A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory—part I: the area source model

The seismic zoning map of Turkey that is used in connection with the national seismic design code (versions issued both in 1997 and 2007) is based on a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted more than 20 years ago (Gülkan et al. in En son verilere göre haz?rlanan Türkiye deprem bölgeleri haritas?, Report No: METU/EERC 93-1, 1993). In line with the efforts for the update of the seismic design code, the need aroused for an updated seismic hazard map, incorporating recent data and state-of-the-art methodologies and providing ground motion parameters required for the construction of the design spectra stipulated by the new Turkish Earthquake Design Code. Supported by AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Turkey), a project has been conducted for the country scale assessment of the seismic hazard by probabilistic methods. The present paper describes the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted in connection with this project, incorporating in an area source model, all recently compiled data on seismicity and active faulting, and using a set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations, for both active shallow crustal and subduction regimes, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region. The area sources delineated in the model are fully parameterized in terms of maximum magnitude, depth distribution, predominant strike and dip angles and mechanism of possible ruptures. Resulting ground motion distributions are quantified and presented for PGA and 5 % damped spectral accelerations at T = 0.2 and 1.0 s, associated with return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The full set of seismic hazard curves was also made available for the hazard computation sites. The second part of the study, which is based on a fault source and smoothed seismicity model is covered in Demircioglu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng, (2016).     

Assessing streams in Germany with benthic invertebrates: development of a practical standardised protocol for macroinvertebrate sampling and sorting

In the past, no single standardised method for sampling and sorting benthic macroinvertebrates has been implemented in Germany. Therefore, we tested the suitability of two common sorting protocols, RIVPACS and AQEM/STAR, by taking samples with each protocol at 44 sampling sites. Our results reveal that different methods deliver slightly different assessment results. Moreover these two methods differ in costs. Although the AQEM/STAR protocol takes longer than the RIVPACS protocol, we favoured the AQEM/STAR protocol because of its higher level of standardisation. In order to limit costs to an acceptable level, a modification of the AQEM/STAR protocol (MAS method) is developed. This method is highly standardised, gives stable assessment results and is relatively inexpensive (€ 224.00 for processing of an average sample). A detailed protocol of the newly developed method is given.     

Accumulation of organochlorines and brominated flame retardants in estuarine and marine food chains: field measurements and model calculations

Food chain accumulation of organochlorines and brominated flame retardants in estuarine and marine environments is compared to model estimations and fresh water field data. The food chain consists of herbivores, detritivores and primary and secondary carnivores i.e. fish, fish-eating birds and marine mammals. Accumulation of polychlorinated biphenyls is predicted well by OMEGA for herbi-detritivores and primary and secondary carnivorous fish. Ratios are similar to those found for fresh water species. Accumulation ratios for fish-eating birds and mammals are overestimated by the model, which is attributed partly to biotransformation of meta-para unsubstituted congeners. Additionally, birds may feed in other less polluted areas. For brominated diphenylethers (BDE) accumulation patterns are highly species and congener specific. Accumulation depends on both K(ow) and metabolization capacities. BDE47 is the predominant congener in lower trophic levels. For marine birds and mammals accumulation ratios of BDE99 and 100 are similar to or higher than ratios of persistent PCBs.     

