Projected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean of importance to tuna fisheries

Future physical and chemical changes to the ocean are likely to significantly affect the distribution and productivity of many marine species. Tuna are of particular importance in the tropical Pacific, as they contribute significantly to the livelihoods, food and economic security of island states. Changes in water properties and circulation will impact on tuna larval dispersal, preferred habitat distributions and the trophic systems that support tuna populations throughout the region. Using recent observations and ocean projections from the CMIP3 and preliminary results from CMIP5 climate models, we document the projected changes to ocean temperature, salinity, stratification and circulation most relevant to distributions of tuna. Under a business-as-usual emission scenario, projections indicate a surface intensified warming in the upper 400 m and a large expansion of the western Pacific Warm Pool, with most surface waters of the central and western equatorial Pacific reaching temperatures warmer than 29 °C by 2100. These changes are likely to alter the preferred habitat of tuna, based on present-day thermal tolerances, and in turn the distribution of spawning and foraging grounds. Large-scale shoaling of the mixed layer and increases in stratification are expected to impact nutrient provision to the biologically active layer, with flow-on trophic effects on the micronekton. Several oceanic currents are projected to change, including a strengthened upper equatorial undercurrent, which could modify the supply of bioavailable iron to the eastern Pacific.     

The Kuroshio Extension and its recirculation gyres

This paper reports on the strength and structure of the Kuroshio Extension and its recirculation gyres. In the time average, quasi-permanent recirculation gyres are found to the north and south of the Kuroshio Extension jet. The characteristics of these recirculations gyres are determined from the combined observations from the Kuroshio Extension System Study (KESS) field program (June 2004–June 2006) and include current meters, pressure and current recording inverted echo sounders, and subsurface floats. The position and strength of the recirculation gyres simulated by a high-resolution numerical model are found to be consistent with the observations. The circulation pattern that is revealed is of a complex system of multiple recirculation gyres that are embedded in the crests and troughs of the quasi-permanent meanders of the Kuroshio Extension. At the location of the KESS array, the Kuroshio Extension jet and its recirculation gyres transport of about 114 Sv. This represents a 2.7-fold increase in the transport of the current compared to the Kuroshio's transport at Cape Ashizuri before it separates from the coast and flows eastward into the open ocean. This enhancement in the current's transport comes from the development of the flanking recirculation gyres. Estimates from an array of inverted echo sounders and a high-resolution ocean general circulation model are of similar magnitude.     

Discussion session on star formation,molecular clouds and the interstellar medium

In this panel discussion contributions were made by K. Strom, L. Nordh and H. Zinnecker on the contributions of surveys to the study of star formation regions, by B. Burton on a survey of galactic H I and by E. Dwek on the detection of galactic supernovae by infrared surveys. The contributions of K. Strom, L. Nordh and E. Dwek are summarized here.     

Results from the Eso Large Program on Transneptunian Objects and Centaurs

BVRI photometry of 107 TNOs and Centaurs establishes the range of spectral gradients to be between –5 to 55%/100 nm (with one exception). A cluster of very red Cubewanos is firmly identified in orbits of low inclination and eccentricity beyond 40 AU from the Sun. Further correlations between surface colours and dynamical parameters (inclination and perihelion distance) are suggested for Cubewanos and scattered disk objects, but lack complete confidence for their reality. Plutinos and Centaurs do not show any clear correlation between surface colours and orbital parameters. We present in this paper 12 spectra obtained in the visible region and nine of them for which we obtained also near infrared spectra up to 2.4 microns. A few other objects have been observed, but the data are still under reduction and analysis. The principal reported results obtained are: (i) a wide range of visible slopes; (ii) evidence for surface variations on 2001 PT₁₃; and (iii) possible detection of few percent of water ice (1999 TC_36}, 2000 EB₁₇₃, 1999 DE₉, 2001 PT₁₃, 2000 QC₂₄₃, 1998 SG₃₅).     

The explosive phase of solar flares

The explosive phase of a flare can be defined by a simple photometric measurement of H film records of the flare development. Using the quantitative definition, improved correlations are found between the start of the explosive phase and the start of 10.7 cm radio bursts and Sudden Frequency Deviations compared to earlier correlations of the same data using visual estimates of the start of the explosive phase. Explosive development may be confined to only part of a flare.     

The influence of groundwater abstraction on interpreting climate controls and extreme recharge events from well hydrographs in semi-arid South Africa

There is a scarcity of long-term groundwater hydrographs from sub-Saharan Africa to investigate groundwater sustainability, processes and controls. This paper presents an analysis of 21 hydrographs from semi-arid South Africa. Hydrographs from 1980 to 2000 were converted to standardised groundwater level indices and rationalised into four types (C1–C4) using hierarchical cluster analysis. Mean hydrographs for each type were cross-correlated with standardised precipitation and streamflow indices. Relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were also investigated. The four hydrograph types show a transition of autocorrelation over increasing timescales and increasingly subdued responses to rainfall. Type C1 strongly relates to rainfall, responding in most years, whereas C4 notably responds to only a single extreme event in 2000 and has limited relationship with rainfall. Types C2, C3 and C4 have stronger statistical relationships with standardised streamflow than standardised rainfall. C3 and C4 changes are significantly (p <?0.05) correlated to the mean wet season ENSO anomaly, indicating a tendency for substantial or minimal recharge to occur during extreme negative and positive ENSO years, respectively. The range of different hydrograph types, sometimes within only a few kilometres of each other, appears to be a result of abstraction interference and cannot be confidently attributed to variations in climate or hydrogeological setting. It is possible that high groundwater abstraction near C3/C4 sites masks frequent small-scale recharge events observed at C1/C2 sites, resulting in extreme events associated with negative ENSO years being more visible in the time series.

     

Oyster (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crassostrea virginica</Emphasis>) Aquaculture Shifts Sediment Nitrogen Processes toward Mineralization over Denitrification

Filter-feeding bivalves, like oysters, couple pelagic primary production with benthic microbial processes by consuming plankton from the water column and depositing unassimilated material on sediment. Conceptual models suggest that at low to moderate oyster densities, this deposition can stimulate benthic denitrification by providing denitrifying bacteria with organic carbon and nitrogen (N). While enhanced denitrification has been found at oyster reefs, data from oyster aquaculture are limited and equivocal. This study measured seasonal rates of denitrification, as well as dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA), and dissolved inorganic N fluxes at a rack and bag eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) aquaculture farm. Consistent with models, denitrification was enhanced within the farm, with an average annual increase of 350% compared to a reference site. However, absolute denitrification rates were low relative to other coastal systems, reaching a maximum of 19.2 μmol m^?2 h^?1. Denitrification appeared to be nitrate (NO₃ ^?) limited, likely due to inhibited nitrification caused by sediment anoxia. Denitrification may also have been limited by competition for NO₃ ^? with DNRA, which accounted for an average of 76% of NO₃ ^? reduction. Consequently, direct release of ammonium (NH₄ ⁺) from mineralization to the water column was the most significant benthic N pathway, with seasonal rates exceeding 900 μmol m^?2 h^?1 within the farm. The enhanced N processes were spatially limited however, with significantly higher rates directly under oysters, compared to in between oyster racks. For commercial aquaculture farms like this, with moderate oyster densities (100–200 oysters m^?2), denitrification may be enhanced, but nonetheless limited by biodeposition-induced sediment anoxia. The resulting shift in the sediment N balance toward processes that regenerate reactive N to the water column rather than remove N is an important consideration for water quality.