Quantitative estimates of interplate coupling inferred from outer rise earthquakes

Interplate coupling plays an important role in the seismogenesis of great interplate earthquakes at subduction zones. The spatial and temporal variations of such coupling control the patterns of subduction zone seismicity. We calculate stresses in the outer rise based on a model of oceanic plate bending and coupling at the interplate contact, to quantitatively estimate the degree of interplate coupling for the Tonga, New Hebrides, Kurile, Kamchatka, and Marianas subduction zones. Depths and focal mechanisms of outer rise earthquakes are used to constrain the stress models. We perform waveform modeling of body waves from the GDSN network to obtain reliable focal depth estimates for 24 outer rise earthquakes. A propagator matrix technique is used to calculate outer rise stresses in a bending 2-D elastic plate floating on a weak mantle. The modeling of normal and tangential loads simulates the total vertical and shear forces acting on the subducting plate. We estimate the interplate coupling by searching for an optimal tangential load at the plate interface that causes the corresponding stress regime within the plate to best fit the earthquake mechanisms in depth and location.We find the estimated mean tangential load over 125–200 km width ranging between 166 and 671 bars for Tonga, the New Hebrides, the Kuriles, and Kamchatka. This magnitude of the coupling stress is generally compatible with the predicted shear stress at the plate contact from thermal-mechanical plate models byMolnar andEngland (1990), andVan den Buekel andWortel (1988). The estimated tectonic coupling,F _tc , is on the order of 10¹²–10¹³ N/m for all the subduction zones.F _tc for Tonga and New Hebrides is about twice as high as in the Kurile and Kamchatka arcs. The corresponding earthquake coupling forceF _ec appears to be 1–10% of the tectonic coupling from our estimates. There seems to be no definitive correlation of the degree of seismic coupling with the estimated tectonic coupling. We find that outer rise earthquakes in the Marianas can be modeled using zero tangential load.     

Fingerprinting of soil organic matter as a proxy for assessing climate and vegetation changes in last interglacial palaeosols (Veldwezelt, Belgium)

Soil characteristics in palaeosols are an important source of information on past climate and vegetation. Fingerprinting of soil organic matter (SOM) by pyrolysis-GC/MS is assessed as a proxy for palaeo-reconstruction in the complex of humic layers on top of the Rocourt pedosequence in the Veldwezelt-Hezerwater outcrop (Belgian loess belt). The fingerprints of the extractable SOM of different soil units are related to total organic carbon content, δ¹³C and grain-size analysis. Combined results indicate that the lower unit of the humic complex reflects a stable soil surface, allowing SOM build-up, intensive microbial activity and high decomposition. Higher in the profile, decomposition and microbial activity decrease. This is supported by a shift in the isotopic signal, an increased U ratio and evidence of wildfires. Although the chemical composition of the extracted SOM differed greatly from recent SOM, fingerprinting yielded detailed new information on SOM degree of decomposition and microbial contribution, allowing the reconstruction of palaeo-environmental conditions during pedogenesis.     

Sources of Nutrients and Fecal Indicator Bacteria to Nearshore Waters on the North Shore of Kaua`i (Hawai`i,USA)

