Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization

We assess the future of coal under alternative climate stabilization regimes, investigating how the quantity and location of future coal production, trade and use depends upon five factors: the supply-side constraint of resource depletion, diversification and deepening of international trade, economic growth, trends in energy intensity, and the availability of coal-fired carbon-free electric generation technology (IGCC-CCS). Using the Phoenix computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that coal is sensitive to demand-side assumptions about economic growth and energy-saving structural or technological change. In a 550 ppm stabilization emission tax scenario, the gobal coal industry initially declines sharply and then rebounds, in 2050 reaching roughly the same size as it is today—but only if IGCC-CCS is available by 2020. Under alternative stabilization regimes, IGCC-CCS penetration is a key influence on production and imports in major coal regions, where it interacts with extraction costs driven by the rate of depletion relative to trade partners.     

The petrogenesis of the Lac Guyer komatiites and basalts and the nature of the komatiite-komatiitic basalt compositional gap

A sequence of ultramafic rocks in the Lac Guyer Archean greenstone belt exhibit brecciated flow tops, pillow structures, and spinifex textures testifying to their volcanic origin. Massive, spinifex-textured and differentiated flows in the sequence have the chemical characteristics of peridotitic komatiite, with MgO ranging from 19–25 wt.%. Associated pillowed flows have compositions that straddle the conventional boundary between komatiite and komatiitic basalt with MgO contents ranging from 16 to 19 wt.% MgO and are best termed pyroxenitic komatiites. Unlike other komatiitic occurrences, the peridotitic and pyroxenitic komatiites at Lac Guyer constitute a continuous chemical spectrum with no evidence of population minimum near 18 wt.% MgO. The contrasting behaviour of highly compatible elements, such as Ni and Cr, versus incompatible elements, such as Zr, indicate that this compositional spectrum was produced by a variation in the extent of partial melting (10–40%) of a garnet lherzolite source in the Archean mantle. The pyroxenitic komatiites represent liquids produced during lower (10–20%) degrees of melting during which garnet remained in the mantle residue. However, a change in slope in the distribution of Zr vs. Y between the pyroxenitic and the peridotitic komatiites indicates that garnet was completely consumed at the more extensive degrees of melting which produced the peridotitic komatiites. The Lac Guyer volcanic rocks display a population minimum at 15 wt.% MgO separating komatiitic magmas whose compositions are controlled by partial melting from basalts whose composition is controlled by crystal fractionation. The population minimum near 18 wt.% MgO which is taken as the boundary between komatiite and komatiitic basalt may have a similar origin.     

北大西洋北部中全新世以来古海洋环境记录

利用主成分分析法对冰岛北部陆架 MD99-2275 孔中全新世以来沉积物硅藻数据进行研究发现,5 000 - 3 000 a B.P.,冰岛北部陆架表层古海水温度逐渐上升,来自印明格暖流的北大西洋暖水对该区域的影响有所增强.自 3 000 a B.P.以来,表层海水温度开始稳步下降,北大西洋暖水水团的影响逐步减弱,而来自东格陵兰寒流和东冰岛海流的极地冷水水团的影响显著加强.在晚全新世气候逐渐变冷的过程中,发生了几次短期而显著的气候变冷事件,分别出现在 3 000 - 2 600 a B.P.,1 300 - 1 000 a B.P.及 600- 200 a B.P..该中晚全新世古海洋环境记录与格陵兰冰芯(GSIP2)氧同位素气候记录存在良好的对应关系,也与冰岛北部陆架其他海水温度记录有较好的一致性.而冰岛北部陆架区域海底地形的复杂性和海流分布的差异性,以及所采用研究方法的不同则导致该区域各古海水温度记录之间也存在一定的差异性.