance with a calculated value of β for the Fe(1) position from electron density maps. The latter also reveal an absolute value of V _zz which is in satisfactory agreement with V _zz derived from Mössbauer spectroscopy.     

Shape of the Cassini division in different colors

The true shape of the Cassini division of Saturn's rings in red, yellow, green, and blue light has been derived from photographs of high quality, taking into account the correction due to the spreading of light. It is evident that the division is not completely dark. Its minimum brightness is about 20% of that of ring B and the width of the division 0″.44±0″.05.     

Characterization of a major refractory component of marine dissolved organic matter

Refractory carboxyl-rich alicyclic molecules (CRAM) are characterized in marine dissolved organic matter (DOM) using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry. CRAM are distributed throughout the water column and are the most abundant components of deep ocean DOM ever characterized. CRAM are comprised of a complex mixture of carboxylated and fused alicyclic structures with a carboxyl-C:aliphatic-C ratio of 1:2 to 1:7. CRAM are expected to constitute a strong ligand for metal binding, and multiple coordination across cations could promote aggregation and marine gel formation thereby affecting CRAM reactivity and the bioavailability of nutrients and trace metals. It appears CRAM are ultimately derived from biomolecules with structural similarities to sterols and hopanoids. The occurrence of CRAM in freshwater and terrestrial environments seems likely, considering the global distribution of biomolecules and the similarities of biogeochemical processes among environments.     

TRANSALP—deep crustal Vibroseis and explosive seismic profiling in the Eastern Alps

The TRANSALP consortium, comprising institutions from Italy, Austria and Germany, carried out deep seismic reflection measurements in the Eastern Alps between Munich and Venice in 1998, 1999 and 2001. In order to complement each other in resolution and depth range, the Vibroseis technique was combined with simultaneous explosive source measurements. Additionally, passive cross-line recording provided three-dimensional control and alternative north–south sections. Profits were obtained by the combination of the three methods in sectors or depths where one method alone was less successful.The TRANSALP sections clearly image a thin-skinned wedge of tectonic nappes at the northern Alpine front zone, unexpected graben or half-graben structures within the European basement, and, thick-skinned back-thrusting in the southern frontal zone beneath the Dolomite Mountains. A bi-vergent structure at crustal scale is directed from the Alpine axis to the external parts. The Tauern Window obviously forms the hanging wall ramp anticline above a southward dipping, deep reaching reflection pattern interpreted as a tectonic ramp along which the Penninic units of the Tauern Window have been up-thrusted.The upper crystalline crust appears generally transparent. The lower crust in the European domain is characterized by a 6–7 km thick laminated structure. On the Adriatic side the lower crust displays a much thicker or twofold reflective pattern. The crustal root at about 55 km depth is shifted around 50 km to the south with respect to the main Alpine crest.     

U–Pb and Hf isotopic analysis of zircon in lower crustal xenoliths from the Navajo volcanic field: 1.4 Ga mafic magmatism and metamorphism beneath the Colorado Plateau

Zircon from lower crustal xenoliths erupted in the Navajo volcanic field was analyzed for U–Pb and Lu–Hf isotopic compositions to characterize the lower crust beneath the Colorado Plateau and to determine whether it was affected by ∼1.4 Ga granitic magmatism and metamorphism that profoundly affected the exposed middle crust of southwestern Laurentia. Igneous zircon in felsic xenoliths crystallized at 1.73 and 1.65 Ga, and igneous zircon in mafic xenoliths crystallized at 1.43 Ga. Most igneous zircon has unradiogenic initial Hf isotopic compositions (ɛ_Hf=+4.1–+7.8) and 1.7–1.6 Ga depleted mantle model ages, consistent with 1.7–1.6 Ga felsic protoliths being derived from “juvenile” Proterozoic crust and 1.4 Ga mafic protoliths having interacted with older crust. Metamorphic zircon grew in four pulses between 1.42 and 1.36 Ga, at least one of which was at granulite facies. Significant variability within and between xenoliths in metamorphic zircon initial Hf isotopic compositions (ɛ_Hf=−0.7 to +13.6) indicates growth from different aged sources with diverse time-integrated Lu/Hf ratios. These results show a strong link between 1.4 Ga mafic magmatism and granulite facies metamorphism in the lower crust and granitic magmatism and metamorphism in the exposed middle crust.     

Potential of High-Resolution Satellite Data in the Context of Vulnerability of Buildings

High-resolution space-borne remote sensing data are investigated for their potential to extract relevant parameters for a vulnerability analysis of buildings in European countries. For an evaluation of large earthquake scenarios, the number of parameters in models for vulnerability is reduced to a minimum of relevant information such as the type of building (age, material, number of storeys) and the geological and spatial context. Building-related parameters can be derived from remote sensing data either directly (e.g. height) or indirectly based on the recognition of the urban structure type in which the buildings are located. With the potential of a fully- or semi-automatic inventory of the buildings and their parameters, high-resolution satellite data and techniques for their processing are a useful supporting tool for the assessment of vulnerability.     

Seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment in the Laccadive (Lakshadweep) Sea as observed by the Coastal Zone Color scanner

Based on Coastal Zone Color Scanner data from November 1978 through December 1981, the seasonal cycle of phytoplankton pigment in the upper part of the euphotic zone is established for the offshore Laccadive Sea. Year-round, the pigment content is low and the seasonal range is small, following the pattern of the nutrient-poor Arabian Sea to the west. Apparently, indigenous phytoplankton blooms are absent. July and August, however, were poorly studied because of cloud cover. Interannual differences during the northeast monsoon and the spring intermonsoon periods are minor. The abundant phytoplankton caused by the upwelling off India during the southwest monsoon remains essentially restricted to the shelf, but there are occasional large, zonal outbreaks into the Laccadive Sea, as well as others advected to the south of India. Visual inspection of the raw CZCS scenes for June through November 1982–1985, with almost no data until August or even September, shows such outbreaks of pigment-rich water to be common. Inspection of monthly SeaWiFS images for 1997 through part of 2001 confirms the absence of indigenous phytoplankton blooms.