Water quality monitoring in Hanalei Bay, Kaua`i (Hawai`i, USA) has documented intermittent high concentrations of nutrients (nitrate, phosphate, silica, and ammonium) and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB, i.e., enterococci and Escherichia coli) in nearshore waters and spurred concern that contaminated groundwater might be discharging into the bay. The present study sought to identify and track sources of nutrients and FIB to four beaches in Hanalei Bay and one beach outside the bay, together representing a wide range of land uses. ²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra activity, salinity, nutrient and FIB concentrations were measured in samples from the coastal aquifer, the nearshore ocean, springs, the Hanalei River, and smaller streams. In addition, FIB concentrations in beach sands were measured at each site, and the enterococcal surface protein (esp) gene assay was used to investigate whether the observed FIB originated from a human source. Nutrient concentrations in groundwater were significantly higher than in nearshore water, inversely correlated to salinity, and highly site specific, indicating local controls on groundwater quality. Fluxes of groundwater into Hanalei Bay were calculated using a mass-balance approach and represented at least 2–10% of river discharges. However, submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) may provide 2.7 times as much nitrate + nitrite to Hanalei Bay as does the Hanalei River. It may also provide significant fluxes of phosphate and ammonium, comprising 15% and 20% of Hanalei River inputs, respectively. SGD-derived silica inputs to the bay comprised less than 3% of Hanalei River inputs. FIB concentrations in groundwater were typically lower than those in nearshore water, suggesting that significant FIB inputs from SGD are unlikely. Positive esp gene assays suggested that some enterococci in environmental samples were of human fecal origin. Identifying how nutrients and FIB enter nearshore waters will help environmental managers address pressing water quality issues, including exceedances of the state Enterococcus water quality standard and nutrient loading to coral reefs.     

Lithological controls on biological activity and groundwater chemistry in Quaternary sediments

Depth profiles of solute chemistry and sulfate isotopic compositions are presented for groundwater and pore water in a sequence of Quaternary glacial outwash sediments. Sand units show evidence for hydraulic connection to the surface and thus modern sources of solutes. Finer‐grained sediments show a general pattern of increasing solute concentrations with depth, with sulfate derived from ancient rainwater and pyrite oxidation in the soil/drift. In these sediments sulfate has undergone bacterial sulfate reduction (BSR) to produce biogenic sulfide. In clay sediments, with d₁₀ ≤ 1·6 µm, high concentrations of sulfate and acetate now co‐exist, implying that BSR is inhibited. The correlation with smaller sediment grain size indicates that this is due to pore size exclusion of the sulfate reducing bacteria. Mechanical restriction of microbial function thus provides a fundamental limitation on microbial respiration in buried clay‐rich sediments, which acts as a control on the chemical evolution of their pore waters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application and evaluation of a snowmelt runoff model in the Tamor River basin,Eastern Himalaya using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) data assimilation approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree‐day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash–Sutcliffe metric ~0.84, annual volume bias < 3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002–2006 period is estimated to be 29.7 ± 2.9% (which includes 4.2 ± 0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3 ± 2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000–5500 m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9 ± 3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9 ± 1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree‐day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GPU accelerated radio astronomy signal convolution

The increasing array size of radio astronomy interferometers is causing the associated computation to scale quadratically with the number of array signals. Consequently, efficient usage of alternate processing architectures should be explored in order to meet this computational challenge. Affordable parallel processors have been made available to the general scientific community in the form of the commodity graphics card. This work investigates the use of the Graphics Processing Unit in the parallelisation of the combined conjugate multiply and accumulation stage of a correlator for a radio astronomy array. Using NVIDIA’s Compute Unified Device Architecture, our testing shows processing speeds from one to two orders of magnitude faster than a Central Processing Unit approach.     

Comparison of linear and nonlinear dimension reduction techniques for automated process monitoring of a decentralized wastewater treatment facility

Multivariate statistical methods for online process monitoring have been widely applied to chemical, biological, and engineered systems. While methods based on principal component analysis (PCA) are popular, more recently kernel PCA (KPCA) and locally linear embedding (LLE) have been utilized to better model nonlinear process data. Additionally, various forms of dynamic and adaptive monitoring schemes have been proposed to address time-varying features in these processes. In this analysis, we extend a common simulation study in order to account for autocorrelation and nonstationarity in process data and comprehensively compare the monitoring performances of static, dynamic, adaptive, and adaptive–dynamic versions of PCA, KPCA, and LLE. Furthermore, we evaluate a nonparametric method to set thresholds for monitoring statistics and compare results with the standard parametric approaches. We then apply these methods to real-world data collected from a decentralized wastewater treatment system during normal and abnormal operations. From the simulation study, adaptive–dynamic versions of all three methods generally improve results when the process is autocorrelated and nonstationary. In the case study, adaptive–dynamic versions of PCA, KPCA, and LLE all flag a strong system fault, but nonparametric thresholds considerably reduce the number of false alarms for all three methods under normal operating conditions.     