Faroe Shelf Water

Faroe Shelf Water (FSW) is the water mass that occupies the shallow parts of the Faroe Shelf, surrounding the Faroe Islands (62°N, 7°W). Intensive tidal mixing induces a high degree of homogeneity and the circulation system allows a partial isolation from surrounding waters. This water mass, therefore, supports a unique ecosystem of great importance for commercial fish stocks and studies have shown a clear dependence of the ecosystem on the physical processes that maintain this system and control the exchange between the FSW and the off-shelf waters. In order to identify and quantify these processes, a large observational dataset has been analysed and related to alternative theories. From this analysis, the extent and properties of the FSW have been quantified and the degree of stratification explained in terms of the Simpson–Hunter theory. The residual clockwise circulation system, which is responsible for the partial isolation from off-shelf waters, is shown to be mainly generated by tidal rectification. The typical exchange rate of water between the FSW and the off-shelf regimes has been determined by the use of simple models based on the heat and the salt budgets but the actual exchange rate is found to vary considerably in time and space. These results support earlier suggestions that this exchange is the main limiting factor for the phytoplankton spring bloom on the Faroe Shelf and that variations in exchange rate are responsible for the large inter-annual variation in spring bloom timing and intensity. The observations indicate that the on-shelf/off-shelf exchange intensity is not symmetrically distributed around the shelf, but rather concentrated around the narrow southern tip of the Faroe Shelf, where off-shelf waters during intensive exchange events may be imported all the way to the shore.     

Effective stiffness and displacement capacity of short reinforced concrete columns with low concrete quality

Hysteretic behaviour of reinforced concrete members is strongly dependent on local conditions such as quality of materials, workmanship, construction and design practice. Low strength concrete was found in most of the damaged concrete structures after the earthquakes that have hit Eastern Europe in the past 50 years. Quality of concrete had a great impact, especially on shear controlled reinforced concrete short columns. Existing models of the effective strength, stiffness and deformation capacity of structural members need to be confirmed locally by experimental research as the large data sets used to calibrate the analytical models comprise results obtained on specimens with various characteristics. In this study, effective stiffness and deformation models available in literature are compared with the results of an experimental testing program conducted by the authors to investigate the hysteretic response of reinforced concrete short columns with low concrete strength, designed and detailed according to the local practice in the past. The hysteretic behaviour of the specimens is presented together with a comparison of the experimental data with predicted values and conclusions on the suitability of the applied models are drawn.     

Gaseous and Particulate Oxidized and Reduced Nitrogen Species in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer in Scandinavia in Spring

Observations of the concentration of several nitrogen containing compounds at five rural Scandinavian sites during March–June 1993 are reported. Total nitrate (NO ₃ ^- + HNO₃) and total ammonium (NH ₄ ⁺ + NH₃) were measured by denuder and filter pack. In general the methods agree well. At all sites the particulate fraction dominated, with the largest fraction of NO ₃ ^- and the lowest of NH ₄ ⁺ at the sites which were closest to the emission sources. The fraction of NO ₃ ^- of total nitrate increased with increasing NO₂ concentrations, indicating that the nighttime conversion of NO₂ to NO ₃ ^- is an important route of formation for NO ₃ ^- . A positive correlation was found between HNO₃ and O₃ in June at all sites, while no correlation was found early in the spring. Model calculations were made with a lagrangian boundary layer photooxidant model for the whole period, and compared to the measured concentrations. The calculated ratio between mean observed and modelled daily maximum concentrations of ozone over the measurement period were within +/–10% at all sites. The models ability to describe the daily ozone maximum concentration was satisfactory with an average deviation of 19–22% from the observed concentrations. HNO₃ was underestimated by over 50% at all sites except the one closest to the emission sources. The correlation between modelled and observed concentrations was generally best for the sites with shortest transport distance from the sources of emission.     

A Unifying Phase Diagram for the Dynamics of Sheared Solids and Granular Materials

We present a simple unifying model that can be used to analyze, within a single framework, different dynamic regimes of shear deformation of brittle, plastic, and granular materials. The basic dynamic regimes seen in the response of both solids and granular materials to slowly increasing loading are scale-invariant behavior with power law statistics, quasi-periodicity of system size events, and persisting long term mode switching between the former two types of response. The model provides universal analytical mean field results on the statistics of failure events in the different regimes and distributed versus localized spatial responses. The results are summarized in a phase diagram spanned by three tuning parameters: dynamic strength change (weakening, neutral or strengthening) during slip events, dissipation of stress transfer (related to the void fraction in granular materials and damaged solids), and the ratio of shear rate over healing rate controlling the regaining of cohesion following failures in brittle solids. The mean field scaling predictions agree with experimental, numerical, and observational data on deformation avalanches of solids, granular materials, and earthquake faults. The model provides additional predictions that should be tested with future observation and simulation data.     

