Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic assessment of soil liquefaction considering spatial variability of CPT measurements

The conventional liquefaction potential assessment methods (also known as simplified methods) profoundly rely on empirical correlations based on observations from case histories. A probabilistic framework is developed to incorporate uncertainties in the earthquake ground motion prediction, the cyclic resistance prediction, and the cyclic demand prediction. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, site response analyses, and liquefaction potential analyses are convolved to derive a relationship for the annual probability and return period of liquefaction. The random field spatial model is employed to quantify the spatial uncertainty associated with the in-situ measurements of geotechnical material.     

Distribution,sediment magnetism and geochemistry of the Saksunarvatn (10 180 ± 60 cal. yr BP) tephra in marine,lake, and terrestrial sediments,northwest Iceland

In 1997, seismic surveys in the troughs off northwest and north Iceland indicated the presence of a major, regional sub‐bottom reflector that can be traced over large areas of the shelf. Cores taken in 1997, and later in 1999 on the IMAGES V cruise, penetrated through the reflector. In core MD99‐2269 in Húnaflóaáll, this reflector is shown to be represented by a basaltic tephra with a geochemical signature and radiocarbon age correlative with the North Atlantic‐wide Saksunarvatn tephra. We trace this tephra throughout northwest Iceland in a series of marine and lake cores, as well as in terrestrial sediments; it forms a layer 1 to 25 cm thick of fine‐ to medium‐grained basaltic volcanic shards. The base of the tephra unit is always sharp but visual inspection and other measurements (carbonate and total organic carbon weight %) indicate a more diffuse upper boundary associated with bioturbation and with sediment reworking. Off northwest Iceland the Saksunarvatn tephra has distinct sediment magnetic properties. This is evident as a dramatic reduction in magnetic susceptibility, an increase in the frequency dependant magnetic susceptibility and ‘hard’ magnetisation in a −0.1T IRM backfield. Geochemical analyses from 11 sites indicate a tholeiitic basalt composition, similar to the geochemistry of a tephra found in the Greenland ice‐core that dates to 10 180 ± 60 cal. yr BP, and which was correlated with the 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP Saksunarvatn tephra. We present accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dates from the marine sites, which indicate that the ocean reservoir correction is close to ca. 400 yr at 9000 ¹⁴C yr BP off northwest Iceland. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Über die Beziehung zwischen äquatorialen Konvektionsregen und der Meereshöhe auf Ceylon

Zusammenfassung Die Beziehung zwischen äquatorialen Konvektionsregen und der Meereshöhe wird am Beispiel der Südabdachung der Haputale Range auf Ceylon (etwa 7° nördl. Br. und rund 1400 m Höhenunterschied) untersucht. Auf der Grundlage unveröffentlichter Niederschlagsmessungen von 21 Stationen, vorwiegend Teeplantagen, für die Periode von 1951–1965 wird die Änderung der Niederschlagsmenge mit der Höhe an Hand der mittleren jährlichen und mittleren monatlichen Niederschlagsmengen diskutiert. Hierbei ergibt sich im Jahresmittel und in den Monaten mit vorwiegend konvektiver Niederschlagsbildung — das sind die Intermonsunmonate März, April und Mai sowie Oktober und November —, daß nach anfänglicher Zunahme des Niederschlags mit wachsender Höhe oberhalb einer kritischen Höhenlage zwischen 900–1400 m NN eine stetige Abnahme des Niederschlags eintritt.

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Summary The relationship between equatorial convective rain and altitude above sea-level is investigated taking the southern slope of the Haputale Range in Ceylon (7° N, about 1400 m range of altitude) as an example. On the basis of unpublished precipitation observations of 21 stations, most of them on tea-estates, from the period 1951 to 1965 the variation of the amount of precipitation with altitude is discussed using mean annual and mean monthly precipitation totals. It appears that in the annual mean and during the months with prevailing convective rain — these are the intermonsoonal months March, April, May and October, November — the precipitation totals increase with altitude up to a critical level between 900 and 1400 m a.s.l. and then decrease again monotonically.