Assessing the additive risks of PSII herbicide exposure to the Great Barrier Reef

Herbicide residues have been measured in the Great Barrier Reef lagoon at concentrations which have the potential to harm marine plant communities. Monitoring on the Great Barrier Reef lagoon following wet season discharge show that 80% of the time when herbicides are detected, more than one are present. These herbicides have been shown to act in an additive manner with regards to photosystem-II inhibition. In this study, the area of the Great Barrier Reef considered to be at risk from herbicides is compared when exposures are considered for each herbicide individually and also for herbicide mixtures. Two normalisation indices for herbicide mixtures were calculated based on current guidelines and PSII inhibition thresholds. The results show that the area of risk for most regions is greatly increased under the proposed additive PSII inhibition threshold and that the resilience of this important ecosystem could be reduced by exposure to these herbicides.     

Northern fulmars as biological monitors of trends of plastic pollution in the eastern North Pacific

Marine plastic debris is a global issue, which highlights the need for internationally standardized methods of monitoring plastic pollution. The stomach contents of beached northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) have proven a cost-effective biomonitor in Europe. However, recent information on northern fulmar plastic ingestion is lacking in the North Pacific. We quantified the stomach contents of 67 fulmars from beaches in the eastern North Pacific in 2009-2010 and found that 92.5% of fulmars had ingested an average of 36.8 pieces, or 0.385g of plastic. Plastic ingestion in these fulmars is among the highest recorded globally. Compared to earlier studies in the North Pacific, our findings indicate an increase in plastic ingestion over the past 40years. This study substantiates the use of northern fulmar as biomonitors of plastic pollution in the North Pacific and suggests that the high levels of plastic pollution in this region warrant further monitoring.     

A three-dimensional biophysical model of Karenia brevis dynamics on the west Florida shelf: A look at physical transport and potential zooplankton grazing controls

The development of accurate predictive models of toxic dinoflagellate blooms is of great ecological importance, particularly in regions that are most susceptible to their detrimental effects. This is especially true along the west Florida shelf (WFS) and coast, where episodic bloom events of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis often wreak havoc on the valuable commercial fisheries and tourism industries of west Florida. In an effort to explain the dynamics at work within the maintenance and termination phases of a red tide, a simple three-dimensional coupled biophysical model was used in the analysis of the October 1999 red tide offshore Sarasota, Florida. Results of the numerical experiments indicate that: (1) measured and modeled flowfields were capable of transporting the observed offshore inoculum of K. brevis to within 16 km of the coastal boundary; (2) background concentrations (1000 cells L⁻¹) of K. brevis could grow to a red tide of over 2×10⁶ cells L⁻¹ in little more than a month, assuming an estuarine initiation site with negligible offshore advection, no grazing losses, negligible competition from other phytoplankton groups, and no nutrient limitation; (3) maximal grazing pressure could not prevent the initiation of a red tide or cause its termination, assuming no other losses to algal biomass and a zooplankton community ingestion rate similar to that of Acartia tonsa; and (4) the light-cued ascent behavior of K. brevis served as an aggregational mechanism, concentrating K. brevis at the 55 μE m⁻² s⁻¹ isolume when mean concentrations of K. brevis exceeded 100,000 cells L⁻¹. Further improvements in model fidelity will be accomplished by the future inclusion of phytoplankton competitors, disparate nutrient availability and limitation schemes, a more realistic rendering of the spectral light field and the attendant effects of photo-inhibition and compensation, and a mixed community of vertically-migrating proto- and metazoan grazers. These model refinements are currently under development and shall be used to aid progress toward an operational model of red tide forecasting along the WFS.