Effects of the Upstream-Flow Regime and Canyon Aspect Ratio on Non-linear Interactions Between a Street-Canyon Flow and the Overlying Boundary Layer

Large-scale structures within a rough-wall boundary layer generated over a cube array have recently been linked to small-scale fluctuations close to the roughness through a dynamical mechanism similar to amplitude modulation. Demonstrating the existence of this mechanism for different roughness types is a crucial step towards the development of a generic model for wind fluctuations in the urban canopy. Here the influence of the upstream roughness geometry (two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D)) and planform packing density (\( \lambda_{p} \)) and street-canyon aspect ratio on the non-linear interactions between large-scale momentum regions and the small scales induced by the presence of the roughness is studied within a wind tunnel using combined particle-image velocimetry and hot-wire anemometry. A multi-time delay linear stochastic estimation is used to decompose the flow into large scales that participate in modulation and the remaining small scales. Using three different upstream roughness configurations composed of either 3D cubes or 2D rectangular blocks it is shown that the upstream roughness configuration has an influence on the non-linear interactions in the rough-wall boundary layer. Analysis of the turbulence skewness decomposition shows a change in the location of the maximum of the term \( \overline{{u_{L}^{\prime} u_{S}^{\prime 2}}} \), which represents the influence of the large-scale momentum regions on the small scales, whilst the temporal correlation shows a modification of the interaction located closer to the roughness with a change from 3D to 2D roughness. Furthermore, a two-point spatio–temporal correlation demonstrates that the non-linear relationship is significantly modified in the wake-interference-flow regime compared to the skimming-flow regime. Through skewness decomposition and temporal correlations the canyon aspect ratio is shown to have no influence on the non-linear interactions, indicating that the mechanism depends only on the flow developing upstream. Finally, although the upstream roughness configuration is shown to influence the non-linear interactions, the nature of the mechanism remains the same in all configurations.     

Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region

The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is used to project transient impacts of changes in climate on vegetation of the Barents Region. We incorporate additional plant functional types, i.e. shrubs and defined different types of open ground vegetation, to improve the representation of arctic vegetation in the global model. We use future climate projections as well as control climate data for 1981–2000 from a regional climate model (REMO) that assumes a development of atmospheric CO₂-concentration according to the B2-SRES scenario [IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution working group I to the Third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)]. The model showed a generally good fit with observed data, both qualitatively when model outputs were compared to vegetation maps and quantitatively when compared with observations of biomass, NPP and LAI. The main discrepancy between the model output and observed vegetation is the overestimation of forest abundance for the northern parts of the Kola Peninsula that cannot be explained by climatic factors alone. Over the next hundred years, the model predicted an increase in boreal needle leaved evergreen forest, as extensions northwards and upwards in mountain areas, and as an increase in biomass, NPP and LAI. The model also projected that shade-intolerant broadleaved summergreen trees will be found further north and higher up in the mountain areas. Surprisingly, shrublands will decrease in extent as they are replaced by forest at their southern margins and restricted to areas high up in the mountains and to areas in northern Russia. Open ground vegetation will largely disappear in the Scandinavian mountains. Also counter-intuitively, tundra will increase in abundance due to the occupation of previously unvegetated areas in the northern part of the Barents Region. Spring greening will occur earlier and LAI will increase. Consequently, albedo will decrease both in summer and winter time, particularly in the Scandinavian mountains (by up to 18%). Although this positive feedback to climate could be offset to some extent by increased CO₂ drawdown from vegetation, increasing soil respiration results in NEE close to zero, so we cannot conclude to what extent or whether the Barents Region will become a source or a sink of CO₂.