Learning from CDM SD tool experience for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement (PA) emphasizes the intrinsic relationship between climate change and sustainable development (SD) and welcomes the 2030 agenda for the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Yet, there is a lack of assessment approaches to ensure that climate and development goals are achieved in an integrated fashion and trade-offs avoided. Article 6.4 of the PA introduces a new Sustainable Mitigation Mechanism (SMM) with the dual aim to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and foster SD. The Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a similar objective and in 2014, the CDM SD tool was launched by the Executive Board of the CDM to highlight the SD benefits of CDM activities. This article analyses the usefulness of the CDM SD tool for stakeholders and compares the SD tool’s SD reporting requirements against other flexible mechanisms and multilateral standards to provide recommendations for improvement. A key conclusion is that the Paris Agreement’s SMM has a stronger political mandate than the CDM to measure that SD impacts are ‘real, measurable and long-term’. Recommendations for an improved CDM SD tool are a relevant starting point to develop rules, modalities, and procedures for SD assessment in Article 6.4 as well as for other cooperative mitigation approaches.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Research findings are relevant for developing the rulebook of modalities and procedures for Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, which introduces a new mechanism for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable development. Lessons learnt from the CDM SD tool and recommendations for enhanced SD assessment are discussed in context of Article 6 cooperative approaches, and make a timely contribution to inform negotiations on the rulebook agreed by the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement.     

Does Magnetic Flux Submerge at Flux Cancelation Sites?

Simultaneous measurements of the magnetic fields in the photosphere and chromosphere were used to investigate if magnetic flux is submerging at sites between adjacent opposite polarity magnetic network elements in which the flux is observed to decrease or `cancel'. These data were compared with chromospheric and coronal intensity images to establish the timing of the emission structures associated with these magnetic structures as a function of height. We found that most of the cancelation sites show either that the bipole is observed longer in the photosphere than in the chromosphere and corona (44%) or that the timing difference of the disappearance of the bipole between these levels of the atmosphere is unresolved. The magnetic axis lengths of the structures associated with the cancelation sites are on average slightly smaller in the chromosphere than the photosphere. These observations suggest that magnetic flux is retracting below the surface for most, if not all, of the cancelation sites studied.     

Coming to Terms with “Integrated Coastal Management”: Problems of Meaning and Method in a New Arena of Resource Regulation

This paper traces the emergence of coastal management in the late twentieth century and assesses the social and spatial implications of the new Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) philosophy that guides national regulatory programs worldwide. A review of the epistemology of ICM reveals its link to the United Nations marine regulatory regime (the Law of the Sea) and the sustainable development paradigm embraced at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. I suggest that the resulting regulatory regime facilitates the opening of coastal zones worldwide to aggressive state and global capital investment. By promoting the overhaul of existing social and spatial organization in coastal zones and by asserting the primacy of resource access for modern economic interests, ICM may introduce more rather than less social conflict and ecological degradation. To illustrate this dynamic, I examine the case of coral reef management in general, and in the context of the Sri Lankan ICM program.     

Chronology of late Holocene climatic events in the northern North Atlantic based on AMS 14C dates and tephra markers from the volcano Hekla,Iceland

A combination of AMS¹⁴C dating and tephrochronology has been used to date late Holocene oceanographic events in a 335 cm marine record, covering about 4600 cal. yr with sedimentation rates exceeding 80 cm 1000 yr⁻¹. The core site is located 50 km offshore on the northern Icelandic shelf. Tephra markers from Iceland serve to correlate the marine and terrestrial records. Especially notable is the presence of three geochemically correlated tephra markers from the Icelandic volcano Hekla (Hekla 4, Hekla 3 and Hekla 1104). Benthic and planktonic foraminiferal abundance and distribution as well as the petrography of the sand fraction of the muddy shelf sediments are used as palaeoceanographic proxies. The foraminiferal assemblages reflect a general cooling trend during the last 4600 yr. A marked drop in sea‐surface temperatures is registered at about 3000 cal. yr BP, corresponding to the level of the Hekla 3 tephra. There is faunal indication of temperature amelioration during the Medieval Warm Period and a cooling again during the Little Ice Age. Periods of ice rafting events are indicated by ice rafted debris (IRD) concentrations, e.g. at around 3000 cal. yr BP and during the Little Ice Age. The former event occurred just prior to the deposition of the Hekla 3 tephra marker, the largest Holocene Hekla eruption. A correlation with terrestrial climatic events in Iceland is presented. A standard marine reservoir correction of 400 ¹⁴C yr appears to be reasonable, at least during periods with high influence of water masses from the Irminger Current on the northern Icelandic shelf. An increase to ca. 530 ¹⁴C yr may have occurred, however, when water masses derived from the East Greenland Current were dominant in the area. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gravel sediment routing from widespread,low- intensity landscape disturbance,Current River Basin,Missouri