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Résumé On examine ici la relation existant entre les précipitations équatoriales de convection d'une part et l'altitude d'autre part. Pour ce faire, on se sert de l'exemple offert par le versant sud de l'Haputale Range de Ceylan (situé à environ 7° de latitude N et présentant une différence d'altitude de 1400 m environ). Sur la base de mesures non publiées des précipitations — mesures effectuées de 1951 à 1965 à 21 stations, en majeure partie des plantations de thé — on discute les modifications que subissent les sommes de précipitations avec l'altitude. Dans ce but, on utilise les moyennes annuelles et mensuelles de cet élément. Il en résulte que les précipitations augmentent tout d'abord avec l'altitude et cela jusqu'à une zone critique située entre 900 et 1400 m. Au-dessus, les précipitations diminuent de nouveau régulièrement. Cette constatation est valable aussi bien pour la moyenne annuelle que pour les mois caractérisés avant tout par des précipitations d'origine convective c'est à dire ceux qui se situent entre les périodes de mousson (mars, avril, mai, octobre et novembre).

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Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

Source parameters of seismic events potentially associated with damage in block 33/34 of the Kiirunavaara mine (Sweden)

Forty-six mining-induced seismic events with moment magnitude between ?1.2 and 2.1 that possibly caused damage were studied. The events occurred between 2008 and 2013 at mining level 850–1350 m in the Kiirunavaara Mine (Sweden). Hypocenter locations were refined using from 6 to 130 sensors at distances of up to 1400 m. The source parameters of the events were re-estimated using spectral analysis with a standard Brune model (slope ?2). The radiated energy for the studied events varied from 4.7 × 10^?1 to 3.8 × 10⁷ J, the source radii from 4 to 110 m, the apparent stress from 6.2 × 10² to 1.1 × 10⁶ Pa, energy ratio (E _s/E _p) from 1.2 to 126, and apparent volume from 1.8 × 10³ to 1.1 × 10⁷ m³. 90% of the events were located in the footwall, close to the ore contact. The events were classified as shear/fault slip (FS) or non-shear (NS) based on the E _s/E _p ratio (>10 or <10). Out of 46 events 15 events were classified as NS located almost in the whole range between 840 and 1360 m, including many events below the production. The rest 31 FS events were concentrated mostly around the production levels and slightly below them. The relationships between some source parameters and seismic moment/moment magnitude showed dependence on the type of the source mechanism. The energy and the apparent stress were found to be three times larger for FS events than for NS events.     

Seasonal Diatom Variability and Paleolimnological Inferences – A Case Study

The seasonality of physical, chemical, and biological water variables is a major characteristic of temperate, dimictic lakes. Yet, few investigations have considered the potential information that is encoded in seasonal dynamics with respect to the paleolimnological record. We used a one-year sequence of diatoms obtained from sediment traps and water samples, as well as the sedimentary diatom record covering the past ca. 1000 years in Bates Pond, Connecticut (USA), to investigate which variables influence the seasonal distribution of diatoms and how this can be used for the interpretation of the fossil record. The seasonal patterns in diatom assemblages were related to stratification and, to a lesser extent, to nitrate, silica, and phosphorus. During mixing periods in spring and autumn, both planktonic and benthic species were collected in the traps, while few lightly silicified, spindle-shaped planktonic diatoms dominated during thermal stratification in summer. Changes in fossil diatom assemblages reflected human activity in the watershed after European settlement and subsequent recovery in the 20th century. A long-term trend in diatom assemblage change initiated before European settlement was probably related to increased length of mixing periods during the Little Ice Age, indicated by the increase of taxa that presently grow during mixing periods and by application of a preliminary seasonal temperature model. We argue that the analysis of seasonal diatom dynamics in temperate lakes may provide important information for the refinement of paleolimnological interpretations. However, investigations of several lakes and years would be desirable in order to establish a more robust seasonal data set for the enhancement of paleolimnological interpretations.