During the last 160 years, land-use changes in the Ozarks have had the potential to cause widespread, low-intensity delivery of excess amounts of gravel-sized sediment to stream channels. Previous studies have indicated that this excess gravel bedload is moving in wave-like forms through Ozarks drainage basins. The longitudinal, areal distribution of gravel bars along 160 km of the Current River, Missouri, was evaluated to determine the relative effects of valley-scale controls, tributary basin characteristics, and lagged sediment transport in creating areas of gravel accumulations. The longitudinal distribution of gravel-bar area shows a broad scale wave-like form with increases in gravel-bar area weakly associated with tributary junctions. Secondary peaks of gravel area with 1·8–4·1 km spacing (disturbance reaches) are superimposed on the broad form. Variations in valley width explain some, but not all, of the short-spacing variation in gravel-bar area. Among variables describing tributary drainage basin morphometry, present-day land use and geologic characteristics, only drainage area and road density relate even weakly to gravel-bar areal inventories. A simple, channel network-based sediment routing model shows that many of the features of the observed longitudinal gravel distribution can be replicated by uniform transport of sediment from widespread disturbances through a channel network. These results indicate that lagged sediment transport may have a dominant effect on the synoptic spatial distribution of gravel in Ozarks streams; present-day land uses are only weakly associated with present-day gravel inventories; and valley-scale characteristics have secondary controls on gravel accumulations in disturbance reaches. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty in recurrence rates of large magnitude events due to short historic catalogs

Seismic hazard analysis requires knowledge of the recurrence rates of large magnitude earthquakes that drive the hazard at low probabilities of interest for seismic design. Earthquake recurrence is usually determined through studies of the historic earthquake catalogue for a given region. Reliable historic catalogues generally span time periods of 100–200 years in North America, while large magnitude events (M?≥?7) have recurrence rates on the order of hundreds or thousands of years in many areas, resulting in large uncertainty in recurrence rates for large events. Using Monte Carlo techniques and assuming typical recurrence parameters, we simulate earthquake catalogues that span long periods of time. We then split these catalogues into smaller catalogues spanning 100–200 years that mimic the length of historic catalogues. For each of these simulated “historic” catalogues, a recurrence rate for large magnitude events is determined. By comparing recurrence rates from one historic-length catalogue to another, we quantify the uncertainty associated with determining recurrence rates from short historic catalogues. The use of simulations to explore the uncertainty (rather than analytical solutions) allows us flexibility to consider issues such as the relative contributions of aleatory versus epistemic uncertainty, and the influence of fitting method, as well as lending insight into extreme-event statistics. The uncertainty in recurrence rates of large (M?>?7) events is about a factor of two in regions of high seismicity, due to the shortness of historic catalogues. This uncertainty increases greatly with decreasing seismic activity. Uncertainty is dependent on the length of the catalogue as well as the fitting method used (least squares vs. maximum likelihood). Examination of 90th percentile recurrence rates reveals that epistemic uncertainty in the true parameters may cause recurrence rates determined from historic catalogues to be uncertain by a factor greater than 50.     

Development and Testing of a Field Screening Method Based on Bubbling Extraction and Photoionization Detection for Measurement of Benzene and Total VOCs

A field screening method was developed for rapid measurement of benzene and gasoline range total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHg) concentrations in groundwater. The method is based on collecting photoionization detector (PID) measurements from vapor samples. The vapor samples are collected by bubbling air through groundwater samples (air sparging) with a constant volume, temperature and sparging rate. The level of accuracy, sensitivity, precision, and statistical significance of the estimated concentrations, derived from the screening method, are comparable to conventional laboratory analytical results at concentrations equal to or greater than 150 µg/L for benzene and greater than 50 µg/L for TPHg. The method's concentration estimations can assist in making real‐time decisions regarding location of dissolved plumes and light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) source zones at many fuel release sites. The screening method was tested in the laboratory and in the field with 208 and 107 samples, respectively. The study concludes that the screening method can be used as a tool to aid in completing a site conceptual model as well as analyzing groundwater from monitoring wells.     

GhostNet marine debris survey in the Gulf of Alaska--satellite guidance and aircraft observations

Marine debris, particularly debris that is composed of lost or abandoned fishing gear, is recognized as a serious threat to marine life, vessels, and coral reefs. The goal of the GhostNet project is the detection of derelict nets at sea through the use of weather and ocean models, drifting buoys and satellite imagery to locate convergent areas where nets are likely to collect, followed by airborne surveys with trained observers and remote sensing instruments to spot individual derelict nets. These components of GhostNet were first tested together in the field during a 14-day marine debris survey of the Gulf of Alaska in July and August 2003. Model, buoy, and satellite data were used in flight planning. A manned aircraft survey with visible and IR cameras and a LIDAR instrument located debris in the targeted locations, including 102 individual pieces of debris of anthropogenic or terrestrial origin.     

A Method for Direct Assessment of the “Non Rainfall” Atmospheric Water Cycle: Input and Evaporation From the Soil

“Non rainfall” atmospheric water (dew, fog, vapour adsorption) supplies a small amount of water to the soil surface that may be important for arid soil micro-hydrology and ecology. Research into the direct effects of this water on soil is, however, lacking due to instrument and technical constraints. We report on the design, development, construction and findings of an automated microlysimeter instrument to directly measure this soil water cycle in Stellenbosch, South Africa during winter. Performance of the microlysimeter was satisfactory and results obtained were compared to literature and fell within the expected range. “Non rainfall” atmospheric water input into bare soil (river sand) was between 0.88 and 1.10?mm per night while evaporation was between 1.39 and 2.71?mm per day. The study also attempted to differentiate the composition of “non rainfall” atmospheric water and results showed that vapour adsorption contributed the bulk of this input.